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Duncan	31-Dec-06, 06:41 PM (GMT)
"Dow T"
Spending China's dollars: CITIC buys Kazakhstan oilfield Submitted by cpowell on 09:07AM ET Sunday, December 31, 2006. Section: Daily Dispatches CITIC Buys Oil Company Stake for $1.91 Billion By Scott McDonald Associated Press Sunday, December 31, 2006 http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061231/ap_on_bi_ge/china_kazakhstan_oil China, which is aggressively seeking overseas energy assets to fuel its booming economy, said Sunday that one of its biggest conglomerates has bought the Kazakhstan oil assets of a Canadian company for $1.91 billion. China's CITIC Group bought the oil assets of Canada's Nations Energy Company Ltd. and granted KazMunaiGas, Kazakhstan's state-owned oil company, an option for a 50 percent interest in Nations Energy, the official Xinhua Agency said. CITI's bid for Nations Energy's Karazhanbas oil field had been opposed by some in the former Soviet Central Asian republic, and the option for KMG may have been one way to win approval from Kazakhstan's regulatory authorities. China's economy has seen double-digit growth in recent years, accompanied by increased demand for energy assets to improve its energy security. Kazakhstan possesses the largest oil deposits in the Caspian Sea region and produces about 1.3 million barrels a day. In November, Kazakhstan's oil minister said he was against the CITIC Group deal. "We must take extreme measures to stop the agreement on the Karazhanbas," Baktykozha Izmukhambetov said in televised remarks, referring to an oil field that is the biggest asset of Canada-based Nations Energy Co. in the Central Asian nation. But according to Xinhua, as part of the approval from Kazakhstan's regulatory authorities, KMG was given the option, exercisable within a year at a price based on CITIC's purchase price for Nations Energy. CITIC Group is one of China's biggest conglomerates. It was set up in Hong Kong in 1979 by former Vice President Rong Yiren as the government's main overseas investment arm. The Karazhanbas field in western Kazakhstan has proven reserves of more than 340 million barrels of oil, and current production exceeds 50,000 barrels per day. CITIC, which has significant infrastructure investments in Central Asia, is planning to build a medium-sized refinery at Karazhanbas, Zhang Jijing, a CITIC Group director, said in October. \ \ \ http://www.safehaven.com/article-6613.htm It looks to me that Trannies tell the truth and is being priced for true economic performance, when compared to the companies who move the "stuff". So, lets answer the questions. Firstly The DJIA and DJTI are talking different stories. That can continue for awhile yet, or stop tomorrow (in other words, watch your back and your exposure to the markets). I will not be ignoring Dow Theory, especially when I can see that at least one of the components is telling the truth. Secondly the DJIA lies, its performance is not reflecting economic truth. Again, this does not mean its about to collapse just because this ecobabbling half-guru has called it out, but I have no intention of becoming a muppet and getting sideswiped with the great unwashed. Its there to see, the DJIA is a liar and its fairly galloping up the garden path. Finally (I heard that sigh of relief!) and most importantly, we may well have stumbled on a big clue. If we accept that Trannies tell the truth, then it and not the DJIA will give us a "heads up" call on what to expect. \ \ \
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Duncan	01-Jan-07, 07:29 AM (GMT)
1. "All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident"
Euro enjoys wide use outside European union Submitted by cpowell on 02:16PM ET Sunday, December 31, 2006. Section: Daily Dispatches By Slobodan Lekic Associated Press Sunday, December 31, 2006 http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061231/ap_on_bi_ge/europe_widespread_euro Slovenia converts to the euro on Monday, officially becoming the 13th member of the eurozone -- and the first among the EU's newest members to qualify to use the currency. But at least half a dozen other European ministates and territories are using the currency as legal tender -- without approval from the European Central Bank. The euro was introduced five years ago to provide economic cohesion among EU nations. But euros also are in circulation in dozens of countries and overseas territories ranging from the North Atlantic to the Pacific. In Europe, Montenegro, Vatican City, and San Marino, and the principalities of Andorra and Monaco have used the euro since its inception. And in the province of Kosovo -- technically still part of Serbia administered by the United Nations -- the euro circulates alongside the Serbian dinar. The European Central Bank has not opposed "unilateral euroization" by microstates that historically have been linked to the French franc, Spanish peseta or German mark as legal tender. "The ECB does not either encourage nor deter third countries from using the euro," President Jean-Claude Trichet recently declared. Joaquin Almunia, the EU's economic and monetary affairs commissioner, has encouraged nations to adopt the euro as a means of achieving economic stability. "The adoption of the euro creates the right conditions for economic prosperity by providing low inflation and low interest rates," he said recently. It is not uncommon for small countries in Africa, Latin America and Asia to use the currency of a major nation -- typically, the dollar. When newly independent East Timor adopted the dollar after seceding from Indonesia in 1999, the U.S. Treasury dispatched planeloads of paper money and tons of small-denomination coins to the impoverished Pacific nation. However, the rise of the euro has made inroads into the dollar's international dominance. Montenegro, for example, switched to the euro after having adopted the German mark in the 1990s. At the time, the tiny nation -- along with Serbia -- was still part of Yugoslavia. But Montenegro opposed the hard-line policies of late Serbian strongman Slobodan Milosevic, and feared he would use his control over the Yugoslav currency to economically destabilize the small state of 600,000 people. With Western help, the mark was introduced in Montenegro to replace the dinar. When the German mark disappeared five years ago, Montenegro adopted the euro at the same time as Germany. The country -- which aspires to EU membership but is not even close to starting entry talks -- now relies only on euros already in circulation, said Nikola Fabris, chief economist at Montenegro's Central Bank. "Montenegro does not have any special deal with the ECB," he said. Kosovo -- where the ethnic Albanian majority is seeking independence for the province -- also is a "passive" member of the eurozone. "The euro allowed Kosovo to have a stable currency and almost 0 percent inflation, and made foreign trade easier," said Mechthild Henneke, a U.N. spokeswoman. Representation on the ECB is restricted to official EU members using the euro: Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain, and now Slovenia. Fourteen West African nations tied to the euro club through the CFA franc, a joint currency set up by France after independence in the 1960s, also are excluded from ECB representation. Some European overseas territories are represented in the ECB decision-making process through their mother countries, including the French departments of Guadeloupe, French Guyana, Martinique and Reunion; Portugal's Madeira and Azores islands, and Spain's Canary Islands. Dozens of other entities, including overseas territories -- such as the French islands of St. Pierre and Miquelon; Mayotte; French Polynesia; New Caledonia; and Wallis and Futuna -- are linked to the euro via peg arrangements or managed floating rates. Slovenia becomes the first of the 10 nations -- most of them ex-communist countries -- that joined the EU in 2004 to use the euro. Cyprus and Malta are slated to adopt the currency in 2008. \ \ \ Chrysler goes to China to build small cars for U.S. market Submitted by cpowell on 02:26PM ET Sunday, December 31, 2006. Section: Daily Dispatches Building them in U.S. is too expensive. * * * By Tom Krisher Associated Press Friday, December 29, 2006 http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061230/ap_on_bi_ge/chrysler_chery DaimlerChrysler AG's Chrysler Group and China's Chery Automobile Co. have agreed on a plan for the Chinese manufacturer to build small cars to be sold worldwide. The cars, which already are being designed, would be based on an existing model but will be modified jointly by Chrysler and Chery engineers, Chrysler spokesman Jason Vines said Friday. Chrysler is taking the lead on the design and will ensure that the vehicles meet high quality standards, he said. They will be sold at Chrysler dealerships in the U.S., Europe and elsewhere under a Chrysler Group brand as either a Dodge, Chrysler or Jeep. Chery will build tiny cars known in the industry as "B-cars," but it also may build something larger for Chrysler, Vines added. The deal needs to be approved by Chrysler's supervisory board, which meets next month, and by the Chinese government. The move gives Chrysler a relatively quick entry into a growing segment of the car market where it now has no significant product, and it prepares the company in case gasoline prices escalate again to above $3 per gallon, said David Cole, chairman of the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor. The average retail price of gasoline in the U.S. ended 2006 at around $2.34 a gallon, or 14 cents higher than a year ago. Alan Helfman, general manager of River Oaks Chrysler Jeep in Houston, said the pact will give dealers coverage in all segments of the car market. "I think that's