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Duncan	26-Mar-06, 07:41 AM (GMT)
"dim in zim"
The Sunday Times March 26, 2006 Cost of caring for the elderly set to double Sarah-Kate Templeton, Medical Correspondent SPENDING on care for the elderly will have to double over the next 20 years to cope with a surge in the numbers of sick and disabled old people, a report to be published this week is expected to warn. The research predicts that the number of people aged 85 and over will increase by two-thirds while the figure for sick pensioners will rise even more steeply. The 15-month investigation has been carried out by Sir Derek Wanless, a former chief executive of NatWest, on behalf of the King’s Fund, a health think tank. A previous report by Wanless on the National Health Service was used by Labour to justify the surge in spending on the health service. Wanless will warn that although life expectancy will continue to increase, pensioners will also spend growing periods of their retirement coping with disabilities. It was previously believed that the amount of time that pensioners spent being sick or disabled would remain constant or even shrink with the help of medical advances. However, the report warns that this will not be the case. Instead, many of the extra years will be spent being sick and in need of care. Trends between 1981 and 2001 show that increases in the number of years of good health have not kept pace with improvements in total life expectancy. The number of sick elderly people, or those with disabilities, will increase by 57%-69% over the next 20 years. Wanless is expected to warn that the amount spent by government, individuals and organisations on caring for these sick and disabled elderly people will need to increase from £10 billion a year to about £20 billion or more by 2026. He will say the money should go into helping vulnerable old people stay at home rather than moving into residential care. This would reflect the desire of most pensioners not to go into an institution and would be feasible if investment was put into intensive support at home. Wanless will say that more should be spent on services such as meals on wheels, help with washing and personal hygiene as well as nursing care to be administered in people’s own homes, along with the care provided in institutions. The report, Securing Good Social Care for Older People: Taking a Long-term View, is also expected to say that the unpopular system of means- testing old people before giving them access to free care should be scrapped. It will point out that under the current system there is a “significant unmet need” as well as anger that elderly people who have paid tax all their lives are forced to use up almost all their savings, and in some cases sell their homes, to obtain care. One recommendation expected to be put forward is that care is paid for by a “partnership” of funding between the government and contributions from private savings. A basic level of service would be universally available free of charge while housing costs, at home or in a residential care home, would continue to be means-tested. The aim is that far fewer people would need to sell their home in order to pay for care. Elderly people would be able to top up basic care by paying for additional services. The report is expected to say that old people with moderate disabilities are going without care because social services budgets are being concentrated on the most needy. ///// The Sunday Times March 26, 2006 Mugabe’s elderly live on 13p a month Christina Lamb, Bulawayo IN ONE hand Frank Wiggill holds his monthly pension statement and in the other a 500 gram packet of salt. It is the only thing in the supermarket that his pension will buy, unless he prefers to splash out on two eggs. When Wiggill retired after 38 years as an engine driver on the Zimbabwean railways, he looked forward to enjoying his twilight years in comfort. Instead he and his wife Jeanette depend on monthly food parcels from well-wishers and handouts from their son in South Africa. The collapsing currency combined with the world’s highest inflation — estimated at more than 1,000% a year — has cut their pension to 13p a month. “It’s embarrassing,” said Wiggill, 79. “I worked all my life and here I am living on food parcels of milk powder and toilet paper.” His monthly pension of Z$49,000 is less than the cost of a newspaper (Z$50,000) or a loaf of bread (Z$70,000). It would take him two months to buy a pint of milk (Z$89,000) and nine months to afford the cheapest pack of four toilet rolls (Z$440,000). “The pension is a laugh,” he said. “It must cost them Z$25,000 to post the statement.” This month the Wiggills received nothing. Deductions for three items on prescription (Z$30,000 a time) after Wiggill cut down a cactus and got poisonous sap in his eye left him Z$41,000 in debt to the pension company. At the same time the monthly rates on his bungalow have increased to Z$679,124. Water and electricity are extra. Like most Zimbabwean pensioners, the only way the Wiggills can survive is by selling their possessions. First they sold their Ford Cortina. Then Frank’s beloved piano and Jeanette’s sewing machine. Next to go will be the precious Royal Doulton plates commemorating the centenary of Cecil Rhodes’s founding of Rhodesia. They placed the proceeds from the car with a lump sum from their son in an investment fund from which they received a monthly income. But two months ago the fund was suspended, leaving them with no income apart from the pension. “We’ll keep selling more and more till eventually we’ll have nothing left,” Jeanette said. After learning from auctioneers that pensioners were selling their furniture to buy food, people in the community set up the Bulawayo Help Network. Three groups formed. One, which helps to pay rates and rent, is funded by a benefactor; one donates medicines; and the other provides food parcels for 200 pensioners. All the organisations asked not to be named, fearing that President Robert Mugabe would close them and arrest their volunteers. That helping pensioners is a clandestine activity in Zimbabwe illustrates just how repressive the Mugabe regime has become. Many of the pensioners say they would die of hunger were it not for the volunteers. The Wiggills’ case is typical. According to one of the distributors of the food parcels, some receive as little as $4,000 — less than 1½p. “I’ve come across some so desperate that they are living on blackjacks (seeds),” he said. “My own mother-in-law receives just Z$4,000 and she is a diabetic whose drugs cost at least $4.5m a month.” Yet they are well aware that in their pleasant homes with crocheted seat covers and proper beds, they are still better off than millions of black Zimbabweans, many of whom had their homes demolished last year in Operation Murambatswina, Mugabe’s clean-up campaign, and are now living in makeshift shelters of plastic sheets and scrap metal. After comfortable middle-class lives, sending children to good schools and employing maids and gardeners, the white pensioners find it difficult to get used to charity. “They’ve turned us into welfare cases which is not a nice feeling when you’ve worked all your life,” said Val Goodes, whose husband John worked for 36 years as an auditor for the railway company and has a pension of Z$129,000 (about 30p). Like the Wiggills, the couple are sent money by their children. “You just scrape by,” said Goodes. “We long ago stopped buying dairy products or fruit. When the kettle blew up, we found an old pot. When the iron went, we stopped ironing things. Now the element has gone in the oven so I can’t bake.” Their biggest fear is falling ill. The public health system is in such a state of collapse that hospitals do not have sterile gloves or hand-wash solution. Private hospitals demand money up front. “As for dentists, well I will just have to die with the broken teeth I have,” Goodes said. “It’s very stressful,” Wiggill agreed. “I lay awake at night worrying about the situation, which doesn’t help the health.” Finding himself almost destitute is not easy for a proud man who worked throughout the bush war in the 1970s when his trains carried armed guards and had three steel trucks on the front in case they hit landmines. “I feel so isolated,” he said. “I used to go with friends to the pub for a beer or fishing but now cannot go anywhere, so I don’t know what’s going on.” The couple’s television and hi-fi blew up in a lightning storm. Their only source of entertainment is a transistor radio. It is too far to walk into town and there is no bus service. The few old people who go to a supermarket often stare dumbfounded at the million-dollar prices and leave with a single egg or a bread roll. To buy this may mean queueing for an hour as shoppers count out stacks of Z$20,000 notes. The last official inflation figure was 782% in February, but most businesses estimate that it is well over 1,000%. University students recently went on strike in protest at astronomical fee increases. Arts and humanities courses rose from Z$3m to Z$30m a year and medical courses from Z$4m to Z$60m. Mugabe said recently that the solution to the economic crisis was printing more money. The dollar is now worth so little that some people use petrol vouchers as currency. Most shops have counting machines or scales but some have stopped counting, preferring to compare the heights of bundles of notes. “I just let people pay in bricks,” said the owner of an upmarket Harare restaurant where bills often reach Z$50m-Z$60m. Christina Lamb will be talking about her new book on Zimbabwe at The Sunday Times Oxford Literary Festival on Tuesday at 12.30pm ///// http://www.mubadala.ae/en/content/about_uae.asp //// The Sunday Times March 26, 2006 Abu Dhabi woos UK companies The Arab emirate plans to invest more than $100 billion to diversify away from oil and gas, reports Tracey Boles AT Buckingham Palace last week, the Duke of York hosted a lavish dinner for the biggest trade delegation ever to visit Britain from Abu Dhabi, the largest and richest of the seven city states that make up the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Among the Abu Dhabi delegates eating trout terrine and roast lamb with the top brass of British industry was Khaldoon Khalifa Al Mubarak, a man who has enjoyed a swift