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Conferences Current Daily Commentary (2005) (Public)
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Duncan	27-Oct-05, 08:20 AM (GMT)
"day late"
DJIA - A day late According to my Lockstep chart, we are a day late in establishing our positive peak. I won't speculate upon the why of it. But, today we established higher Highs and higher Lows. Unfortunately, the setup, with the Indices closing at their Lows, appears to ripe for decline tomorrow. S128a. The daily bar charts show the desire to roll over, and notice that the %R's have actually taken a negative direction for the day. Although 6 of the 7 nested, steeply slanted H&S Top formations have played out perfectly, we have failed the 7th, following its return move. Well, as Billy Joel sang, "6 out of 7 ain't bad." Or, was it "2 out of 3?" S131a. S132a. The slopes of the smoothers for the Indices in S133a are topping. The High for the Dow today exactly hit the blue Resistance line in S134a. I've cleaned up that chart a bit, including moving the red line slightly, and renaming it RS1, since it has been both a strong Resistance and a Support line. As to the blue lines, remember that they are straight line segments, used to approximate curves. As such, it is not clear exactly where to break them to change slope with time. On the assumption that we are going to dive from here, look at the long positive followed by shorter negative traverses between peaks last spring, when the market was rising. Now, the reverse is true, and the fall to Support from here will be the long, and therefore particularly painful move. As I have also said previously, if this negative cycle happens, the likely target will be that magical (merely psychological) 10,000 level. If we make that approach, the question of pivot or punchthrough will probably be difficult to predict. Right now, odds favor, I believe, a pivot, but more like a dead cat bounce. And looking farther ahead, if we don't break through the blue Resistance line, then we'll be into the end of the year, and I believe that the panic will begin, as money managers begin to see failing grades coming on their term papers. S133a. S134a. This is a good time to review the 2-year charts, to see how Alan's "flexible economy" is treating the stock markets. There are still plenty of Guri on TV who are talking about how wonderful the economy is. And how well companies are doing, And how it looks like we are going to get our end of year rally. I think that the most important thing that we now can see in these charts is the steady decline so far in the second half. Compare the Indices this year to the August to January rises last year. We seem to have gotten our little end of year rally from April to August this year. Remember, another crash is nowhere near as important to Alan as tilting an elusive, inflationary windmill, which may or may not be somewhere out there in the mists of the future. S136. - Charlie Miller 2005-10-26 _____________________________________________________________________ This nightly analysis and the accompanying charts are copyright 1999-2005 by C. E. Miller. Their distribution is free from cemcemcem@aol.com, and they may be freely distributed and/or published with proper attribution to the author, with the limitation that neither the text nor the charts shall be altered or edited in any way without the express permission of the author. Write to the above address to be added or to be removed from this mailing list.
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Duncan	27-Oct-05, 09:27 AM (GMT)
1. "try not to laugh"
D Check undernoted scam; I touches all the right buttons; and plenty people fall for it He advertises, what people want; the big engine merc coupe; neat And of course, you have to have the Italian angle; don’t scammers love that And those, who fall for it all The ploy of course, is just like the Nigerian scams; he is wanting you to wire him some cash That’s the long and the short of it You wire cash Subsequently, nothing happens Anyhow I look at all this, as a study of human behaviour Its like the markets; are there enough mugs out there? You bet, there are Adios Here comes the scam…. Hi, I must apologize for the delay in the response to your email, but I am literally overwhelmed by the number of offers I have received in the last 12 hours. First of all, I am the registered keeper and there is no outstanding finance on the car. It is not stolen, has no damage, no scratches or dents, no hidden defects. It is in immaculate condition and hasn't been involved in any accident. Unfortunately it has to go but it will be greatly missed... The price is