an incredible deal," he said. Chrysler has been seeking a Chinese partner to build small cars, saying it cannot make money by manufacturing them in the United States due to high labor and other costs. "We can't build one here in that segment. You can't make any money on it. That's why we need a partner," Vines said. He said Chrysler would unveil a prototype "fairly soon," although no date has been set. Production will not start until sometime after 2007, Vines said. Chrysler would not say how many cars Chery would build or how much they would cost. It also would not reveal the financial terms of the agreement. The letter of intent was signed about two weeks ago, Vines said. Chery had plans to begin exporting vehicles to the U.S. as early as next year in a joint venture with U.S. entrepreneur Malcolm Bricklin's Visionary Vehicles, but the deal fell apart in November. "Both sides agreed a joint venture was not a good idea," said Visionary Vehicles spokeswoman Wendi Friedman Tush, adding that Chery wanted to modify existing cars and Bricklin wanted totally new products. Visionary Vehicles is now pursuing other Chinese manufacturers and will announce an agreement soon, she said. The deal with Chery will help Chrysler in the U.S., but it also gives the company small vehicles to sell in growing global markets such as India and China, Cole said. To be successful, automakers have to be ready with cars and trucks for different economic and fuel price situations, Cole said. "If you don't have that entry-level small car and we see $3.50 or $4 per gallon, that could be a huge problem of really not having a product in a segment that would be very hot with high fuel prices," Cole said. Energy analysts predict the $3 level could be within reach in some parts of the country next summer, but that prices in 2007 should mainly be lower than in 2006, when they averaged $2.38 a gallon nationwide. The agreement also helps Chery by giving it access to design, engineering and manufacturing skills that it doesn't currently have, Cole said. The Chery-produced cars likely would be sold for $8,000 to $10,000, and would have to be high quality to compete with Chevrolet, Honda, Nissan, Toyota and other automakers that already are selling B-cars, Cole said. Chrysler likely would give Chery more credibility than it would have had selling the cars on its own in the U.S., he said. Cole said the Chrysler-Chery deal likely won't be the largest one between a U.S. automotive company and a Chinese manufacturer. General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co. already have significant manufacturing deals with Chinese companies that could be larger, he said. GM spokesman Tom Wilkinson said the Chery cars certainly would compete against Chevrolet's Aveo small car, which is built by GM Daewoo in South Korea. But he questioned whether the Cherys would be able to carve out a niche in a competitive market. "The car would have to be good enough to earn its way into the segment," Wilkinson said. The United Auto Workers union, which has been critical of companies that move manufacturing jobs overseas, would not comment on the Chrysler-Chery deal. Last year, GM settled several legal disputes with Chery over allegations that it had stolen GM's design of the Spark minicar, which looks similar to the Chery QQ. GM had sued to prevent Chery from selling the car in various markets, including Asia and Eastern Europe. Terms of the settlement weren't fully disclosed, but Chery agreed not to market its vehicles under the Chery name in the United States. GM and Chery also agreed not to take further legal action against each other. \ \ \ Prof. David Ray Griffin BBC1 - 10 September 2006 interview about 9/11: http://wakeupfromyourslumber.blogspot.com/2006/09/911-truth-like-it- or-not.html http://www.prisonplanet.com/articles/September2006/130906Griffin.htm http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=9181676883393469552 http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=3538037502590699697 "On September 10, five years after the attacks, the BBC finally interviewed David Ray Griffin and actually gave him a fair shot at presenting his case - and boy did he ever. He was incredible. Mild-mannered and down to earth, he spoke with both ease and conviction about the impossibility of the official version, contrasting it with the probability - indeed certainty - that the attacks of September 11th were orchestrated by someone in the government and the ensuing collapse of the buildings a controlled demolition." "All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self- evident." --Arthur Schopenhauer, German philosopher (1788 - 1860) \ \ \
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Duncan	01-Jan-07, 07:58 AM (GMT)
2. "Major trends very seldom end without signs of serious distribution"
http://www.safehaven.com/article-6615.htm Summary: Slowly waning strength is the message that is being sent by the stock market. With GE making a new bull market high recently, there is very little indication of long-term weakness on the horizon, but intermediate cycles are beginning to slow down the advance and should soon reverse it, bringing about the first important correction since the June/July lows. \ \ \
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Duncan	01-Jan-07, 10:11 AM (GMT)
3. "on the dark side of midnight, the elite and there cronies, prepare for the short game"
_______________________________________ Power and Interest News Report (PINR) http://www.pinr.com content@pinr.com +1 (312) 242-1874 ------------------------------ 01 January 2007 Below are a number of recent references to PINR in the media: "U.S. 'must win' Iraq war, ally says" http://washingtontimes.com/world/20061218-094250-8557r.htm "Turkmenistan: Energy Analyst Discusses Impact Of Niyazov's Death" http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2006/12/37535b5a-b825-49b1-8f17-863414835e50.html "Somali PM's hometown victory only first step" http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L31883206.htm "Global Energy Woes Spark Russian Resurgence" http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2006/12/47d29916-5c69-4db0-8f6c-96199a53d218.html ------------------------------ \ \ \ US 'licence to snoop' on British air travellers By David Millward, Transport Correspondent Last Updated: 1:35am GMT 01/01/2007 Air passengers face having credit card transactions and email messages inspected by the American authorities Britons flying to America could have their credit card and email accounts inspected by the United States authorities following a deal struck by Brussels and Washington. By using a credit card to book a flight, passengers face having other transactions on the card inspected by the American authorities. Providing an email address to an airline could also lead to scrutiny of other messages sent or received on that account. The extent of the demands were disclosed in "undertakings" given by the US Department of Homeland Security to the European Union and published by the Department for Transport after a Freedom of Information request. About four million Britons travel to America each year and the released document shows that the US has demanded access to far more data than previously realised. advertisement Not only will such material be available when combating terrorism but the Americans have asserted the right to the same information when dealing with other serious crimes. Shami Chakrabarti, the director of the human rights group Liberty, expressed horror at the extent of the information made available. "It is a complete handover of the rights of people travelling to the United States," she said. As the Americans tightened security after the September 11 attacks, they demanded that airlines provide comprehensive information about passengers before allowing them to land. But this triggered a dispute that came to a head last year in a Catch 22 situation. On one hand they were told they must provide the information, on the other they were threatened with heavy fines by EU governments for breaching European data protection legislation. In October, Brussels agreed to sweep away the "bureaucratic hurdles" preventing airlines handing over this material after European carriers were threatened with exclusion from the US. The newly-released document sets out the rules underpinning that deal. As a result the Americans are entitled to 34 separate pieces of Passenger Name Record (PNR) data — all of which must be provided by airlines from their computers. Much of it is routine but some elements will prove more contentious, such as a passenger's email address, whether they have a previous history of not turning up for flights and any religious dietary requirements. While insisting that "additional information" would only be sought from lawful channels, the US made clear that it would use PNR data as a trigger for further inquiries. Anyone seeking such material would normally have to apply for a court order or subpoena, although this would depend on what information was wanted. Doubts were raised last night about the effectiveness of the safeguards. "There is no guarantee that a bank or internet provider would tell an individual that material about them was being subpoenaed," an American lawyer said. "Then there are problems, such as where the case would take place and whether an individual has time to hire a lawyer, even if they wanted to challenge it." Initially, such material could be inspected for seven days but a reduced number of US officials could view it for three and a half years. Should any record be inspected during this period, the file could remain open for eight years. Material compiled by the border authorities can be shared with domestic agencies. It can also be on a "case by case" basis with foreign governments. Washington