rise through the emirate’s political and business circles. Al Mubarak, in his early thirties, is a member of the Abu Dhabi executive council and chief executive of Mubadala Development Company, a government-backed investment vehicle that uses foreign direct investment to establish new businesses in Abu Dhabi and acquires stakes in foreign firms. Last year, for example, Mubadala bought a 5% stake in Ferrari, which is helping to develop a Ferrari theme park in Abu Dhabi. Mubadala is at the forefront of an investment drive by Abu Dhabi’s crown prince Sheikh Mohammed. The ambition is to invest more than $100 billion in the emirate over the next seven years to diversify away from oil and gas, and create jobs for the fast-growing and educated 1.5m population. Last week’s delegation, which included the chief executives of the Abu Dhabi national oil company ADNOC and the emirate’s airline, Etihad Airways, had come to woo British investors. The UAE is a former British protectorate and already Britain’s ninth-largest international trade customer, with exports totalling £5.5 billion last year. The UAE was formed in 1971 from seven emirates. The most prominent are Dubai and Abu Dhabi. The latter controls 95% of the UAE’s hydrocarbon reserves, or 9% of the world’s proven oil and 3.5% of its gas. Despite its rich reserves and the fact it occupies 87% of the UAE’s territory, Abu Dhabi has been outshone by Dubai, which is constructing a series of record-breaking developments at home and has pursued trophy assets abroad, notably P&O, the ports and ferries group. After the death in 2004 of Abu Dhabi’s ruler Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan, the new, younger leadership decided to invest the emirate’s multi-billion-dollar oil surplus at home and abroad. Mubadala, set up in 2002, is one of the emirate’s main investment vehicles. It is advising on a $10 billion expansion of the international airport and a new $8 billion port. Earlier this year, it joined forces with Dubai Aluminium to invest $6 billion in the world’s largest aluminium smelter. It owns 7% of Aldar Properties, an Abu Dhabi company that will oversee $30 billion of property development. Al Mubarak said: “The next five to eight years will be a very exciting time. I think it is like the early days of Singapore.” According to Al Mubarak, a template for future projects will be Dolphin Energy, a $4.5 billion joint venture between Mubadala, France’s Total and America’s Occidental to extract gas in Qatar and transport it by pipeline to the UAE. Mubadala has a 51% stake in the project, which is under construction. Al Mubarak is also on the lookout for acquisitions in Britain, particularly among financial-services firms, healthcare providers and property developers. Kingsmill Bond, Deutsche Bank’s head of emerging-market strategy, said: “Abu Dhabi is an attractive, long-term story because of the oil price and the domestic reforms being pushed through. These days, there is better openness and use of money in the emirate.” In 2003, the value of British investment in the UAE stood at £736m. That is set to rise. Rolls-Royce and Shell have already signed memorandums of understanding with Mubadala, and other British companies could follow suit. ////// The Sunday Times March 26, 2006 Property tycoon loses millions in hedge fund failure Douglas Dalby MARK KAVANAGH, the millionaire property developer, has lost millions following the collapse in value of PlusFunds, a promising hedge funds management firm. The hedge fund manager was ensnared in the collapse of Refco Capital, the disgraced American broker. A New York court agreed last week to the sale of PlusFunds, which was valued last year at more than $200m (€166m), for just $5m. The firm was forced to seek bankruptcy protection last month after investors deserted in their droves when a separate court froze $312m of investors’ funds held in Refco accounts. Assets under management had dwindled from $2.5 billion to $1 billion in the first two months of this year. According to an affidavit filed with the firm’s bankruptcy petition, Kavanagh owns 6.11% of PlusFunds in his own name. He also owns a minority interest in another shareholder, Suffolk LLC, giving him effective ownership of about 22% of the firm. The developer invested €2.5m in the company and has loaned it $1m to enable it to trade through its bankruptcy protection. “Mr Kavanagh agreed to make a loan because of his commitment to the company and because there were no other available sources of financing on terms as beneficial to PlusFunds,” Kavanagh’s spokesman said. PlusFunds placed money in several hedge fund operators, including Refco, with which it had a strong relationship. Chris Sugrue, the co-founder and chairman of PlusFunds, had been an executive at Refco before starting his own company in 1998. Sugrue helped secure a $208m loan from Refco in 2005 to buy out minority shareholders in PlusFunds. “The loan from Refco Capital LLC to Suffolk LLC has been declared in default as a result of the chapter 11 filing of PlusFunds,” Kavanagh’s spokesman said. “Refco Capital has not at this time exercised any rights related to the default.” Sugrue told The Wall Street Journal last week that PlusFunds “got caught up in a drive-by shooting” in the wake of the Refco scandal. He rejects any suggestions of wrongdoing in the Refco affair. Refco filed for bankruptcy protection in October 2005 in the wake of revelations that Phillip Bennett, its former chief executive, had hidden bad debts of $400m in the run-up to its August flotation. Kavanagh, who famously donated IR£100,000 to Charles Haughey earned his fortune through developer Hardwicke. ////// The Sunday Times March 26, 2006 Hidden bombshells in a 'dull' budget An apparently unspectacular speech masked a sustained attack on tax loopholes, writes William Kay GORDON BROWN has throughout his 10 budgets made a point of using his speech to put an hour’s gloss on what often turns out to be 1,000 pages of tax and spending measures — and last week he excelled himself. Whether it is because this was widely believed to be the chancellor’s last budget, or simply that he has become slicker through sheer practice, his selective reading of economic analysis, public projects and attacks on tax loopholes was more disingenuous than ever. Within an hour of Brown sitting down, accountants’ e-mails were beginning to wing their way across the ether, using phrases such as “bombshell”, “draconian”, “devastating”, “broken trust” and “all talk, no action”. And this for a budget that was rated one of Brown’s duller efforts. And dull it was, from the point of view of income and spending taxes. Most were unchanged, or adjusted only in line with inflation. He even made a few little jokes about champagne and flip-flops. City traders were caught by a half-expected tax on bonuses paid in other than cash, such as options or shares in unquoted companies. That wasn’t so bad: what hurt was that it was backdated to the start of December 2004 — two bonus rounds ago. But from the point of view of personal finance, the real controversy centred on “the two I’s” — investment and inheritance tax (IHT). Whenever Brown moves on from 11 Downing Street, the success of his granting the Bank of England independence will be matched by the opprobrium raining down on him over IHT. What was previously a marginal impost, mainly affecting those who could afford to hire lawyers to dilute its effect, is rapidly becoming a mainstream tax-gathering machine that is plainly troubling millions of people. Brown insists it hits only 6% of households, but it’s not so long since that was 4%. If IHT continues to bite at its present level — about 50% above the national average house price — then, as homeowners die, the net will widen inexorably. More pensioners’ estates will pay IHT on the remnants of their pension pot, but then, until now the whole lot has been confiscated under the annuity principle that you never see your original capital again. This is obviously something for pensioners to mull over while they spend endless hours criss-crossing the country on their free bus passes — those, that is, who are still alive when that scheme begins in 2008. The rest will just have to warm themselves on their £200 winter fuel allowance, which has been stretched to the limit and beyond by this year’s prolonged winter. But the main IHT sting this time was in Brown’s move to prevent trusts being used to avoid the tax. Like the City bonus tax, this was also backdated — indefinitely. Any trust that is outlawed, principally “interest in possession” and “accumulation and maintenance” varieties, is caught no matter how long it has been established. On the investment side, the balance between venture-capital trusts and enterprise-investment schemes was tilted towards the latter, reversing a trend going back several years. However, only companies worth less than £7m will be eligible for either scheme, which is likely to be a bit too risky for a lot of investors. And, after many delays, real-estate investment trusts were given a firm date for their appearance: next January. They will bring together property managers and investors, as they are more attractive to both than existing property investment vehicles. To that extent, they may do a little to wean the British public off investing in residential property. And it looks as if the traditional, post-new year panic to send off tax returns will from 2008 be replaced by a similar rush as soon as millions of people shake the sand of their summer holidays out of their hair. The deadline for filing paper self-assessment tax returns has been brought forward by four months, to September 30, but you get another two months if you file online. This follows Lord Carter’s review of the government’s online services, in which he said he wanted to smooth the spike in activity at Revenue & Customs — which might mean they won’t be quite so tough on those who miss the new deadlines. The Association of Chartered Certified Accountants described the measure as “draconian”, named after Draco, an Athenian politician whose legal code was renowned for its severity. WHAT BROWN’S SPEECH MEANS FOR YOU From 2008, the self-assessment deadline for tax returns will be brought forward from January 31 to September 30 for paper forms, November 30 online. The personal tax allowance