cheap, because I am selling everything including our house as we have now found the campsite of our dreams and are getting ready to leave. My location is Cosenza, Italy and the car is being shipped from here. I have all the paper work proving ownership, and it will be delivered on foreign plates as it needs to be re-registered. There will be no problems regarding UK Customs policy on receiving the item. I will pay all the costs for getting it into the UK. You just therefore pay to register it as a UK vehicle. The selling price is £7,000.00 with shipping/handling included. The car will be delivered once the deposit is sent and it will arrive at your front door in maximum one week. If you agree on the selling price, please get back in touch ASAP in order to send you the payment and shipping details. Your prompt answer will be appreciated Jack
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Duncan	27-Oct-05, 10:54 AM (GMT)
2. "understand how you think, and you don’t try to trade every hour of the day"
H I have to say I don’t read it that much now I don’t like to be distracted with other peoples thoughts on where the market is heading. I have developed my own way of trading which suits my personality and risk tolerances. I used to trade using only Elliot waves I did make thousands but I also lost thousands, been convinced that the Elliott wave pattern that was playing out was correct and forgetting the basics, Elliott can do that to you. I have also used many other systems Turtle ect which now does not work because the markets are forever changing. I have spent thousands on trading systems and the software but the top and bottom of it all if you can understand how you think, and you don’t try to trade every hour of the day in other words you sit on your hands or go walk the dog then you will stop losing money. I cannot count how many times I have had a great trade and then I blow it all because I was unable to sit on my hands. I used to be a gambler, I am now a speculator, now before I place a trade I know what my risk is, I also use a target where I expect the market to go so that I can do a risk reward analyses. It can take a week or sometimes longer for the correct set-up with a good risk reward ratio but this is how real speculators operate. -----Original Message----- From: Duncan Robertson Sent: 27 October 2005 08:58 To: h Subject: What have you taken from reading sol http://www.shortorlong.com/ understanding markets a speculator WAITS Till he KNOWS he is right, and a gambler guesses one must have a plan with fixed rules & patience, & DISCIPLINE, to be able to implement ones plan almost everybody knows next to nothing about the mysteries of money so what to do? Learn, what not to do, then work on, what you need to do
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Duncan	27-Oct-05, 12:36 PM (GMT)
3. "‘shambolic’ "
http://www.independent.co.uk/ Paper Chase by Karla Adam and Andrew Wragg Today’s Covers: A picture of George Bush emerges from the shadows next to the headline “Bush at Bay” on the cover of The Independent. The Times and The Guardian lead with a story on the proposed smoking ban. British tennis stars Andy Murray and Tim Henman appear on the cover of The Telegraph clasping hands in their first-ever match. Stories Below: Isreal to be "wiped off the map" Smoking ban finalised, but... Fat-free shopping at Wal-Mart Humane genome unlocked -- Isreal to be “wiped off the map” -- Iran's new president stirred outrage by saying Israel should be "wiped off the map", reported The Independent. The president was speaking to 4000 students in Tehran who reportedly chanted “Death to Israel”. The refusal to officially recognise Israel will create a “diplomatic storm” and will present a “major obstacle to improved relations between Tehran and the West” said the paper. He also told the audience "leaders of the Muslim nation who recognise Israel will burn in the flames of anger of their own people". The remarks come at a time when Tehran is under suspicion over its nuclear weapons projects and involvement in the making of bombs in Iraq. A chorus of messages poured in from around the world, all condemning the hardline presidents’ words. "I think it reconfirms what we have been saying about the regime. It underscores the concerns we have about Iran's nuclear intentions," a White House press secretary told The Guardian. Germany called his comments "completely unacceptable", and France "firmly condemned them" reported the Telegraph. "The sickening comment will only further heighten the concern about Iran's nuclear ambitions" the Foreign Office told The Independent. -- Smoking ban finalised but with concessions -- Tony Blair