promised to "encourage" US airlines to make similar information available to EU governments — rather than compel them to do so. "It is pretty horrendous, particularly when you couple it with our one-sided extradition arrangements with the US," said Miss Chakrabarti. "It is making the act of buying a ticket a gateway to a host of personal email and financial information. While there are safeguards, it appears you would have to go to a US court to assert your rights." Chris Grayling, the shadow transport secretary, said: "Our government and the EU have handed over very substantial powers to gain access to private information belonging to British citizens." A Department for Transport spokesman said: "Every airline is obliged to conform with these rules if they wish to continue flying As part of the terms of carriage, it is made clear to passengers what these requirements are. The US government has given undertakings on how this data will be used and who will see it." \ \ \ Analysts predict a happy new year for stock markets around the world d the dark secret, is the bear that is due obviously, those with an interest in emptying the warehouse of stock, have an interest in keeping the majority of people in the dark, as to, the real deal, for as long as possible the real deal, is of course the next wave; deep south in order for the elite to make a pile, the crowd have to be hook-winked, for as long as possible those analysts, have a hidden agenda; and its this; to con the crowd into the long game meanwhile on the dark side of midnight, the elite and there cronies, prepare for the short game \ \ \
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Duncan	01-Jan-07, 10:46 AM (GMT)
4. "the public must lose in order to pay the elite"
Silver – Ready to Roll By: Richard J. Greene -- Posted 31 December, 2006 | Digg This Article This year silver rose over 40% yet is only starting to draw attention from the investment crowd. A lot of effort is being made to keep the wheels from falling off the increasingly sickly world fiat currencies. These efforts include inconceivably inaccurate government statistics as well as frequent smack-downs in gold and silver, the long-term proven superior forms of money. Recent action suggests the marketplace is learning quite well how to deal with these smack-downs……wait for them patiently and then buy as much physical gold and silver as possible. The gold and silver ETF’s have added tremendous amounts of gold and silver while the price got clobbered recently. In November alone the gold ETF added 52 tons of gold and the current total held now exceeds 452 tons. The silver ETF has had an even more stunning accumulation. While silver fell almost $2 an ounce silver tonnage increased almost 10% to well over 3700 tons and on December 21st alone, almost 280 tons were added which was more in one day than in the four prior full-month additions. When we look at these recent purchases we are astounded by the implications and the dramatic potential for the upside in the silver price if this kind of investment demand were to continue. For the full year of 2005 silver demand was estimated at over 900 million ounces by a leading industry source while production was only a little over 640 million ounces. One thing we have noticed over the past several decades is the steady growth in the demand for silver despite the discontinuation of using silver in coinage around the mid-1960’s. More recently, photography demand has taken a hit as the move to digital cameras accelerated. A multitude of alternative uses for silver has helped to stem declines in these two huge areas. The anti-bacterial qualities of silver are being rediscovered in both biomedical uses and consumer products. Many have long forgotten one of the key reasons silver was used for eating utensils, (still generally referred to as silverware even if it’s plastic), was its anti-bacterial effects on food from simply touching it. Tupperware has just started using silver to line containers resulting in killing bacteria and extending shelf life of leftovers. Clothing manufacturers have starting using silver in specialty applications to control odor, heat, and cold. Silver is the best conductor of heat and of electricity even surpassing gold and copper. It is also the most reflective which is why it is used in photography and in mirrors. In fact, there have been more recent patents issued involving silver uses than all other metals combined. With so many new growth areas perhaps now you can see why there is little room for investment demand, particularly now that stockpiles which once totaled a 60-year backlog are essentially gone. With this advantage of so many growth areas for silver compared with gold which is largely jewelry and investment demand, one can easily see why we expect the gold price to silver price ratio to continue to gravitate to the long-term average of 16 to 1 from the current 49 to 1. One of the interesting facts about silver production is that over 70% is produced as a byproduct of mainly copper, zinc, lead, or gold. This provides an interesting opportunity for pure producers or producers that get the bulk of their production from silver. As silver moves up in price capital should flow to those producers with heavier concentrations in silver. This should allow those producers to bring on enough production to keep the price from getting too high which would otherwise kill off some demand thereby extending the cycle. In 2005, Peru leapt ahead of Mexico as the leading producer of silver. Mexico’s superior political safety will help money to flow to that area which could well help them regain the lead. Looking at the long-term chart of silver spanning hundreds of years, if you update the chart to the present you can see the dramatic move that silver has made off the bottom. In light of the fundamentals mentioned above it is highly likely that silver is in the very early stages of being recognized as an ever-enhancing and value-holding asset just as fiat money is in the early recognition phase of being totally discredited…….AGAIN! www.goldinfo.net/silver600.html Richard J. Greene December 30, 2006 Clearwater, Florida -- Posted 31 December, 2006 \ \ \ http://www.dailyspeculations.com/ \ \ \
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Duncan	01-Jan-07, 12:05 PM (GMT)
5. "only one reason to buy: You think its going to go higher"
If you don't remember the 1960s, this year may help you The world economy looks like continuing a boom that equals the postwar heyday Ashley Seager Monday January 1, 2007 The Guardian The world economy, including Britain's, looks set for another year of robust growth. There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic that the impressive performance of the past few years, since the world emerged from the mess of the dotcom bust, will continue uninterrupted this year and possibly for the rest of the decade. Having grown by an average of more than 3% a year so far this decade, the noughties look set to be the world economy's best decade on record, eclipsing even the golden years of the 1950s and 1960s. Article continues There are risks of course. Doomsayers continue to warn of a slump in the dollar, a renewed surge in the oil price or a collapse in the US housing market that could throw the world off course. They are right that the risks exist, but the world economy has proved its resilience admirably in recent years. Who would have thought, for example, that the tripling of oil prices in the past three years would fail to tip the world into a recession combined with soaring inflation? In those three years the world economy has grown by almost 5% annually - the fastest for more than 30 years. World stock markets are booming as investors show their confidence. Motoring The main reason for optimism is that growth has broadened out from relying on the good old American consumer who, boosted by the ultra-cheap money and rising house prices of recent years, kept the world economy motoring while regions such as the eurozone and Japan were sluggish. Now both of those regions, along with China and India and other emerging economies, are performing well. They should be able to withstand the slight slowdown that many analysts are expecting in the United States. In short, the world is rebalancing. The US economy, still by far the largest in the world, looks certain to slow this year. Its housing market slipped last year and the house price boom of recent years is a distant memory. Housebuilding has slumped, prices are down everywhere and a lot of newly built homes are standing empty. But other parts of the US economy appear to have taken up the slack. Exports are healthy, thanks to a strong world economy and a weaker dollar; business investment and non-residential construction are also doing well. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development expects US growth to slow to 2.4% this year, from 3.3% in 2006. It expects a sluggish first half of the year before a rebound later in the year. It does not predict a US recession, nor does the International Monetary Fund, which is forecasting growth of close to 3% for the US this year. Frothy Indeed, the Federal Reserve, which raised interest rates from their low point of 1% in 2004 to 5.25% last August in an attempt to rein in the frothy housing market and keep inflation in check, still thinks high inflation is more of a danger than slow growth. Last week, news from the US showed sales of homes had begun to rise again and stocks of unsold homes had started falling. If the housing market recovers, the US economy could even return to surprisingly robust growth in 2007. The Fed looks likely to keep interest rates on hold for the foreseeable future, but it has room to cut them if the economy looks weak. The eurozone, long the sick man of the world economy, turned in a surprisingly respectable performance in 2006, growing by around 2.6%, well above 2005's rate of 1.4%. The OECD and IMF expect growth to be closer to 2% this year and next, partly because the European Central Bank has made it clear it intends to continue raising interest rates from their current 3.5%. That growth rate may sound paltry, but it is decent by the standards of recent years. Germany has been the particular star in Europe, as its companies have responded to the strong world economy by raising exports, although questions remain about the strength of domestic demand. Wage growth has been sluggish as firms have used the threat of moving production abroad to keep pay rises to a minimum. A rise in VAT today from 16% to 19% is not going to help consumer spending, but is unlikely to derail the economy. Spain and Italy look a little less secure, with the former experiencing a property market bubble which looks vulnerable to a burst while the latter is suffering from a lack of competitiveness and high inflation. There are also some question marks over the strength of the French economy. Few such doubts exist over China. Its economy is likely to grow by 10% again this year, as it has done for many years, taking it to number four in the world economy ranking. It is now big enough to make its growth matter for the whole world. Taken together, emerging markets including India, Russia and Brazil now account for 70% of world growth. They accounted for 50% a decade ago. The world is much less dependent on the US than it used to be. Japan, still the world's second largest economy, seems to be recovering steadily from its decade-long slump although there are still concerns about whether its deflation problem has been solved in spite of rock-bottom interest rates of just 0.25%. Which brings us to Britain, the world's fifth largest economy. Here, too, things look solid. Growth was better than expected last year, at around 2.6%, and the economy looks to have powered into the new year in rude health. The Bank of England, which raised interest rates twice last year to their current 5%, may even be tempted to nudge them up again, although I am not convinced it will have to. The year here is likely to be dominated by the rise and rise of house prices, particularly in London and the south-east. At some point the great noughties housing boom will have to end. Another interest rate rise or two might just be enough to do that, given how indebted the average Briton has become. That could turn out to be the nasty surprise of this year. There will also be the small matter of a change of the guard at the Treasury, as Gordon Brown looks set to move to Number 10 in the first half of the year. His March budget is likely to be his swansong after a decade as chancellor. All in all, it is a pretty rosy scenario for the world and one which will allow company profits to keep increasing. The main cloud on the horizon is not the US current account deficit or a potential run on the dollar (it is likely to continue to slide, but not crash) but rather the emerging crisis surrounding Iran. If the country's bellicose leadership continues to defy the United Nations with its nuclear programme and responds to sanctions by carrying out its threat to shut the Straits of Hormuz and prevent a fifth of the world's oil getting to market, the price of crude could easily shoot through $100 a barrel and finally rattle the confidence of world stock markets. ashley.seager@guardian.co.uk \ \ \ Insider Selling in Corporate Management | Investing | Markets | Psychology/Sentiment There are thousands of reasons to sell, but only one reason to buy: You think a stock is going to go higher. The people who are thought of as having the greatest insight into that upside potential -- corporate insiders -- are always doing both, buying and selling. So it can be instructive to see the ratio of what their Buys/Sells are like. Oftentimes, that can provide a small measure of insight into sentiment and potentially what management thinks the next 6-12 months miught hold. They aren't infallible, but they do have access to better info than most investors do. Consider the following observation, from Alan Newman (via Barron's): "As Alan Newman notes in his always rewarding CrossCurrents commentary, in November, those worthies, as totted up by Thomson Financial, dumped an astounding $16 billion worth of their stock, or nearly 35 times as much as they bought. By comparison, in the 11 months beginning December '05 and ending October '06, the ratio of sellers to buyers among insiders averaged 10.7-to-1. The early returns for December are even worse: in that month's first two weeks insiders collectively sold 55 shares for every one they bought. As Alan comments, they were so bound and determined to take money off the table that they couldn't even wait the few weeks until January to avoid the serious tax bite for what probably was a pretty lush year for them in '06. "What," he asks, "does that tell you?" We're terrific at answering rhetorical questions, and the answer to that one is "plenty." So who's buying those billions of dollars worth of shares the insiders are selling? Alan speculates that the latest Wall Street wonder, exchange-traded funds -- or in the lexicon of the Street, ETFs (see Exchange-Traded Funds) -- has been sucking up a lot of that stock gushing out of insider portfolios. By his reckoning, through mid-December, last year's net issuance of ETF shares weighed in at a massive $54 billion, extending a smashing seven-year growth that has averaged an awesome 41% annually and has lifted the total value of such shares to close to $400 billion. It's critical to remember, Alan points out, that for an exchange-traded fund to issue shares it must first buy the underlying assets, primarily stocks. That demand all by itself, he reckons, was enough to keep the market rally of the past few months alive and well. Not the least interesting thing about ETFs and their powerful impact on market prices is that they don't trade on the basis of individual corporate prospects. Alan posits that more than half the price of many stocks is now dependent on "index or sector sponsorship, the obvious result of a market that has been increasingly sectored to death and indexed beyond any efficiency" imagined by academics. For ETFs, in other words, valuations don't matter. Which is the dangerous message he gets from the fact that the top 10 constituents of the most popular ETF, the Nasdaq 100 Trust (QQQQ), which trades a formidable $4.7 billion a day, sport a P/E north of 33 and are selling at over six times sales. Unless we're willing to say history and, for that matter, logic are bunk, it's plain as the nose on your face that valuations do matter. That's what investors should have learned from their sorry experience in 2000, reflects Alan, and what they very well may learn again the hard way when this market turns tail." That's fascinating stuff. Its hardly a precise timing mechanism, but it does point up an interesting factor: Insiders have been taking advantage of the stock run up from July to year's end to sell into the strength. I would be curious to see how this compares to other significant market periods. Is it determinative? Does it provide an early warning, or is it merely an interesting data point? If any hung over revelers have an idea, please let us know . . . Source: Sore Winners ALAN ABELSON UP AND DOWN WALL STREET MONDAY, JANUARY 1, 2007 http://online.barrons.com/article/SB116744038394263068.html Monday, January 01, 2007 | 06:43 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) add to de.li.cious | digg this! | add to technorati | email this post TrackBack TrackBack URL for this entry: http://www.typepad.com/t/trackback/7331319 Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Insider Selling: Comments YES YES YES Posted by: Duncan Robertson | Jan 1, 2007 7:01:53 AM \ \ \
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Duncan	01-Jan-07, 06:34 PM (GMT)
6. "TRADE THE LINE OF LEAST RESISTANCE"
m Analysts predict their OPINIONS for 2007 You are predicting YOUR OPINIONS for 2007 I see this a waste of time Myself I have no OPINIONS for 2007 Myself I just want to trade the LINE OF LEAST RESISTANCE in 2007 From: duncan robertson Analysts predict a happy new year for stock markets around the world d the dark secret, is the bear that is due obviously those with an interest in emptying the warehouse, have an interest in keeping the majority of people in the dark, as to the real deal, for as long as possible the real deal, is of course the next wave; deep south in order for the elite to make a pile, the crowd have to be hook-winked, for as long as possible those analysts, have a hidden agenda; and its this; to con the crowd into the long game meanwhile on the dark side of midnight, the elite and there cronies, prepare for the short game \ \ \ m HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE FOR YOU TO STOP FORCING YOUR OPINIONS ON THE MARKET YOU HAVE NOT LEARNED IN YEARS OF TRADING MARKETS YOU WILL NEVER MAKE IT THIS WAY ITS SIMPLE YOU JUST TRADE THE LINE OF LEAST RESISTANCE HOW CAN YOU NOT SEE THIS IM STARTING TO GET FED UP WITH YOUR OPINIONS WILL YOUR OPINIONS AFFECT THE MARKET, OF COURSE IT WONT HOW CAN AN INTELLIGENT PERSON LIKE YOU NOT SEE THIS IT BEATS ME From: duncan robertson Analysts predict a happy new year for stock markets around the world d the dark secret, is the bear that is due obviously those with an interest in emptying the warehouse, have an interest in keeping the majority of people in the dark, as to the real deal, for as long as possible the real deal, is of course the next wave; deep south in order for the elite to make a pile, the crowd have to be hook-winked, for as long as possible those analysts, have a hidden agenda; and