will rise from £4,895 to £5,035 on April 6; it will go up £190 for those aged 65-74 to £7,280, and for over-75s it will rise £200 to £7,420. The first £2,150 (previously £2,090) of taxable income after personal-tax allowance will be taxed at 10%. The basic rate of 22% will be payable between earnings of £2,151 and £33,300. Earnings over £33,300 (previously £32,400) will be taxed at 40%. The primary class 1 lower earnings limit for national insurance contributions goes up £2 a week to £84; the upper earnings limit increases by £15 a week to £645. The capital-gains tax-free allowance rises to £8,800 a year, from £8,500. As well as the £250 child trust fund payment at birth, another £250 voucher will be sent at the age of seven, £500 for children of lower-paid families. Inheritance-tax rates will be increased gradually from £275,000 to £325,000 over four years: to £285,000 in 2006-7, £300,000 in 2007-8, £312,000 in 2008-9 and £325,000 in 2009-10. Tax relief for venture capital trusts will be cut from 40% to 30% from April 6; the maximum value of qualifying company will fall from £15m to £7m; the minimum investment period will rise from three to five years. The limit per investment for enterprise investment schemes doubles to £400,000, tax relief stays at 20% and the minimum period remains three years. But, as with VCTs, the maximum value of company is halved to £7m. There is a new, seven-stage car excise duty, from zero for cars with the lowest emissions, such as the Toyota Prius, to £210 for the worst polluters, including 4x4s, that generate 225 grams of carbon dioxide per kilometre. Exemption to stamp duty on residential house purchases rises immediately to £125,000, from £120,000. ///// The Sunday Times March 26, 2006 The rush for liquid assets Properties by the sea, a river or a lake show the fastest-rising values, reports Graham Norwood Antony and Carol Buller really do love to be beside the seaside — and they’re willing to pay for it, too. Their Grade II-listed cottage, appropriately called the Moorings, is on the River Arun at Arundel in West Sussex. It was owned by Antony’s parents and grandparents before he took it over, and the tourist boat-trip business run by the couple has been in the family for 200 years. “We even go to work by boat. Living so close to the river can be hair-raising when the tide’s at its highest, but that’s the beauty of it. No two views are ever the same,” he says. Now they are selling the home and business and moving to the Isles of Scilly, one of Britain’s premier seaside locations, where values far exceed the £350,000 price tag on their Sussex home. Research by the Halifax chain of estate agents shows that some of the UK’s 10 most expensive coastal towns — all in southern England or East Anglia — have typical prices that are two or three times the national average of £166,000. In the decade from 1995 to 2005, Falmouth in Cornwall topped the league of seaside appreciation; prices rose 311.5% against the UK average of 186%. “There’s an enduring appeal of waterside properties,” says Simon Milledge, waterside properties specialist at The Buying Solution, a buying agency that finds homes for wealthy clients. “The rarest of all are good-quality private period houses with their own moorings. Very few come on sale because they tend to be handed down in families. Those that are sold often change hands without going on the open market. Word of mouth is the medium, and buyers pay big premiums. “Estuary properties have the next highest premium — again, they can be rare, especially if they are private.” A house with four moorings and a private beach, in East Portlemouth in south Devon, overlooking the Salcombe estuary, recently went on the market with Marchand Petit for £2.75m and was under offer for £3m within days. Milledge says homes overlooking lakes come next. Those in new marina developments and on canal banks both attract smaller premiums, but are more readily available. “But a marina, in particular, galvanises an area. It attracts younger people to a coastal resort. They, in turn, entice shops and restaurants, and living standards shoot up. Look at Poole, Plymouth, Cardiff and so many other places — these schemes really work.” A survey by The Sunday Times of 20 estate agencies specialising in homes in coastal and canal locations show that properties with moorings are typically 30% more expensive than identical properties inland. Top- quality homes without moorings but with uninterrupted estuary or river views have a 25% premium, while flats and houses at modern marinas, at lakesides or on the banks of canals attract 15%-25% extra. Here’s your guide to the waterside property premiums: 1. Moorings: Direct, private moorings provide the ultimate access to the water and therefore attract the largest premiums. “They add 20%-30% to the price,” says Nicholas Brown of Knight Frank’s Henley- on-Thames office, which sells homes with moorings on the Thames. “River authorities are cautious about allowing more to be built, so there’s a finite number, and sailing enthusiasts are willing to pay. I sold a house with moorings for £6m — without them it would have been about £4m.” The downside? “In the summer the area can be busy with boats passing and so on, and privacy is sometimes a problem,” he admits. 2. Classic estuary and river houses: Penrhyn Bach Farm on Gorad Beach, Anglesey, is a “perfect example” of a period house with an uninterrupted view of an estuary, says local estate agent Melfyn Williams — which accounts for the 25% premium. Most rooms in the four-bedroom, 19th-century house overlook the waterfront. Its asking price is £625,000. “But it would be valued at about £450,000 if it was inland. These views are very rare — it’s three years since we had a property like this on sale,” he says. But estuary homes do have problems, warns Nicola Oddy, who works for Stacks buying agency and specialises in waterside property. “Quite often, estuaries attract people who want relative isolation, so if you buy one that is in a terrace or has others in view, it may take longer than you expect to resell it. Also, because of the spectacular locations, some owners put up large glass conservatories. They give fabulous views but can look awful when you are on the estuary looking back,” she says. 3. Modern marinas: Dart Marina at Dartmouth, Devon, is Britain’s newest marina, launching next month with 33 homes on the edge of what many regard as one of the finest sailing rivers in the UK. But the homes buck the well-worn trend of mock-New England clapboard marina houses. Instead, the exterior of each property is modelled on a distinctive Dartmouth house type. The interiors are more London high-rise than Devon, and every property has an uninterrupted view of the 110-berth marina and the river. “It’s the ultimate lock-up-and- leave property for those travelling between homes in different locations,” says Jane Summers of Knight Frank, the selling agent. Prices are almost as eye- watering as the views: £800,000 to £1.4m, setting new records in this part of the southwest. The few comparable inland properties sell for, at most, 75% of the price of those at the marina. 4. Lakeside: “A home overlooking a lake is perhaps the most universally popular waterside home,” says John Denney of Hamptons International. “There’s always a premium attached and it could be, say, 10%-15%. It doesn’t matter if you’re not a sailor because you can enjoy the view. These properties generally aren’t popular with young families because of the danger to children. Otherwise, a lake is a big plus. Individuals and developers even try to add them where possible, either to an individual home or to a scheme,” says Denney. This has happened at Lower Mill Estate, a 450-acre second- home development on the fringe of the Cotswolds in Gloucestershire. Lakes have been created from quarries and gravel pits, raising the asking prices of 120 properties available in the current phase, all of which overlook water. Prices range from £395,000 to £2.4m. 6. Canals: British Waterways, responsible for 2,000 miles of canals across the UK, says a typical new home built on its banks costs at least 20% more than a comparable property inland. “Canal banks have really opened up in the past five years, and nearly all development has been residential,” says Fiona Sadek, head of research at property consultancy Colliers CRE and the author of a new report on waterside development. “Although some canals are in rural areas, the biggest premiums happen when you have waterside accommodation right in the middle of a city.” The Wharf, a new canal development in Chichester built by Seaward Properties, is typical of the trend. Houses start at £405,000, with the premium paid for the view and proximity to the city centre, which is only a 10-minute walk away. This month, British Waterways announced plans for another 50 canals to have large residential developments, with profits from land sales to developers ploughed back to restore old canals and maintain existing ones. “This trend is here to stay,” says the organisation. The Moorings is for sale with Cluttons, 01903 882 213, www.cluttons.co.uk; Penrhyn Bach Farm with Williams & Goodwin, 01407 760 500, www.tppuk.com; Dart Marina through Knight Frank, 01392 848 844, www.dartmarina.com; Lower Mill Estate, 01285 869 489, www.lowermillestate.com; The Wharf Chichester, 01243 790 581, www.seawardhomes.co.uk //////
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Duncan	26-Mar-06, 09:01 AM (GMT)
1. "Second thoughts are usually better than first impressions"