has been forced into a U-turn on the smoking ban because of a feud in his Cabinet, reports the Independent. Patricia Hewitt, the Health Secretary, will announce today that the Health Bill will revert to the formula for a smoking ban promised in Labour’s election manifesto which she wanted to change because it was so flawed. The Telegraph added that days of fierce wrangling between ministers ended in an uneasy compromise exempting private clubs and pubs not serving food. The deal was strongly criticised by anti-smoking campaigners, doctors and Labour MPs, who protested at the “chaos” in the Cabinet and said that the Government would face backbench pressure for a stronger ban. The Times noted that thousands of pub landlords are to stop serving food to enable their customers to carry on smoking; its survey suggested one in five would adopt a no-food policy. It described the days of Cabinet discussions as ‘shambolic’ which culminated in a ban on smoking in pubs that serve food. The decision is said to have provoked fury among anti-smoking campaigners. The Guardian said that pubs exempt from the ban would not be permitted to allow smoking close to the bar area, in order to protect bar staff. It added that Tony Blair had made it clear that he did not favour a total ban on smoking; former Health Secretary, John Reid, an advocate of the adopted policy, said that he was trying to strike a fair balance between health and human rights. Sky News reported today that anyone caught contravening the smoking ban when it comes into force will receive a £50 fine. -- Fat-free shopping at Wal-Mart -- If you’re the wrong side of 40 and not as fit as you would like to be, don’t bother applying for a job at Wal-Mart, reports the Independent. That is the message to workers in America – revealed in a secret memo, laying out a plan by Wal-Mart to make it harder for older, less healthy people to get a job at one of its legion of stores in the US. The memo, written by Wal-Mart’s vice president in charge of benefits, says undesirable applicants could be discouraged by making physical activity part of the job, such as asking cashiers to demonstrate they are also able to collect trolleys. The tactics appear to be designed to drive down the bill for health care and other employee benefits at the company, which made $10bn in profits last year. The Times noted that the memo also suggests that a culture change to promote health and tackle obesity would reduce absenteeism, improve efficiency, cut costs such as healthcare payouts and drive out the lazy. The document stated that the company’s 1.3million workers in America, most of whom are low-income earners, “are getting sicker than the national population” – citing diabetes and coronary artery disease as major health issues. The BBC reported that Wal-Mart is calling for the minimum wage in the US to be raised but is not planning to lift the salaries it pays its own staff. The firm’s chief executive, Lee Scott, told analysts that the rate – stuck at $5.15 for almost a decade – was ‘out of date with the times’. He added that a higher minimum wage would help customers struggling to make ends meet but he resisted calls for Wal-Mart to raise its own wages. -- Human genome unlocked -- The first genetic “map” of human diversity is published today by scientists who describe it as a landmark achievement that will revolutionise medicine, reports the Independent. More than 200 researchers from six countries have spent three years and more than £80m deconstructing the human genome to discover the precise genetic difference between people. The Times claims that the genetic map could herald breakthroughs in the hunt for genes that influence common diseases such as cancer, asthma and diabetes. It added that while the Human Genome Project has sequenced the 99.9 per cent of DNA shared by every person, it is the other 01.per cent of individual idiosyncrasies that make people different and often underlie ill health. The project has seen the mapping of the entire genome of 269 people and identified tiny differences in key areas of DNA, noted the BBC. The study has looked at people from Africa, the Far East and western Europe. Researchers say their map could mean a 20-fold cut in the cost of carrying out research into the genetic causes of disease. The ‘HapMap’ heralds a new era in medical research, they claim. The Independent said the study – which was funded by governments and private industry – is available on the Internet. Mark Wolport, director of the Wellcome Trust, said: “The HapMap is a remarkable resource that will accelerate the search for genes involved in common ailments, such as heart disease and obesity.”