its this; to con the crowd into the long game meanwhile on the dark side of midnight, the elite and there cronies, prepare for the short game \ \ \ 10-gram gold contracts offered in India; gold deliveries rising fast Submitted by cpowell on 09:05AM ET Monday, January 1, 2007. Section: Daily Dispatches From The Economic Times, New Delhi Monday, January 1, 2007 http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Markets/Commodities/NCDEX_to_launch_... MUMBAI -- The National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange Ltd (NCDEX) will launch 10 grams immediate delivery gold contracts, to be traded on its electronic spot exchanges, in order to increase its bullion clients. "It will be an immediate delivery contract in form of 10 grams gold coins for our spot exchanges and we plan to positively launch it before the first quarter of next year," NCDEX Head Business Development Shrikant Subbarayan told media. The NCDEX electronic spot exchanges are expected to be rolled out from the middle of January starting from Rajasthan and West Bengal. The spot exchange-traded 10 grams gold coin contracts would be available for a cheaper price with assured quality and have a buyback option. "If you buy a 10-gram gold coin from a jeweller or a bank it is usually 10 to 15 percent high in price while purity is a big question. One also faces a problem in buyback," he said. Through these contracts NCDEX is targeting to increase its bullion trade clients to five lakh to one million from current level of 25,000 to 30,000, he said. The exchange had earlier started its futures mini gold 100 grams contracts and registered a delivery of 89 kg of gold during the first month of expiry of these contracts in December. "The brokerage firms were able to tap the potential of small net worth investors who want to have gold as a part of its investment portfolio," he said. In its total bullion trade, NCDEX has witnessed an upswing on the deliveries. In October a total of 743 kg of gold was delivered at the exchange. November saw a delivery of 940 kg of gold while December saw a record delivery of 1,104 kg. There was an increased participation from both the investor class and trading community in bullion either to take delivery or to make good returns. "In the December month itself there was a return of 12 percent annualised, which is not possible through fixed deposit or call money market for a month," Subbarayan said. If you buy gold in December and sell it in January through NCDEX, for a month you get 12 percent risk free returns whereas in other markets one cannot get a return of more than 5 percent, he said. \ \ \ Report predicts China's currency will gain 5% on dollar in 2007 Submitted by cpowell on 09:17AM ET Monday, January 1, 2007. Section: Daily Dispatches From Xinhua News Agency, Beijing Monday, January 1, 2007 http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-01/01/content_5556950.htm BEIJING -- The exchange rate of the renminbi, the Chinese currency, is expected to appreciate by some 5 percent to one U.S. dollar for 7.44 yuan, according to a Xinhua Economic Analysis Report released Monday. The report projected that the pace of RMB appreciation would be faster in the first half of 2007 than in the second half. Xinhua Economic Analysis Reports are regular products by a team of more than 80 economic analysts under Xinhua Economic Information Department. The latest issue of the reports reviewed the country's ten key indices in the economic and financial sectors and made projections on possible changes in the coming year. In 2006, the value of the RMB rose 3.28 percent against the dollar, with an accelerating trend from 0.66 percent in the first quarter to 1.15 percent in the fourth. The central parity price closed at one U.S. dollar for 7.8141 yuan, the lowest of the year. The report held that the short-term RMB exchange rate will be influenced by the fluctuation between the dollar and other currencies, but in the long run, it depends on the progress of China's exchange rate reforms. Stable appreciation in small steps is generally expected. Earlier in December, China's State Information Center predicted a 3 to 4 percent appreciation of the yuan in 2007, while the Bank of America and Deutsche Bank expected a rise of 4 to 6 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively. China's foreign exchange policy is in line with the pace of China's economic development and the daily floating band is enough to allow sufficient appreciation of the RMB, according to Chinese economist Fan Gang. However, some economists argue that the appreciation of the RMB is a double-edged sword, as it will make Chinese exports more expensive and therefore reduce export volume. Some export-driven small and medium companies may not be able to survive and have to lay off employees. "If China were coerced into really large appreciations of the RMB, it could face the same deflationary fate as Japan in the 1980s and 1990s -- and all this without reducing its trade surplus," said Ronald McKinnon in an article published Wednesday by The Wall Street Journal. Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People's Bank of China, said that there was no timetable for a further widening of the daily floating band between the RMB and the U.S. dollar. China raised the value of yuan by 2 percent to 8.11 per U.S. dollar and started linking it to a basket of currencies on July 21 of 2005, and allowed it to move 0.3 percent above or below the parity rate against the U.S. dollar. The report also projected that the country's gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 9.5 percent, lower than the estimated 10.5 percent for 2006. Major reasons for the slowed pace include the decline of global economic growth and the Chinese government's tighter macro-economic control aimed to curb overheated sectors such as investment and housing. It forecasts that fixed asset investment will increase by 25 percent, compared with the estimated 26.6 percent growth for 2006. However, the report cautioned that investment can easily rebound for reasons of liquidity surplus, fast growing corporate profits and local governments' investment impulse. The growth of fixed asset investment and credit both slowed down in 2006 as a result of hikes in the benchmark lending interest rate, which was increased from 5.85 to 6.12 percent. It will be less necessary for the central bank to further raise interest rates in 2007, as too fast declines of investment growth will be no good to an anticipated slack in economic growth, but the possibilities of interest rate drops are even smaller, says the report. The Chinese government has been trying to curb runaway investment to let consumption contribute more to economic growth, with measures to stimulate domestic demand such as improving the social security system, raising minimum wages and protecting the interests of migrant laborers. Domestic consumption will grow faster in 2007, with retail sales of consumer goods to rise 15 percent year on year, the report predicts. The number is estimated to be 13.7 percent for 2006, 0.9 percentage points up from 2005. \ \ \ http://www.safehaven.com/article-6618.htm \ \ \ January 01, 2007 The World's Reserve Currency by Ron Paul The financial press reported last week that the euro, the new currency created only five years ago and used by most European nations, has supplanted the U.S. dollar as the most widely used form of cash internationally. There are now more Euros in circulation worldwide than dollars. This alone is not necessarily troubling, as the dollar remains the world's most important reserve currency. About 65% of foreign central bank exchange reserves are still held in dollars, versus only about 25% in euros. And the European Central Bank faces the same inflationary pressures that our own Federal Reserve Bank Governors face, including a growing entitlement burden that threatens economic ruin as both societies age. European politicians want to spend money just as badly as American politicians, and undoubtedly will clamor to inflate-- and thus devalue-- the euro to fund their creaky social welfare systems. Still, the rise of the Euro internationally is another sign that the U.S. dollar is not what it used to be. There is increasing pressure on nations to buy and sell oil in euros, and anecdotal evidence suggests that drug dealers and money launderers now prefer euros to dollars. Historically, the underground cash economy has always sought the most stable and valuable paper currency to conduct business. More importantly, our greatest benefactors for the last twenty years-- Asian central banks-- have lost their appetite for holding U.S. dollars. China, Japan, and Asia in general have been happy to hold U.S. debt instruments in recent decades, but they will not prop up our spending habits forever. Foreign central banks understand that American leaders do not have the discipline to maintain a stable currency. When the rest of the world finally abandons the dollar as the global reserve currency, both Congress and American consumers will find borrowing money a more expensive proposition. Remember, America can maintain a large trade deficit only if foreign banks continue to hold large numbers of dollars as their reserve currency. Our entire consumption economy is based on the willingness of foreigners to hold U.S. debt. We face a reordering of the entire world economy if the federal government cannot print, borrow, and spend money at a rate that satisfies its endless appetite for deficit spending. At some point Americans must realize that Congress, and the Federal Reserve system that permits the creation of new money by fiat, are the real culprits in the erosion of your personal savings and buying power. Congress relentlessly spends more than the Treasury collects in taxes each year, which means the U.S. government must either borrow or print money to operate-- both of which cause the value of the dollar to drop. When we borrow a billion dollars every day simply to run the government, and when the Federal Reserve increases the money supply by trillions of dollars in just 15 years, we hardly can expect our dollars to increase in value. Talk Back Dr. Ron Paul Project Freedom Congressman Ron Paul of Texas enjoys a national reputation as the premier advocate for liberty in politics today. Dr. Paul is the leading spokesman in Washington for limited constitutional government, low taxes, free markets, and a return to sound monetary policies based on commodity-backed currency. He is known among both his colleagues in Congress and his constituents for his consistent voting record in the House of Representatives: Dr. Paul never votes for legislation unless the proposed measure is expressly authorized by the Constitution. In the words of former Treasury Secretary William Simon, Dr. Paul is the "one exception to the Gang of 535" on Capitol Hill. Copyright © 2006-2007 Dr. Ron Paul \ \ \ http://www.safehaven.com/article-6616.htm \ \ \