Madness: Britain's mental health time bomb New figures reveal one in five people will need treatment. Which is why experts are calling £20m cuts in services 'cruel and insane' By Sophie Goodchild, Chief Reporter Published: 26 March 2006 Health authorities are secretly cutting millions of pounds in funding for psychiatric services, despite alarming new evidence of a crisis affecting an estimated one in five people in Britain. In a move branded "the real madness" by health experts, debt-ridden NHS trusts are slashing budgets and cutting care for the mentally ill. An Independent on Sunday investigation has established that trusts are planning to cut more than £20m from budgets ear-marked for psychiatric care, using the cash to bail out other parts of the NHS instead. In some parts of the country, primary care trusts have drawn up secret measures to slash spending on mental health care by up to a third. With new figures today showing that children as young as seven are now being affected in an epidemic that costs Britain £100bn each year, the disclosures were seized on as evidence that mental health services were at breaking point. Marjorie Wallace, head of the mental health charity Sane, last night described the plight of the estimated 10 million people suffering from mental illness as a "scandal bordering on cruel". "The real madness is that, while we are bringing in reforms, UK health trusts in debt are turning first to cutting mental health services. It's cruel and insane." Last week, following this newspaper's four-year campaign, the Government dropped its controversial Mental Health Bill. Ministers announced the abandonment of their draft reforms in response to widespread opposition by psychiatrists, politicians and patients who had labelled them "unworkable and draconian". These measures included the extension of powers to lock up people suspected of mental illness who had not committed a crime and plans to force those living in the community into taking medication. A short list of reforms will now be added to existing mental health laws instead, a move which has been cautiously welcomed by campaigners. But the news that key services are being cut back is expected to push the issue of how Britain cares for the mentally ill back to the top of the political agenda. It comes as a raft of new reports confirm the growing problem of mental illness in the UK, made worse by drug abuse, family break-ups and alcoholism. Reports by the Mental Health Foundation and the World Health Organisation reveal: * 1 in 15 children self-harming; * 19,000 suicide attempts by teenagers every year; * 20 per cent of people suffering from genuine mental distress such as anxiety or depression and in need of urgent help; * 25,000 people sectioned every year under the Mental Health Act. A report to be published tomorrow by Childline will reveal that as many as 1 75,000 children are being deprived of their childhoods because they have been forced into caring for lonely and depressed parents who have been abandoned by services. Charities say that mental health remains the Cinderella of the NHS and warn of a mental health timebomb if money is wasted on badly thought-out measures. They have reacted with fury to private comments by ministers that the cutbacks are "minor". "People are labelled 'mad' but what is the real madness?" said Sophie Corlett, policy director at Mind. "Cutting overstrained services struggling desperately to serve some of the most vulnerable people in society?" © 2006 Independent News and Media Limited /////// Confessions of a rent girl She may look like a million dollars but it's all going back to the shop in the morning. Hermione Eyre cashes in on the growing fashion of label-leasing Published: 26 March 2006 Ever dreamed of getting your hands on a sparkling Cartier watch, that must-have Chloe Paddington handbag or a to-die-for Lanvin gown? The good news is that you can almost certainly afford them. The bad, that you'll only have them for a few hours and then have to give them back. An increasing number of businesses are tapping into a rapidly growing market for "leased luxury". If you're the type of person who needs to keep abreast of the fast-moving currents of fashion, or simply someone who covets a taste of the celebrity world, now pretty much anyone can rent a fantasy life - and wardrobe. All the elements for a red carpet-worthy outfit are readily available, from handbags and shoes to diamond rings and even bejewelled tiaras - all for less than the price of a first class rail fare from London to Manchester. And so I find myself out on the King's Road in London, having what you might call a Cinderella experience. By the end of it, I'm sashaying around in a valuable gown, extravagant heels and enough jewellery to invite a heist. (The 1920s diamond and platinum tiara alone is worth £40,000). The outfit is glamorous in the extreme. But tomorrow everything will be returned, and all I'll be left with is a couple of receipts and a small, red indentation on my wrist where the diamond bracelet hung. Poor little Cinders? Well, not entirely. Taking back all these items may well be for the best, as I'm frankly not sure if I look like a million bucks or Lady Muck. But that's precisely what has made this rental culture so popular: you can make style mistakes that don't bulldoze your bank account and won't hang around in the back of your wardrobe reproaching you for years. A lot of other people are beginning to think the same way, with scores of companies springing up to embrace the luxury leasing market. Web-based Be-A-Fashionista.co.uk offers hundreds of top-of-the-range handbags to subscribers, with monthly rates from under £20. Members order the latest "it" bag of their choice, keep it for as long as they want, and then exchange it for the next bag that takes their fancy - impressing anyone who is paying attention but without making a massive dent in their (rented) purse. "We deal strictly with high-end designer labels like Gucci, Fendi, Chloé and Hermès," said Sally Monroe, a spokeswoman for the company. "Women love variety and this is the way for them to have access to that perfect closet." It is a similar story at One Night Stand, a London-based company specialising in luxury rentals for women. Leasing everything from the latest evening dresses to accessories and bags, the business has seen an increase of more than 20 per cent over the past year. "A lot of women want to take it a step above Monsoon or Topshop, but can't necessarily afford to," said Joanna Doniger, the owner. "We can offer them that opportunity. It's about choice, but it's also fun, and it's fast." One of the leading leasers of luxury millinery, Hats Etc of Kensington, has reported a 50 per cent rise in rentals over the past two years. "We've become more of a disposable society," said manager Jenny Thorne. "Celebrities are constantly changing their images and this is filtering down." I can see the point. For a one-off occasion, renting means that you don't have to think about pedestrian concerns such as long-term versatility or room-for-growth. It's also fun to wear, for one evening, an ensemble with a market value equivalent to a small studio flat, three Mercedes, or a public school education. A friend of mine got married in an Imperial Russian tiara; the bodyguard added a certain flashiness to the day. But I can't honestly see the point of hiring a very expensive Hermès handbag for the weekend unless you are aiming to give a false impression of your wealth and status, although I can see the point of hiring one for a job interview, since wealth, as they say, begets wealth. A drawback with hiring is that you are wearing something many strangers have danced, drunk and sweated in. No amount of dry cleaning can exorcise that knowledge. However, this can also be a source of cachet. A Prussian princess, apparently, wore my sequinned Serenade dress before me, and a "celebrity'' is going to wear my tiara to a wedding next week. And a borrowed antique piece of jewellery certainly has more character than a new paste/zirconia combination that's yours to keep. All told, I found hiring a positive experience - almost as good as buying vintage. Renting is ecological, and feels like a good pooling of female resources. Possession is so passé. Additional reporting by Jonathan Thompson and Oscar Rickett © 2006 Independent News and Media Limited ///// Hamish McRae: Brown can fast-forward revenue but what flatters the finances now is gone tomorrow Bringing forward tax receipts may conceal a deterioration Published: 26 March 2006 Second thoughts are usually better than first impressions, and with Gordon Brown's Budgets this is particularly the case. First impressions last week were of no change on the economic side but of a political manifesto for the next leader. Lots of minute tweaks to both tax and spending but no economic surprises - coupled with broad political aspirations about the future of the country. Among the critics, the immediate focus was on spending and especially the extent to which the additional money for the NHS has been wasted. The hospital closures have rather underscored the critics' case, since the expansion of NHS funding was based on Derek Wanless's report, commissioned by the Chancellor. This is a legitimate line of criticism in that the surge of spending on the NHS continues for another year or so, but it goes back to decisions made several years ago. It is not really about this Budget. I think that when the experts have had time to claw over the Budget, they will focus not on the spending but on the revenue side - and the Government's struggle to collect the extra taxation it needs to keep the fiscal deficit under control. When a new finance director looks at the affairs of a company under pressure, there are two immediate things to be done. One is to find ways of funding spending that do not require cash to go out now - paying bills more slowly or selling surplus assets. The other is to send out bills earlier and collect debts more aggressively. We know the Government is doing the former. I have not heard of payments being delayed yet - "the cheque is in the post" response - but if it builds a hospital through a private finance deal, the capital cost is spread over 30 years and the implicit borrowing does not show up in the public sector borrowing requirement. But hardly any attention is being paid to the extent to which revenue is being brought forward. There was a surprise jump in corporation tax receipts in January, which may have been the result of a tougher stance by the Revenue: there seems anecdotally to have been a rise in tax investigations. But the explicit bringing forward of tax is under the radar. There was one hint in the Budget that this is a planned policy. People who file individual tax accounts will now have to submit them several months earlier. That won't in itself bring in the money sooner, but it would make it possible for the Revenue to ask for part-payment of a tax liability at an earlier date. You cannot be asked to pay tax until the return is in; once it is, you can. As it happens, I have come across two