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Duncan	27-Oct-05, 01:02 PM (GMT)
4. "FOREX will not permit a euro breakdown"
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/willie102605.html
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Duncan	27-Oct-05, 01:02 PM (GMT)
5. "Silver Companies"
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/rakhimov102605.html
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Duncan	27-Oct-05, 01:02 PM (GMT)
6. "Dow Theory seeks to call the direction of the Primary trend"
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/bloom102605.html
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Duncan	27-Oct-05, 01:02 PM (GMT)
7. "the only way to get trade agreements honored is to make it extremely painful to those not honoring them"
October 27, 2005 Playing Hardball With Softwood by Mike Shedlock The New York Times Op-Ed contribution Lost in the Woods summarizes nicely the dispute between Canada and the US over lumber. Following are the key paragraphs: American and Canadian lawyers, lobbyists and negotiators have been fighting on and off over Canadian lumber exports to the United States since the 1980's. In 1982, a coalition of 250 American lumber mills claimed that Canadian provinces were subsidizing lumber exports by charging set "stumpage fees" - the price forest companies paid when harvesting standing timber - while American mills were paying open market prices. While the fight over things like stumpage fees is complex enough, it got a sharp twist in 2000 when Congress passed an amendment giving American companies injured by foreign trade the punitive duties imposed by the United States, which in the case of Canadian lumber exports now amount to about $5 billion. Never mind that the right of the United States to impose such duties is in dispute, or that the W.T.O. declared the Byrd amendment (named after its creator, Senator Robert C. Byrd) illegal. American and Canadian officials now face two lumber disputes: the old one about timber management practices; and the new one about who owns the money held by the Treasury. Making things uglier are conflicting decisions by a panel convened under the North American Free Trade Agreement and by the W.T.O., with the United States claiming that favorable rulings by the latter trump adverse rulings by the former. Canadians, including the normally friendly Canadian business community, are particularly outraged that Washington has rejected the Nafta panel decision. In Canadian eyes, this refusal by the United States betrays the central deal that underpinned Nafta in the first place: Canada allowed unfettered access to its energy resources and an end to restrictions on American investment in return for a binding method of settling disputes. As Prime Minister Paul Martin made clear recently, the dispute is coloring everything from the oil and gas trade (Canada is the largest foreign supplier of energy to the United States) to cooperation in the World Trade Organization, the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. If a supposedly big advocate for "free trade" can not even resolve a relatively minor dispute with its biggest trading partner when it is clearly wrong, what hope do any free trade talks have down the road? One has to wonder just how much the lumber lobby contributed to the Presidential and Congressional campaigns. Lawrence Herman and Gary Hufbauer, the authors of Lost in the Woods, proposed appointing "a special envoy with the authority to negotiate a final and durable compromise by a date certain, say June 2006". No! As far as I am concerned there is simply nothing to negotiate. The Byrd amendment is illegal, the US has illegally confiscated $5 billion from Canada, and worst of all the United States betrayed the deal that underpinned Nafta in the first place: Canada allowed unfettered access to its energy resources and an end to restrictions on American investment in return for a binding method of settling disputes. Not only does the US refuse to honor Nafta agreements with Canada, it will not even honor agreements as to resolving disputes. What's stupid about all of this is cheaper lumber is desperately needed in the US. With the cost of lumber high and lumber demands up in the wake of several hurricanes, not to mention the stupid waste of paying more than necessary to build houses just to make a few lumber barons rich, one would think that it would be to our advantage to increase the supply at a cheaper cost. But no. We do not honor our own agreements with our biggest trading partner, even when it is obviously to our own advantage to do so. That is a pretty pathetic record on "free trade" in general and Nafta specifically. It is certainly not a record one would expect unless from "free trade' advocates unless there was a lot of money sloshing around somewhere to keep the status quo of illegal tariffs. I suggest it is high time for Canada to demand the US honor its agreements. If the only way to get trade agreements honored is to make it extremely painful to those not honoring them, then so be it. Canada can end this mess in about two days flat if it wants to. As a free trade advocate, I recommend that Canada threaten to shut off all oil and Natural Gas deliveries to the US on one weeks notice if the US will not abide by its trade agreements. Playing hardball over softwood would not only end this nonsense in a hurry, it would also send a strong message to every country about the consequences of ignoring trade agreements for political convenience. Just to make sure people do not mistake this for USA bashing, the EU is equally guilty with their protectionist farm subsidies. The difference being (for now), no one has either the political will or a bat big enough to force changes in the EU. Canada does, and they should use it. Mike Shedlock / Mish http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/ Michael Shedlock (Mish) worked in the financial services industry for 20 years at some of the top institutions in the country including Harris Bank, the Bank of Montreal, Bank One, First National Bank of Chicago, and First Data Corp. Mish is currently doing economic and investment research for a number of clients. Copyright © 2005 Mike Shedlock
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Duncan	27-Oct-05, 01:02 PM (GMT)
8. "The bond market has recovered somewhat after holding the key 4.5% level on the 10 year Treasury Note. The bounce has been less than spectacular. The curve is expected to retain its flattening bias."