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Duncan	02-Jan-07, 06:36 AM (GMT)
7. "in the Dow Jones, commercials were buyers and larger-traders were sellers. This is a classical bearish COT setup"
Banks and funds pay top dollar to secure commodity talent Submitted by cpowell on 12:04PM ET Monday, January 1, 2007. Section: Daily Dispatches By Kevin Morrison Financial Times, London Monday January 1, 2007 http://biz.yahoo.com/ft/070101/fto010120071424249461.html?.v=1 LONDON -- London Commodity traders, once the overlooked Cinderellas of the financial trading world, are being offered multi-million-dollar lock-in payments reminiscent of the early dotcom boom, when banks were also desperate to expand into new areas by offering guaranteed payments to key staff. The value of such traders -- and energy traders in particular -- has risen sharply over the past 18 months, amid the continuing commodity price boom that has prompted hedge funds and top-tier banks to expand their commodity trading businesses. Such new entrants are competing with the established bulge bracket banks in commodities such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Barclays Capital. However, these banks have tied many of their senior traders into lucrative share deals, making it often impossible for them to join the new entrants to the commodities markets. Banks appear willing to pay not only significantly higher base salaries to commodities traders, but also guaranteed bonuses to attract and retain such staff. Guaranteed payments represent a salary and bonus package that will be paid to a trader regardless of the subsequent trading performance at the bank. Among the biggest such recent guaranteed payments was one made by Deutsche Bank, who hired David Silbert as their head of commodities from Merrill Lynch, where he had headed up the bank's European commodity business. People familiar with the situation said Mr Silbert was on a three-year guaranteed payment worth £10m-£15m. Deutsche Bank would confirm Mr Silbert's appointment but would not comment on his remuneration package. Such guaranteed payments are fixed costs that could come back to haunt the banks in the event of a downturn, when revenues decline. Equally, however, the fixed nature of such deals will repay the banks for as long as the commodities boom continues. Given such lucrative lock-in payments, aggressive new entrants to the commodities markets are increasingly being driven to look elsewhere to find top traders. In the energy industry, this has meant going directly to the big oil groups such as BP, Royal Dutch Shell, Total, and ChevronTexaco. Industry insiders estimate that at least 30 traders -- including David Ferner, Christophe Balleaux, and Chad South -- have left BP in the past 18 months to go to either banks, private oil traders, or hedge funds. \ \ \ http://www.safehaven.com/article-6620.htm \ \ \ http://www.safehaven.com/article-6619.htm \ \ \ http://www.safehaven.com/article-6621.htm \ \ \ Last updated Weekly Blog - January 01, 7:09pm www.buythebottom.com/blog/ \ \ \ http://www.whatreallyhappened.com/lieofthecentury.html You should be more than angry. You should be in a rage. You should be in a rage no less than that of the families of those young men and women who have been killed and maimed in this war started with a lie.You need to be in a rage and you need to act on that rage because even as I type these words, the same government that lied about Iraq's nuclear weapons is telling the exact same lies about Iran's nuclear capabilities. The writing is on the wall; having gotten away with lying to start the war in Iraq, the US Government will lie to start a war in Iran, and after that another, and after that another, and another and another and another because as long as you remain silent, and as long as you remain inactive, the liars have no reason to stop. As long as you remain inactive, the liars have no reason to stop. None. \ \ \
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Duncan	02-Jan-07, 06:42 AM (GMT)
8. "Mens Rea"
THE LIE OF THE CENTURY The Downing Street Memo is only the beginning of the proof we were all lied to. Michael Rivero EMAIL THIS PAGE TO A FRIEND "All war is based on deception." -- Sun Tzu, The Art of War There is nothing new in a government lying to their people to start a war. Indeed because most people prefer living in peace to bloody and horrific death in war, any government that desires to initiate a war usually lies to their people to create the illusion that support for the war is the only possible choice they can make. President McKinley told the American people that the USS Maine had been sunk in Havana Harbor by a Spanish mine. The American people, outraged by this apparent unprovoked attack, supported the Spanish American War. The Captain of the USS Maine had insisted the ship was sunk by a coal bin explosion, investigations after the war proved that such had indeed been the case. There had been no mine. Hitler used this principle of lying to his own people to initiate an invasion. He told the people of Germany that Poland had attacked first and staged fake attacks against German targets. The Germans, convinced they were being threatened, followed Hitler into Poland and into World War 2. FDR claimed Pearl Harbor was a surprise attack. It wasn't. The United States saw war with Japan as the means to get into war with Germany, which Americans opposed. So Roosevelt needed Japan to appear to strike first. Following an 8-step plan devised by the Office of Naval Intelligence, Roosevelt intentionally provoked Japan into the attack. Contrary to the official story, the fleet did not maintain radio silence, but sent messages intercepted and decoded by US intercept stations. Tricked by the lie of a surprise attack, Americans marched off to war. President Johnson lied about the Gulf of Tonkin to send Americans off to fight in Vietnam. There were no torpedoes in the water in the Gulf. LBJ took advantage of an inexperienced sonar man's report to goad Congress into escalating the Vietnam War. It is inescapable historical reality that leaders of nations will lie to their people to trick them into wars they otherwise would have refused. It is not "conspiracy theory" to suggest that leaders of nations lie to trick their people into wars. It is undeniable fact. This brings us to the present case. Did the government of the United States lie to the American people, more to the point, did President Bush and his Neocon associates lie to Congress, to initiate a war of conquest in Iraq? This question has been given currency by a memo leaked from inside the British Government which clearly indicates a decision to go to war followed by the "fixing" of information around that policy. This is, as they say, a smoking gun. But the fact is that long before this memo surfaced, it had become obvious that the US Government, aided by that of Great Britain, was lying to create the public support for a war in Iraq. First off is Tony Blair's "Dodgy Dossier", a document released by the Prime Minister that made many of the claims used to support the push for war. The dossier soon collapsed when it was revealed that much of it had been plagiarized from a student thesis paper that was 12 years old! The contents of the dossier, however much they seemed to create a good case for invasion, were obsolete and outdated. This use of material that could not possibly be relevant at the time is clear proof of a deliberate attempt to deceive. Then there was the claim about the "Mobile biological weapons laboratories". Proffered in the absence of any real laboratories in the wake of the invasion, photos of these trailers were shown on all the US Mainstream Media, with the claim they while seeming to lack anything suggesting biological processing, these were part of a much larger assembly of multiple trailers that churned out biological weapons of mass destruction. The chief proponent of this hoax was Colin Powell, who presented illustrations such as this one to the United Nations on February 5th, 2003. This claim fell apart when it was revealed that these trailers were nothing more than hydrogen gas generators used to inflate weather balloons. This fact was already known to both the US and UK, as a British company manufactured the units and sold them to Iraq. Click for full sized image Colin Powell's speech to the UN was itself one misstatement after another. Powell claimed that Iraq had purchased special aluminum tubes whose only possible use was in uranium enrichment centrifuges. Both CIA and Powell's own State Department confirmed that the tubes were parts for missiles Saddam was legally allowed to have. Following