examples in recent weeks of this effort to bring forward revenue. One is that people who have income from savings - so-called "unearned income" - are being asked to make an early part-payment. The other is a change to the dividend income from small family firms. The practice in the past has been for the company to wait until the end of the year, review the profits, make a decision about a dividend and pay it. Now, apparently, it is required to have a board meeting before the end of the financial year, decide on a dividend and actually pay it before the its financial year ends. The result is that the firm pays out two dividends in the same year - nice for the shareholders except that they have to pay their own tax one year earlier than they otherwise would. How big are these changes? Have a look at the pie chart. Income tax is huge, by far the largest single tax, with £144bn expected to come in this coming financial year. Leave aside PAYE - of which more in a moment - and let's say that the non-PAYE segment is £40bn. All you need is for 10 per cent of that tax to come into an earlier year and that is £4bn - more than the entire revenue for inheritance tax. In addition there are small tweaks to PAYE. For example, if a company pension scheme is changed from a group scheme to a group personal scheme (sorry, I am not quite nerdy enough to understand the difference), people initially get only basic tax relief on their pension contributions. The higher-rate tax is claimed back later. Yes, they can get their code changed by ringing up the tax office but the default option brings money into the Treasury earlier. Ultimately, no more money will be collected but it is perfectly plausible that 1 per cent of the PAYE revenue could come in a tax year earlier. That is £1bn. So what? Ultimately there is no change to the Government's revenue. But if £5bn comes into the 2005-06 national accounts instead of the 2006-07 ones, it would conceal the underlying deterioration of tax receipts. In the longer term, the improvement disappears. If people wise up to what is happening, they will adjust their behaviour. High-net-worth individuals pay a disproportionate amount of income tax; their accountants will spring into action. But meanwhile a sudden extra inflow of cash will make Mr Brown's revenue projections appear more credible. Despite his reputation as a stealth-taxer, it is only in this year that the proportion of tax relative to GDP has passed the level when he came in. The tough bit is now. At one level, this aim to collect money sooner is perfectly sensible. The Government is behaving like a tightly run business. We have all had experiences of companies that demand money upfront and pay their bills late: on the one hand, the pestering phone call asking for payment, and on the other, the "Terribly sorry, my screen crashed and I couldn't put it through. I'll make sure it catches next month's accounts." The examples sketched above are my worm's-eye experience in the past few months; there must be scores of other devices. But cash coming in now is cash not coming in later. So the Chancellor is making himself look prudent today at the expense of his successor. And so it comes back to politics. Mr Brown has to move on. This is not a disaster in national economic terms - we are talking perhaps of 1 per cent of tax revenues coming forward one year, maybe a bit more. But politically this is serious stuff. He has missed his revenue forecasts so often and has so little room for manoeuvre that his credibility is right on the line. When the Chancellor took office, he was told by civil servants that everything was in excellent shape - better, in fact, than he had maintained in opposition. His successor will, I suspect, receive a rather different greeting. They don't need any hardship to throw a good riot in France In our kitchen we keep a Parisian cobblestone from the student riots of 1968, picked up by my spouse, who was on the barricades. She always denies hurling it. We keep it as a constant reminder that the French do riots very well, but somehow, the economy always manages to recover with few scars. And so I suppose we should regard the latest outbursts: another example of a long-established tradition rather than some indication of a deeply troubling French malaise. But the timing is surprising as it comes when the French economy seems to be picking up and when French wages are at an all-time high. In nominal terms, they are up 3 per cent year-on-year. You would expect such unrest if living standards were stagnant, as they have been in Germany - not when they are improving. But it is not the people who are benefiting from these higher wages who are manning the barricades. It is the students who want proper jobs, not short-term contracts. They are protesting against a two-tier labour market. From a macro-economic point of view, the danger is that wage pressure from the people in regular jobs will increase inflation. This is not just a French problem. As the core European economies pick up, wage pressures will rise. It may appear strange that core Europe is suffering from wage inflation when unemployment is around 9 per cent, but this insider/outsider problem is what the students are protesting about. So what will happen? My guess is that the French government's proposals to reduce the protection for temporary employment will be withdrawn or at least watered down. They would only be a patch on fundamentally flawed labour laws and really not worth fighting over. So the French will muddle through with efficient large companies, a good small business network but too few jobs to go around. We await a reaction akin to that of Charles de Gaulle, who faced down the '68 rioters with the memorably vulgar expression that he would accept protest but not a chie en lit. The English equivalent is to foul one's nest, but like so many things, it works better in French. © 2006 Independent News and Media Limited /////
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Duncan	26-Mar-06, 10:12 AM (GMT)
2. "The advantage of technical analysis is gaining the ability to focus on price action and see these changes in a timely fashion to stay with the markets. But most importantly, is to learn to differentiate between a signal and an analysis"
JAPAN ASIA INVESTMENTS 1001 BOUL. DE MAISONNEUVE O., BUREAU 950, MONTREAL, CANADA H3A 3C8 TEL: (514) 939-2221 FAX: (309) 417-0942 e-mail: sidklein@sidklein.com www.sidklein.com HOW NOW DOW? March 27, 2006 Donald Dross Sid Klein has been writing for a very long time that wealth, dominance and power have been and are migrating from West to East, as part of a massive cycle shift - bravely toward a truly new world. Through this process, he has argued, gold would end up in the hands of Easterners, while Western currencies would survive for the time being on the basis of their symbiotic relationship with the world's reserve currency-the US Dollar. As a result, gold finally broke out against all currencies in 2005, within a massive secular bull market. The March 5, 2006 SKC report played along with the bullish fantasy of printing money that could support the Dow, since it is the same phenomenon (stimulus) that has caused the breakout in gold. Accordingly, Sid suggested that we look at the Dow average as priced in gold. In that report, he presented a catastrophic Dow chart (denominated in gold) that would put today's Dow average around 6500 (if still denominated in Dollars)! Since I do not dispute Sid Klein's compelling logic, I have scratched my head wondering why the Dow has not plunged to its normalized value of 6500. My best guess is contained in this essay. But the reason I give is based on ephemera, not logic. It is the kind of ephemera that can vanish the moment you turn your back to go into the kitchen to get a cup of coffee. To Whom Are American Equities Attractive? The New York stock market these days seems to floating like a hot-air balloon that has found thermodynamic equilibrium. Any day, the chartists tell us, it will go into free fall. But that day keeps getting postponed. The market does not seem to have a care in the world. No news is good news, good news is bad news, bad news is not news. Not only do the chartists tell us that the market will soon plunge like a basketful of balloonists, but fundamentalist observers are also looking skyward in grave apprehension. They tell us that equities are currently overpriced from a historical viewpoint. They point out that the future projected earnings stream runs the gamut from Discouraging to Dismal. The present dividend return is minuscule. Why should anyone want to buy these things? And yet, somebody must be buying them, or else gravity would have kicked in. If neither technical nor fundamental analysis can help us, perhaps we should heed Sid Klein's advice and look at macro money flows. Follow the big bucks. Macro-analysis, by its nature, is inherently imprecise. It will not tell you what the market will do tomorrow or next week. But it does seem to govern our puny earth-bound movements over the longer term, like tectonic shifts that move continents in barely perceptible increments. So let's start with a big number: the trade deficit of the United States. It currently stands at $805 billion. This means that Uncle Sam has exchanged lots of green pieces of cheaply engraved paper for clothes, sneakers, television sets, computers, automobiles, food, and just about everything you can find in a Wal-Mart. Pretty fiendishly clever of the Old Man! If the American consumer wants more stuff, he instructs the Fed to print more greenbacks to purchase it. He is running the world's best con game because he plays it out in the open. There is no con that beats transparency. The countries that sell us goods in exchange for our paper are dupes by their own volition. Let's continue following the money. We have the $805 billion in foreign hands. What do they do with it? If nation L tries to convert it into its own Leeks, the Leek would rise so much that it would choke off L's foreign trade by making L's products prohibitively expensive. Most foreign currencies, like L's, are thus held hostage to the US dollar. The Swiss Franc is an exception because Switzerland does not raise the majority of its money from selling goods abroad. This is a major reason why our view at SKC continues to be to recommend