October 27, 2005 BondWorks by Levente Mady The key development last week was the ability of the bond market to bounce from a major support level in spite of the continuing relentless hawkish trash-talk from various Fed-heads. While I had a number of subscribers ask me what it would take to change my positive outlook on the long end of the bond market, these questions further underline the negative bias that still engulfs the bond market. I have considered these questions carefully, and I was able to come up with the following list of items that would damper my optimism toward bonds: (1) wage gains outpacing accepted inflation, (2) the US Dollar index falling precipitously, (3) the Fed suddenly switching from tightening to easing mode (this option might cause a blowoff rally before bonds sold off), (4) Ben - I want to throw money from helicopters to avoid deflation - Bernanke getting elected as the next Fed Chairman. I should also note that the negative impact of item 4 should be delayed. This list is not comprehensive, as other events might pop up that could influence the fixed income landscape. There is also a strong possibility that a number of the above items will occur at the same time or as a chain reaction. Discussing these scenarios in greater detail will follow during the course of the next few weeks. In the meantime, I just wanted to mention that the Bank of Canada raised its overnight rate 25 basis points to 3% and indicated that it remains in tightening mode going forward. NOTEWORTHY: The economic data was mixed again last week. The PPI inflation report confirmed the trend to higher headline inflation, while the core measure was muted again. Energy - obviously the main culprit for the higher prices - has meanwhile started a corrective phase. This is just anecdotal evidence, but gasoline prices in our neck of the woods have declined approximately 20% from the peak levels at the beginning of September. With lower energy prices and a stronger dollar I believe we have seen the highs in measured inflation in the short run. This dynamic will be a supportive factor for the bond market. Next week's economic data will be sparse again. Highlights in the US include the Durable Goods Report on Thursday and the GDP report along with Consumer Confidence and Personal Consumption data on Friday. The quarterly reporting season will continue to be in full swing. In Canada the CPI report on Tuesday will be the highlight to keep an eye on. INFLUENCES: The latest Treasury market surveys are still predominantly bearish. While a number of surveys are not near extreme levels any more, bond bears still outnumber bulls by a 2:1 margin. The 'smart money' commercials have marginally decreased their long positions in the 10 year note futures from 142k to 128k this past week. This number has no added value for forecasting bonds at this point. Seasonals are now positive for the bond market. On the technical front, the 10 year Treasury note has managed to hold the 4.5% level and bounced to a lower yield. RATES: US Long Bond futures closed at 113-23, up a dollar this past week, while the yield on the US 10-year note decreased 10 basis points to 4.38%. The Canada - US 10 year spread was in 9 bps to -35 basis points. This spread has more room to narrow, so traders are advised to remain short Canadian 10 year bonds against a long position in US 10 year bonds. This trade was initiated at pick-up 50 basis points. The belly of the Canadian curve outperformed the wings by 4 basis points last week. Selling Canada 3.25% 12/2006 and Canada 5.75% 6/2033 to buy Canada 5.25% 6/2012 was at pick-up of 16 basis points. I would like to reiterate last week's comment: we are pushing into neutral territory, all you little bond portfolio managers who made oodles of money having been heavily overweight the middle part (a.k.a. the belly) of the yield curve, you should start lightening up on these positions. The recommendation is to take a few chips off the table, but not to completely exit the trade as yet. Assuming an unchanged curve, considering a 3-month time horizon, the total return (including roll-down) for the Canada bond maturing in 2014 is the best value on the curve. In the long end, the Canada 8% bonds maturing on June 1, 2023 continue to be the cheapest issue on a relative basis. CORPORATES: Canadian Corporate bond spreads were mixed to wider last week. Long TransCanada Pipeline bonds were 1 wider at 115, while long Ontario bonds were also 1 wider at 48. A starter short in TRAPs was recommended at 102 in February 2004. Shorter maturity, quality corporates should be favoured over lower rated issues as I believe corporate spreads will continue to be under pressure. Any credit that is connected with the consumer and discretionary spending should be avoided. We advised to sell 10 year Canadian Bank sub-debt at a spread of 58 bps over the 10 year Canada bond a few weeks ago. This spread closed at 57 basis points on Friday - in 1 basis point on the week. Canadian credit spreads are not only expensive relative to historical averages, but also relative to international spreads. BOTTOM LINE: The bond market has recovered somewhat after holding the key 4.5% level on the 10 year Treasury Note. The bounce has been less than spectacular. The curve is expected to retain its flattening bias. A trading position was initiated to sell 10 year Canada Bonds to buy 10 year US Treasury Notes. An overweight position in the belly of the curve is still recommended for Canadian accounts, but to a less extent than over the past 2 years. Ongoing underweight exposure for the corporate sector is advised. Levente Mady, Institutional Advisors This analysis is for academic purposes only and must not be construed as investment or trading advice.