the invasion, no centrifuges, aluminum or otherwise were found. Click for full sized image Powell also claimed to the United Nations that the photo on the left showed "Decontamination Vehicles". But when United Nations inspectors visited the site after the invasion, they located the vehicles and discovered they were just firefighting equipment. Powell claimed the Iraqis had illegal rockets and launchers hidden in the palm trees of Western Iraq. None were ever found. Powell claimed that the Iraqis had 8,500 liters (2245 gallons) of Anthrax. None was ever found. Powell claimed that Iraq had four tons of VX nerve gas. The UN had already confirmed that it was destroyed. The only VX ever found were samples the US had left as "standards" for testing. When the UN suspected that the US samples had been used to contaminate Iraqi warheads, the US moved quickly to destroy the samples before comparison tests could be carried out. Powell claimed that Iraq was building long-range remote drones specifically designed to carry biological weapons. The only drones found were short-range reconnaissance drones. Powell claimed that Iraq had an aggregate of between 100 and 500 tons of chemical and biological warfare agents. Powell gave no basis for that claim at all, and a DIA report issued the same time directly contradicted the claim. No biological or chemical weapons were found in Iraq following the invasion. Powell claimed that "unnamed sources" confirmed that Saddam had authorized his field commanders to use biological weapons. No such weapons were ever used by the Iraqis to defend against the invasion and, of course, none were ever found in Iraq. Powell claimed that 122mm warheads found by the UN inspectors were chemical weapons. The warheads were empty, and showed no signs of ever having contained chemical weapons. Powell claimed that Iraq had a secret force of illegal long-range Scud missiles. None were ever found. Powell claimed to have an audio tape proving that Saddam was supporting Osama Bin Laden. But independent translation of the tape revealed Osama's wish for Saddam's death. Colin Powell's UN debacle also included spy photos taken from high flying aircraft and spacecraft. On the photos were circles and arrows and labels pointing to various fuzzy white blobs and identifying them as laboratories and storage areas for Saddam's massive weapons of mass destruction program. Nothing in the photos actually suggested what the blobby shapes were and during inspections which followed the invasion, all of them turned out to be rather benign. In at least one case, the satellite Powell claimed had taken one of the pictures had actually been out of operation at the time. And many questioned why Powell was showing black and white photos when the satellites in use at the time over Iraq took color images. Another piece of evidence consists of documents which President Bush referenced as in his 2003 State of the Union Speech. According to Bush, these documents proved that Iraq was buying tons of uranium oxide, called "Yellow Cake" from Niger. Since Israel had bombed Iraq's nuclear power plant years before, it was claimed that the only reason Saddam would have for buying uranium oxide was to build bombs. This hoax fell apart fast when it was pointed out that Iraq has a great deal of uranium ore inside their own borders and no need to import any from Niger or anywhere else. The I.A.E.A. then blew the cover off the fraud by announcing that the documents Bush had used were not only forgeries, but too obvious to believe that anyone in the Bush administration did not know they were forgeries! The forged documents were reported as being "discovered" in Italy by SISMI, the Italian Security Service. Shortly before the "discovery" the head of SISMI had been paid a visit by Michael Ledeen, Manucher Ghorbanifar, and two officials from OSP, one of whom was Larry Franklin, the Israeli spy operating inside the OSP. In July, 2005, the Italian Parliament concluded their own investgation and named four men as suspects in the creation of the forged documents. Michael Ledeen, Dewey Clarridge, Ahmed Chalabi and Francis Brookes. This report has been included in Patrick Fitzgerald's investigation into the outing of Valerie Plame, and Paul McNulty, the prosecutor of the AIPAC spy case. A recently declassified memo proves that the State Department reported the fact that the NIger documents were forgeries to the CIA 11 days before President Bush made the claim about the Niger uranium based on those documents. In the end, the real proof that we were lied to about Iraq's weapons of mass destruction is that no weapons of mass destruction were ever found. That means that every single piece of paper that purported to prove that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction was by default a fraud, a hoax, and a lie. There could be no evidence that supported the claim that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction because Iraq did not have weapons of mass destruction. In a way, the existence of any faked documents about Iraq's WMDs is actually an admission of guilt. If one is taking the time to create fake documents, the implication is that the faker is already aware that there are no genuine documents. What the US Government had, ALL that they had, were copied student papers, forged "Yellow Cake" documents, balloon inflators posing as bioweapons labs, and photos with misleading labels on them. And somewhere along the line, someone decided to put those misleading labels on those photos, to pretend that balloon inflators are portable bioweapons labs, and to pass off stolen student papers as contemporary analysis. And THAT shows an intention to deceive. Lawyers call this "Mens Rea", which means "Guilty Mind". TV lawyer shows call it "Malice aforethought". This means that not only did the Bush Administration lie to the people and to the US Congress, but knew they were doing something illegal at the time that they did it. All the talk about "Intelligence failure" is just another lie. There was no failure. Indeed the Army agents who erroneously claimed that missile tubes were parts for a uranium centrifuge received bonuses, while the Pentagon smeared Hans Blix, and John Bolton orchestrated the firing of Jose Bustani, the director of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, because Bustani was trying to send chemical weapons inspectors to Baghdad. The President of the United States and his Neocon associates lied to the people of the United States to send them off on a war of conquest. Defenders of the government will point to the cases listed at the top of the page as proof that lying to the people is a normal part of the leader's job and we should all get used to it. And because "Everybody does it" that we should not single out the present administration. But this is madness. We do not catch all the murderers, yet when we catch a murderer, we deal with them as harshly as possible, in order to deter more murderers. Right now, we have the criminals at hand. and, while other leaders in history have lied to start wars, for the first time in history, the lie stands exposed while the war started with the lies still rages on, to the death and detriment of our young men and women in uniform. We cannot in good moral conscience ignore this lie, this crime, lest we encourage future leaders to continue to lie to us to send our kids off to pointless wars. Lying to start a war is more than an impeachable offence; it the highest possible crime a government can commit against their own people. Lying to start a war is not only misappropriation of the nation's military and the nation's money under false pretenses, but it is outright murder committed on a massive scale. Lying to start a war is a betrayal of the trust each and every person who serves in the military places in their civilian leadership. By lying to start a war, the Bush administration has told the military fatalities and their families that they have no right to know why they were sent to their deaths. It's none of their business. Our nation is founded on the principle of rule with the consent of the governed. Because We The People do not consent to be lied to, a government that lies rules without the consent of the governed, and ruling without the consent of the governed is slavery. You should be more than angry. You should be in a rage. You should be in a rage no less than that of the families of those young men and women who have been killed and maimed in this war started with a lie.You need to be in a rage and you need to act on that rage because even as I type these words, the same government that lied about Iraq's nuclear weapons is telling the exact same lies about Iran's nuclear capabilities. The writing is on the wall; having gotten away with lying to start the war in Iraq, the US Government will lie to start a war in Iran, and after that another, and after that another, and another and another and another because as long as you remain silent, and as long as you remain inactive, the liars have no reason to stop. As long as you remain inactive, the liars have no reason to stop. None. It is time to fire the liars. "The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing" . --Edmund Burke U.S.C. TITLE 18 > PART I > CHAPTER 47 § 1001. (a) Except as otherwise provided in this section, WHOEVER, in any matter within the jurisdiction of the executive, legislative, or judicial branch of the Government of the United States, knowingly and willfully— (1) falsifies, conceals, or covers up by ANY trick, scheme, or device a material fact; (2) makes any materially false, fictitious, or fraudulent statement or representation; or (3) makes or USES any false writing or document knowing the same to contain any materially false, fictitious, or fraudulent statement or