that investors keep 25% of their net assets in Swiss Francs. Another alternative for L is to use its stash of US dollars to buy oil from an oil producer like Saudi Arabia. This is a reasonable alternative, but it then leaves Saudi Arabia with an excess of dollars, so our money trail has not ended but rather has taken a brief Saudi Arabian detour. An excellent alternative is for L to use its dollars to buy gold and then horde the gold in its own vaults. Until very recently, central bankers have been selling gold, not buying it. But maybe they are now waking each other up. More and more of them are deciding to add to their gold reserves. Although they are proceeding with a caution that under the circumstances seems excessive, the practice is bound to catch on-with spectacular consequences for the future price of gold. At the present time, most of the $805 billion dollars in foreign hands has, at least until last year, been converted into US treasury bonds, primarily the ten-year bonds. This has helped provoke the infamous inversion between the interest rates on the ten-years compared to the two-years. But as more and more foreign holders realize that the interest they earn on US treasuries falls below the real rate of US inflation, they see little point in buying those bonds. Last year, the big creditor nations, including China, cut down drastically in converting their US dollars to US bonds. China and Japan still buy Ginnie Mae mortgages, which offer a considerably higher interest, in the perhaps mistaken belief that the US Fed will not allow Ginnie Mae to go bankrupt. Is Uncle Sam Selling Out His Industrial Wealth? Let's pick up the trail of the $805 billion. We have noticed some of it going into oil, some into gold, some into mortgages on private property in the US, and some of it (just out of force of habit) into US treasuries. But the bulk of it has not yet been accounted for. It will not go into the overpriced US real estate market. After the Sony experience, it won't go into buying Hollywood movie studios. Where will it go? Into US equities. Right? In order to see why, we must look at the dollar not the way we normally look at it, but the way a foreign government or central bank looks at it. The foreign holder, for the reasons above given, really doesn't have much use for the dollar. Let's say, to oversimplify matters, that the foreign holder looks at a dollar as if it's worth 70 cents (in US currency). He may do so, to the extent that the foreign entity seeks board influence and/or eventual control. That point of view makes US equities very attractive to the foreign holder of dollars at current nominal prices. Country L is willing to pay, out of the stash of dollars it is holding, 1.43 times as many dollars for Google or Southern Pacific Railway or Pfizer or even General Motors, than an American is willing to pay for those stocks. For example, if Google is selling for $350, to an official of state L who can pay in the US dollars it holds, it is as if Google is selling at $245 per share. Or in any given average stock on the Dow, what to American investors is a P/E of 20 looks to a foreign government like a P/E of 14. Thus, to the foreigner, the US stock market looks like a bargain, more so because he views his ownership as providing an economic asset that may lead to greater trade or business opportunities. Let's pull a few numbers out of the air. Suppose the Dow were at 7,000. Then it would probably be reasonably priced to an American investor. But at 11,000, where it is now, it is only reasonably priced to a foreign government which has to park its dollars somewhere. If all foreign investors suddenly were to agree to a six-month moratorium on buying US stocks, the Dow would probably collapse to 7,000. It can also plunge, if there were an extraneous event that makes every foreign government skittish at the same time. But, you might object, if American stocks look cheaper to a foreign holder of US dollars, then the same would be true of American bonds. Since bonds provide a higher rate of return than stocks, why wouldn't American bonds look even cheaper to foreign governments? Indeed, that's exactly how foreign governments have been seeing things. US bonds have been more attractive to them than US equities. But then a funny realization set in: although bonds provided a high rate of return in interest, that interest was paid in US dollars which would then simply be turned over into more bonds. Thus, by holding bonds, you get more bonds. By holding more bonds, you get even more bonds than that. You become a bigger and bigger holder of US bonds. But all during this time the Fed is inflating the currency. Thus you may be holding more bonds, but their buying power might be declining. Eventually you realize that buying bonds is like running on a treadmill: you run as hard as you can but you haven't moved ahead. The story is entirely different if nation L buys stocks instead of bonds. Stocks represent equity interests in corporations, whereas bonds only represent debt interests. If L buys enough shares in General Motors, L can wind up owning General Motors. But no matter how many US Treasury bonds L buys, L will never end up owning even a tiny fraction of the United States. Instead, if squeezed, the US can pay L back by printing even more money. When we look at recent corporate transactions outside the stock exchange, we find that foreign governments are indeed willing to pay a lot more for American equities than their market price. This fact confirms the present thesis that American equities are more attractive to foreign holders of US dollars than they are to American investors. For example, in June 2005, China offered to pay a premium of two billion dollars for the American oil giant UNOCAL. But Congressional hostility to the deal was so immediate and strong that UNOCAL instead took the US Chevron offer at two billion dollars lower than the Chinese offer. In February 2006, the United Arab Emirates bought a British company whose assets included contracts to manage six major American ports. Again the howls from Congress reverberated through the country, with the result that the UAR backed off the deal. If, instead of buying US bonds for the past three decades, Japan and China had used their dollar surplus to buy US equities, they might have accomplished by stealth what they now seek to accomplish in sporadic and controversial purchases. If, for example, UNOCAL were by now 55% owned by China through its purchases on the New York Stock Exchange for the past couple of decades, then China could have bought the remaining 45% of the stock by floating a tender offer to the remaining shareholders. This might raise some Congressional eyebrows, but it would be difficult for Congress to conceive of legislation that would bar a majority shareholder from making a tender offer for the rest of a company's shares. To be sure, an objection to this line of reasoning could be made that in the long run the stock market will discount the long-term future of the equity in a manner that would result in the same price no matter who the purchaser. In that case, why are foreign governments different from individual investors? The answer was provided by Ludwig von Mises long ago. The value of money varies according to the time perspective of the holder. A person who desperately needs cash might feel the need to go to a loan shark and pay exorbitant interest for it. His short-term perspective requires him to place an extremely high value on money. At the opposite extreme, nations outlast us all. Their time perspective is measured in centuries. Thus, for this reason as well, the foreign nation that uses US dollars to purchase US equities is willing to pay more dollars for it than the individual investor. Empirical support for the present thesis is the fact that over the past twelve months, when foreign countries have been shifting their dollar surpluses from bonds to stocks, we haven't experienced a single day when the Dow has gone up or down more than 1%. In fact, most days it fluctuates less than one-tenth of 1%. This kind of sideways movement is evidence of massive unhurried accumulation. For instance, nation L every year runs a huge dollar surplus in its trade with the US. It decides to purchase a basket of 100 leading American equities. Through a US broker, it places bids across the board on all these stocks. It never "reaches" for the asked price, but is content to wait until its bid prices are hit. If one of the stocks it wants happens to shoot upward, L's broker will back off rather than chasing it with increasing bids. If the stock were given a couple of months to settle down, maybe it would come back to its original price. If not, then the foreigner could increase the bid to the new level that the stock has achieved. This kind of steady buying will make it increasingly hard for hedge funds to earn a living. Hedge funds thrive on volatility. But the slow and steady accumulation of US stocks by foreign countries places a "floor" under the stock market. And, when particular stocks spurt up, the foreign buyer backs off. Thus, rallies quickly lose their momentum. An artificial "ceiling" has been constructed over the stock market, simply by dampening bull-market enthusiasm. As a result, we would remain for weeks and months, where even a change of a half per-cent in the Dow could make the headlines. So, at last we've come to the end of the trail. The money Uncle Sam causes the Fed to print in payment for imported goods finds its way, through a winding route, into the US stock market. What if this process continues without stopping? Then all American corporations will eventually be majority-owned by foreign banks and governments. In effect, what the Fed is doing is keeping the American economy pumped up by the stealth sales of ownership interests in American corporations to foreign countries. It's a brave new world. Until reality sets in. *Donald Dross is an associate of Japan Asia Investments; articles also appear under Sid Klein. This letter has been offered into the public domain and may be freely copied or quoted. DISCLAIMER: This market letter is intended to assist in the dissemination of information to private subscribers. The information contained herein represents Messrs. Dross's and Klein's best efforts in good faith to advance