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Duncan	27-Oct-05, 01:02 PM (GMT)
9. "the charge that homeowners are using their home equity like ATM machines is literally true"
October 28, 2005 What's Neutral Got To Do With It? by Ron Ellison Tina Turner a few years ago had a hit song "What's Love Got To Do With it?" That same question given a few word changes could easily be asked today of the financial scene. "What's Neutral Got To Do With It?" For a longtime the Federal Reserve has pushed the idea a neutral interest rate demeanor symbolizes the Holy Grail of monetary policy. Trouble is, like the original Holy Grail there have been numerous reported sighting so far but few confirmations. After 11 interest rates hikes and apparently more still to come, a typhoon in the energy sector and a couple of havoc-wreaking hurricanes and signs that inflation is on the rise, many observers appear to believe the U.S economy is a lot like the energizer bunny - just keeps on going. Bulls seem to like the current valuations, arguing their case for relativity, stocks versus bonds, the former being cheap, the latter expensive in their view. They also like to cite earnings growth, you remember them, predicting double-digit jumps in 2006. Of late they've been cackling about the strong dollar and money flows, suggesting that part of the dollar's recent buoyancy might be coming from foreign investors. Given the run-up in many foreign equity markets, the argument goes, these foreign investors now view U.S. stocks as cheap on a relative basis. Bears, on the on the other hand, suggest earnings are bumping into strong headwinds, higher energy prices and interest rates and rising inflation, not to leave out falling investor confidence as measured by the University of Michigan consumer index. Then there is that little bit about consumer spending based on what is rapidly become known as equitization (Put down those tomatoes, we didn't coin the term!), consumers pulling equity from their home to keep the spending bunny energized. No less a financial deity than Sir Alan the Maestro Man recently felt the need to comment. (By the way, the charge that homeowners are using their home equity like ATM machines is literally true. A friend recently acquired an equity line of credit from a big money center bank and one of the first things he received in the mail after his loan was approved was a Pin number and an ATM card.) Greenspan expressed concern about equity withdrawals as a percent of consumers' spending patterns. Though off its high, it remains well above the 15-year average. The implication for GDP is clear should this merry go round suddenly halt. If Greenspan's comments should strike you as somewhat strange, given that he's the guy in the eyes of many who fueled the ATM game by holding rates abnormally low for an abnormally long time, you're not alone. Now that Greenspan's successor, Ben Bernanke, has been named, another question arises. Given the markets apparent positive reaction to the announcement by President Bush, is that reaction owing to Greenspan's departure or to clearing up the uncertainty about who was next in line? Or is it both? And that brings us back to neutrality. What is it, how will we recognize it should it ever appear, when will that be and who saw it last are just a few questions we suppose the great unwashed are not suppose to ask. Well, just last week investors may have received a pretty good idea of what it is when Janet Yellen, president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, suggested it may recline somewhere between 3.5 and 5.5 percent. Trouble is the upper end of that range, 5.5 percent, is well above current consensus and seemed to roil the markets. Perhaps the best investors can do is recall Dante's comment about the hottest places in hell being preserved for those who maintain their neutrality during times of crisis. Ron Ellison Blasingham and Ellison Financial Group Ron Ellison is a principal of Blasingham and Ellison Financial Group, a money management firm in Newport Beach, California, and can be reached at www.Befg1.com. Copyright © 2005 Ron Ellison
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Duncan	27-Oct-05, 01:08 PM (GMT)
10. "n"
N To H Just read your recent post What system do you base your trading on now ? Do you daytrade or position, or is it a combination of the two ? What markets do you trade now ? Sorry for so many questions, but it was interesting what you said that you have to understand the way that you think...... and have the ability to sit on your hands. I am very good at following a rule set, but I have the bad habit of still sticking to them even when the losses get unacceptably high, sometimes in the mistaken belief that the system still works ! Cheers N
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