entry; shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than 5 years, or both. (b) Subsection (a) does not apply to a party to a judicial proceeding, or that party's counsel, for statements, representations, writings or documents submitted by such party or counsel to a judge or magistrate in that proceeding. (c) With respect to any matter within the jurisdiction of the legislative branch, subsection (a) shall apply only to— (1) administrative matters, including a claim for payment, a matter related to the procurement of property or services, personnel or employment practices, or support services, or a document required by law, rule, or regulation to be submitted to the Congress or any office or officer within the legislative branch; or (2) any investigation or review, conducted pursuant to the authority of any committee, subcommittee, commission or office of the Congress, consistent with applicable rules of the House or Senate. SO HERE IS WHAT WE ARE GOING TO DO The Bush administration and their friends in the media want this story to go away. More than want it to go away, they are in a panic, and will do everything they can to stop it. They will use every dirty trick, every paid shill, every presstitute that they can. Already there is a report that the Michael Jackson jury is "expected" to reach a verdict just before the Conyers hearings. So, I want YOU to copy this article off, post it everywhere. This article is placed in the public domain. Mail it to your friends. Then send it to your local media and your Congresscritters and have everyone you know do the same. Get on the phones. Flood their offices. The term is "Viral Marketing" where you get the people who need a product to market it for you. Well, this nation NEEDS this "product". It needs to know that this war was started with lies. INTENTIONAL lies. And they need to know there is something they can do about it, and that is to start pounding on the doors of power. Because when a flood of such messages reaches the Congress and the media, what they will hear is that there is no more time. Either they will deal with these lies and the liars, in full, or they will lose all credibility as a government and as media. A government that lies to the people cannot be the legal government of this land. Make sure that they understand that YOU understand that the Constitution does not allow the government to lie to the people. Calling themselves the government does not make it so if they act unconstitutionally and illegally. The Constitution is the original "Contract with America" and a government that lies stands in clear breach of that contract. MORE MEDIA CONTACTS MORE CONGRESSIONAL CONTACTS But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object, evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security. -- "The Declaration of Independence"
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Duncan	02-Jan-07, 06:49 AM (GMT)
9. "overbot shelter"
http://www.stockmarket-ta.com/ \ \ \ Overvalued house prices threaten crash By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor Last Updated: 2:25am GMT 02/01/2007 Comment on this story Read comments House prices are at their most overvalued for 15 years, new figures showed yesterday, as hard-pressed home-owners struggle to pay their mortgages. And with the gloomy prospect of a record tax burden and unprecedented rises in household bills comes a warning that interest rates could rise by far more than expected. Morgan Stanley and PriceWaterhouseCoopers warn there is a high chance of a severe fall in house prices in the coming years A study commissioned by The Daily Telegraph shows that house prices are moving well beyond the reach of many families as the rapid growth in property values outpaces increases in incomes. The Daily Telegraph/Lombard Street Research Housing Affordability Index shows that they are more overvalued than at any time since 1991 — when prices were plunging after the last major slide. Affordability has fallen by three per cent in the past nine months, and almost a fifth in only four years. The affordability barometer, in which 100 points represents the average expense of house prices since the early 1960s, is now at 94.3 points. advertisement Houses become less affordable when prices rise faster than earnings. A rise in interest rates also makes life more difficult and all of these factors are taken into account in the research. The figures coincide with a warning from one of the country's leading economics experts that interest rates could rise by more than one per cent to more than six per cent within 18 months. This comes days after statistics showed that the average homebuyer is borrowing 6.5 times their salary when taking on a new property. The investment bank Morgan Stanley and the consultants PriceWaterhouseCoopers warned that there is a high chance of a severe fall in house prices in the coming years. Prices rose sharply over the past decade, sparking fears that, when families realise they cannot afford to a new home, the market could be badly hit, with knock-on consequences for the rest of the economy. But many first-time buyers, whose numbers are already at record lows, will still be prevented from taking their first step on to the housing ladder this year, since prices are unlikely to stop rising in the near future, Lombard Street Research (LSR) warned. The analysts were the only major forecaster to predict correctly rapid house price inflation of almost 10 per cent in 2006. An LSR economist, Diana Choyleva, said she thought prices could rise by as much as 15 per cent in 2007. But she warned that if the Bank of England did not prevent people taking on excessive debt by raising interest rates, it risked laying the foundations of another major collapse. "The Bank could risk finally spawning a house price bubble in 2008," she said. "Our affordability indicator extended its fall in the third quarter of 2006 and is likely to have declined further in the fourth quarter." Mervyn King, the Bank's governor, said last May: "Relative to average earnings or incomes, or anything else you could look at, house prices do seem remarkably high." Since then, prices have risen further still, making it likely that the Bank will be wary of encouraging people to take on more debt. Prof David Smith of the University of Derby, the chairman of the "shadow" monetary policy committee, has predicted that — far from falling later this year as many City experts think — borrowing rates could rise from their present level of five per cent to reach 6.25 per cent midway through 2008. The prediction will come as a blow for households, many of whom are already struggling to meet their monthly mortgage payments and other bills. Prof Smith said he feared the Bank would take this decisive action to take control of the burgeoning level of personal debt, which has now passed £1,300 billion. This, and the likelihood that the pound could fall against other currencies, could force it to raise interest rates. "The MPC will be batting on a very sticky wicket over the next few years," said Prof Smith. "Rates are expected to end 2007 at 5.75 per cent, and rise to 6-6.25 per cent in 2008." He said that the Bank had left interest rates at too low a level for too long and would soon have to face the consequences. He predicted another year of rising house prices, but warned that as borrowing costs become too great for many families, the market will slow dramatically, before going into reverse in 2009. \ \ \
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Duncan	02-Jan-07, 07:17 AM (GMT)
10. "the New World Order of Debt Servitude"
http://www.safehaven.com/article-6622.htm look for either a near term blow off in stocks and most other assets along with a notable decline in the US Dollar toward the closely watched 80 level. This would prompt higher interest rates which would eventually put a stop to the Goldilocks foolishness. Or alternatively, the numerous bearish divergences in many markets fulfill themselves in the form of strong and downright scary corrections. This could eventually lead to new highs across many asset classes down the road as monetary policy makers, fully aware of the cards this house is built with, panic yet again with the idea of not letting any domino's start to fall. I believe the bears have an opportunity coming in the near term. The question is, will it be the opportunity of a lifetime or merely a nice trade? \ \ \ http://www.safehaven.com/article-6624.htm \ \ \ http://www.safehaven.com/article-6623.htm Summary Interest rates are key - if the long end rises much further there is going to be trouble in paper fiat land, via mortgages and real estate, and all the derivatives and structured finance that no one knows how it will function under fire. Three standard deviations and its all burnt toast. They've set the pins up - now all that's left is the knocking them down. We wish it wasn't so, but we are afraid it is. It might be a good time to cut back on any form of debt, and to place some savings in gold and silver. The dollar looks like its ready to fall over the next cliff in its descent into the underworld. The ferryman may not even allow it to cross over to the other side. None of which has been lost to the precious metal markets. The next leg up appears to be close at hand. Needless to say, the stock market has performed admirably - the Dow is up 16% for the year, a most respectable showing. We still prefer gold and silver stocks - some of which move that much in a couple of week's time. We can't help but think of those who think "bigger and badder", yet don't carry the idea to its further logical conclusions. If one can be the puppeteer of the world, how hard can it be to play one man? What would you do if you were "bigger and badder".
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