knowledge to SKC clientele, but there can be no implied guarantee as to its accuracy or completeness. The information is given as of the date appearing on this market letter, and Messrs. Dross and Klein assume no obligation to update the information or advise on further developments relating to the information provided herein. No solicitation to buy or sell securities is intended, and none should be inferred. Investments are inherently risky, but investment risk itself is a function of individual preferences. Thus any opinions, recommendations, or judgments expressed in this market letter are of necessity abstract and general. They must be modified, accepted, or rejected by individual subscriber/investors whose risk averseness cannot be known to either Mr. Dross or Mr. Klein ///// http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/chan032506.html Markets are dynamic and subject to constant change. The advantage of technical analysis is gaining the ability to focus on price action and see these changes in a timely fashion to stay with the markets. But most importantly, is to learn to differentiate between a signal and an analysis. We trade our signals, and not our analysis; always. Being in the market is about making profits, and not so much about being right or wrong. ///// http://www.safehaven.com/article-4849.htm Bull market breakout? Hardly! No, this is more like a "Bull Trap" and the combination of the Dow theory Phasing with poor internals supports this notion. Just as the recent reconfirmation of the Secondary Trend suggests, this is a continuation of the rally separating Phase I from Phase II of the Dow theory secular bear market that began in 2000. This advance has been unprecedented given the technical backdrop in which it has occurred. No doubt about that! Also, as of this writing the Secondary Trend remains positive. No doubt about that either! But, there is a change in the wind; however, one thing that hasn't changed is the meaning and end result of this breadth data. It takes buying for an advance to continue and the buying is shrinking as can be seen by this breadth indicator. Furthermore, it's shrinking into the rally separating Phase I from Phase II of the ongoing bear market that everyone seems to discount. Well, no amount of liquidity can fix the shrinking breadth data and this should be obvious as we all know that the liquidity pump has been in high gear, yet breadth has been contracting for over 2 years. Now we have a "breakout" and it shrinks even further! Yes, this entire 2004 to present act of levitation is a direct result of liquidity. At some point, the lack of breadth will override the liquidity factor and that's when gravity will override the levitation act. That's when the financial mess that has been extended and made even worse by this excess liquidity will hit the fan. That's when "control" is lost and Phase II begins. Until such time, this levitation act and Secondary Reaction continues, but on increasingly thin ice. ///// http://www.safehaven.com/article-4851.htm ///// http://www.safehaven.com/article-4850.htm ///// http://www.safehaven.com/article-4852.htm //// http://www.safehaven.com/article-4853.htm ///// http://be-a-fashionista.co.uk/ ////
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Duncan	26-Mar-06, 10:55 AM (GMT)
3. "IF you want something badly enough, you'll find a way to get it. - Discipline your emotions, and make them your slaves"
The Thrifty Millionaire From Lap to Lap, Via Internet and Airline Tony Cenicola/The New York Times Reilly, the Irish terrier. The American Kennel Club says the breed earns the "daredevil" label. E-Mail This Printer-Friendly Reprints Save Article By TRACIE ROZHON Published: March 26, 2006 IF you want something badly enough, you'll find a way to get it. Even a pedigreed dog. We bought Reilly, our Irish terrier puppy, over the Internet. She was shipped in by Northwest Airlines in a tiny plastic carrier, arriving in upstate New York on a bitterly cold night in January, after a 12-hour trip from North Dakota. That's the bad stuff. Here are the good things: 1) She flew in a heated compartment, the airline assured us. 2) She arrived just as feisty as she had left, or so we imagined. 3) She came not from a "puppy mill" but from a loving family with whom we exchanged countless e-mail messages and photographs before we took the plunge. Although we weren't trying to be cheap — honest — we paid only $200 for her, and another $200 for her plane trip. Earlier, when we tried to buy an Irish terrier, a fairly rare type of dog, from a breeder closer to home, we were told that it had none, and that even if it did, the cost would be $1,200 to $1,800. But let me repeat: we weren't trying to be cheap. It just turned out that way. Desperation had set in because an Irish terrier was the only dog my husband would have. After years of seeking agreement on yellow Labs, chocolate Labs, wire-haired and Welsh terriers, I had to give in if I wanted a dog. He had never actually owned an Irish terrier before; he just liked the way they looked, and he laughed off warnings of how difficult they were to train. ("Can be quite a handful," said www.dogbreedinfo.com. "They can be difficult to housebreak.") We both liked the American Kennel Club's description of an Irish terrier's temperament: "It is of the utmost importance that the Irish terrier show fire and animation. There is a heedless, reckless pluck about the Irish terrier which is characteristic, and which, coupled with the headlong dash, blind to all consequences with which he rushes at his adversary, has earned for the breed the proud epithet of 'Daredevil.' " No wonder these dogs are rare. We finally found Reilly on Puppyfind.com. That was one of the sites that popped up when we entered "Irish terrier" in the Google search box. After poring through the various chat rooms for Irish terrier lovers and seeing if several of the listed kennels had puppies — they didn't seem to — we entered the breed in the "Find a Puppy" tab on Puppyfind. (Last week on the site, there were 27 Irish terrier puppies, a handful of which had been sold. But Troy, Donnie, Dolan, Shawn and Shane — twins — Male One and others were still for sale, at prices of $350 to $1,350.) The kennels that list their litters with Puppyfind make various pitches, some more elaborate than others. Shane, for example, offered by Rockledge Farm Kennels in Ava, Mo., was "sired by an Irish imported male that is by an Irish and European champion." The mother, too, is also an aristocrat, according to the lengthy blurb. No such descriptions were offered for Reilly, who in her younger days near the North Dakota border in northwestern Minnesota was known only as Female No. 1. After finding the puppy we wanted, at Crooked Creek Kennels in Climax, Minn., we started a correspondence with Trudy Hofer, who runs the business. Our first e-mail message began this way: "We are seeking an Irish terrier puppy and are struck by your photo of Female No. 1 in your current litter." Ms. Hofer wrote back: "Hello. Here are some pics took just tonight of Female No. 1." And so it began. The pictures of this auburn-haired puppy were impossible to resist: One showed the dog standing beautifully between two very large (or so it seemed) hands, with their cardinal-red nail polish gleaming. Others were close-ups of the puppy's head, with her soulful "adopt me now or you'll regret it for the rest of your lives" expression. There were also candid shots of Ms. Hofer's daughter playing tug with the puppy on the floor. In late December, all the arguments about waiting until spring had turned to slush. We wrote: "The pictures are enchanting. We wish to buy your Female No. 1!" Ms. Hofer wrote back: "Hello and Merry Christmas. I have put a collar on your puppy as she is now sold. You are getting the cutest puppy in the litter. You will be very pleased with her!" We had (foolishly) asked if she was housebroken. Ms. Hofer replied: "Crate training has started, but with a few of her siblings in the same big wire kennel in the house, sometimes they forget their business, if you know what I mean. But they are quick learners. All of these puppies appear very smart." Well, two and a half months later, we have realized that Reilly is, indeed, very smart. We also have decided that the people who wrote that Irish terriers were "heedless" and "reckless" were understating it. But in the end, it doesn't really matter. We love her madly. And Daredevil is right on the mark. E-mail: thriftymillionaire@nytimes.com. //// Nigeria Will End Asylum for Warlord E-Mail This Printer-Friendly Reprints Save Article By LYDIA POLGREEN and MARC LACEY Published: March 26, 2006 FREETOWN, Sierra Leone, March 25 — Nigeria said Saturday that it would end the asylum of the deposed Liberian dictator Charles G. Taylor and turn him over to the Liberian government for trial. Nic Bothma/European Pressphoto Agency Charles Taylor, former president of Liberia. Mr. Taylor, a warlord-turned-president, spawned a bloody cycle of civil wars that killed 300,000 people across West Africa in the 1990's. He was indicted by the United Nations-backed Special Court here in Sierra Leone in 2003 for war crimes and crimes against humanity during this country's decade-long insurgency. But the court has been unable to arrest Mr. Taylor, who left Liberia as rebels narrowed in on him in 2003. Instead, he went into exile in Nigeria, where authorities agreed in an internationally brokered deal to grant him safe haven in order to end 14 years of civil war in Liberia. "God willing, I will be back," the flamboyant Mr. Taylor said as he bid farewell to his country. Since agreeing to accept Mr. Taylor, the Nigerian government has rebuffed many attempts to put him on trial before the international court, saying it was awaiting a request from an elected Liberian government. Liberia's new president, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, raised the issue this month with President Olusegun Obasanjo of Nigeria, describing it as an important part of bringing stability to Liberia. "Liberia's peace is fragile," she said this month after announcing her extradition request. "There are many loyalists in our country to Mr. Taylor." In Sierra Leone, where a cell has sat empty awaiting Mr. Taylor's arrival, there was fear and awe of the man who let loose so much misery in a nation smaller than South Carolina and home to five million people. "We are very afraid of Charles Taylor coming here," said Jerry Nyuma Bongay, a 25-year-old student in Freetown. "But we want him to face justice. He hurt us too much." Desmond De Silva, the chief prosecutor for the Sierra Leone court, hailed the announcement. "This is a remarkable day for justice," he said. "This is very important because it is all part of the fight against impunity." In a statement on Saturday, Mr. Obasanjo said Liberia was free to take Mr. Taylor into custody. Although he is not under indictment in Liberia, United Nations peacekeepers there have been authorized by the Security Council to transfer him to Sierra Leone. The statement gave no date or details for the transfer, but Mr. Obasanjo said he had never been against surrendering Mr. Taylor to a democratically elected government in Liberia. Ms. Johnson Sirleaf was sworn in as Liberia's president in January, becoming Africa's first woman to be elected head of state. Mr. Taylor was forbidden from leaving Nigeria during his exile, but he continued to meddle in his former country's affairs from his government guest house in Calabar, on Nigeria's southern coast, using some of the millions of dollars he is accused of stealing from Liberia's coffers. Security around Mr. Taylor's villa has been lax, said Corinne Dufka, a researcher for Human Rights Watch based in Dakar, Senegal, prompting fears that Mr. Taylor may try to escape. "We are calling on Nigeria to tighten security around Taylor," Ms. Dufka said. "I think there will be a great sense of relief when Charles Taylor is actually in the custody of the special court." The court, set up in 2000, had issued an arrest warrant for Mr. Taylor on 17 counts in 2003 but Nigeria ignored it. Mr. Obasanjo had said that he would honor a request by Liberia's government to relinquish Mr. Taylor, but until this year Liberia had only transitional leaders. With the backing of Libya and other regional powers, Mr. Taylor unleashed his horrific brand of warfare across the region for the better part of two decades, dragooning young boys into combat, first with violence, then with drugs, money and sex. In Sierra Leone, he is accused of training and arming Sierra Leone's rebels in a bloody conflict left tens of thousands of people dead. Lydia Polgreen reported from Freetown, Sierra Leone, for this article, and Marc Lacey from Nairobi, Kenya. d i thought Nigeria made a deal with Taylor; that they would take him in order to stop the war in Sierra Leone; and that Taylor would have immunity from being sent back on the face of things; it looks like Nigeria has not managed to hold to the deal they signed up too well... its a Nigerian problem evidently; sticking to agreements a deals a deal; but not with Nigerians seemingly //// http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1143437003.php //// d the more cash you got; the more frugal you become why? http://www.shortorlong.com/ From: Duncan Robertson //// http://gspc.co.uk they say, flats sell here for 400-500k but on the face of things, renting is the much better deal i see, a property bust and a recession, on the horizon http://www.shortorlong.com/ From: Duncan Robertson //// http://atimes.com/ //// Nigeria OKs Handover of Liberian Warlord By MICHELLE FAUL, Associated Press Writer 1:53 AM PST, March 26, 2006 ABUJA, Nigeria -- Nigeria said Saturday it is ready to hand over Liberian warlord Charles Taylor to be the first former African head of state tried for crimes against humanity, making a reluctant move that will be a strong warning for other warmongers on the continent. Taylor is accused of starting a civil war in his homeland that brutalized tens of thousands of young boys and girls drafted as rebel fighters. He also is blamed for a savage war in neighboring Sierra Leone where rebels -- including child fighters -- terrorized victims by chopping off arms, legs, ears and lips. ADVERTISEMENT An international tribunal indictment says Taylor is criminally responsible for the destruction of Liberia and Sierra Leone and for the murder, rape, maiming and mutilation of more than a half million Sierra Leoneans. An additional 2.5 million people were forced from their homes. Each of the 17 charges he faces in the indictment carries a sentence life in prison. Taylor is also accused of harboring al-Qaida suicide bombers who attacked U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998. The former Liberian leader has been in exile in the southern Nigerian city of Calabar since being forced from power under a 2003 accord that ended a rebel assault on Liberia's capital. Nigeria had resisted extraditing him, arguing he was given refuge under the internationally brokered peace deal. Many African leaders are leery of trying former presidents or dictators, apparently worrying they could be the next to be accused of human rights abuses or other crimes. Others fear a push to try toppled leaders would encourage those in power to more fiercely resist democratic change. But in a statement, Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo said he had informed Liberia's president that "the government of Liberia is free to take former President Charles Taylor into its custody." After her inauguration in January, Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf said a trial for Taylor was not a priority. But she made a formal request to Nigeria after an official visit to Washington, which is the source of aid needed to rebuild Liberia, Africa's first republic founded by freed American slaves in 1847. There was speculation Taylor would be sent directly to the U.N. war crimes tribunal in Sierra Leone rather than be taken to Liberia, where there are worries his presence could destabilize the country trying to recover from 14 years of war. Liberia's government had no immediate comment, and neither Taylor nor his spokesman could be reached for comment. Taylor reportedly warned this week that Liberia would suffer if he was extradited. After meeting with the deposed leader in Nigeria, Indian evangelist Kilari Anand Paul quoted Taylor as saying: "There is no question in my mind that there will be chaos.'" New York-based Human Rights Watch urged Nigerian officials to arrest Taylor, who escaped from a U.S. jail to become a rebel leader. "Urgent steps need to be taken to tighten security around his Calabar villa, and to take Charles Taylor into custody immediately," said the organization's Richard Dicker. In Liberia, security agents said they arrested at least two Taylor loyalists Saturday after getting reports that the former leader's supporters were engaged in "secret meetings" to ensure he does not stand trial. David M. Crane, the American prosecutor who drew up Taylor's indictment, said his extradition would send a powerful message. "Certainly African leaders, members of the good old boy network, are under notice that you cannot destroy your own citizens for your own personal gain and you don't go after women and children -- don't rape women, don't turn children into monsters," Crane said. He said a trial for Taylor would "crack the wall against impunity." Taylor allegedly started the Sierra Leone war to get his fighters access to its rich diamond fields. In Liberia, he enriched himself from diamonds, timber and rubber. "This was unique in history," Crane said. "It was criminals for their own criminal purposes using traditional methods of warfare for their own criminal gain which resulted in war crimes against humanity." Nevertheless, the indictment alleges Taylor was a pawn in a bigger plot drawn up by Moammar Gaddafi, the Libyan leader who was indicted as a co-conspirator, to take over several African nations over 10 years. It says Taylor and other African rebels were trained, armed and equipped by Libyan special forces. Taylor has denied allegations that he twice tried to assassinate President Lansana Conte of Guinea in revenge for Guinea's sponsoring the rebel group that was marching on Liberia's capital, Monrovia, when Taylor finally agreed to leave. The case is loaded with implications for African presidents, who include coup leaders and others accused of human rights violations. It could set a precedent for those living in comfortable exile as well as sitting leaders, such as those in the Sudanese government that the United States accuses of genocide in the Darfur region. * __ Associated Press writers Jonathan Paye-Layleh in Monrovia, Liberia, and Clarence Roy-Macaulay in Freetown, Sierra Leona, contributed to this report. ///// Anger kills the man who angers (The Peninsula/ by FIDELIS C ODOGBO) It was just like another day in the minds of a teenage boy and his parents. I guess they must have discussed previously, the day before, their plans for the future. The youngster is fond of erupting violently at any slight irksome remarks. On that faithful day he had a squabble with his parents. And suddenly, like a wave of the sea tossed by a fiery wind, this little teenage boy went into a fit of rage at the slightest remark of his parents. Probably assuming he has come of age, and so had no need for anyone, even his parents to dictate to him, the course of his life. Not even a chip of an advice He reached out his hand for a pistol after rummaging in one of the drawers in his father’s room. Dashed out with his temper boiling at high degree Celsius, he pointed the gun at his father and pressed the trigger. As if his mission was not yet accomplished, he turned to his mother and shot her at very close range. He killed his parents in splits of minutes because he lost control of his temper. Just few days ago, while reading one of the daily English newspapers, I was stunned when my eyes caught a glimpse of a small section captioned; “A teenage girl sentenced to 14 years imprisonment.” I mustered my attention and bent over to read. To unearth the mystery hidden behind the caption. She was attending a birthday party with her peers in the heart of London. Her close friend, 15 years old, did something that vexed her terribly in the dancing floor. I guess probably, must have lured her boyfriend to a dancing spree with her. In the bid to gain mastery of the occasion, she erupted into rage. Her temper soared high beyond her level of sanity. She brought out a knife and stabbed her friend on the chest. The knife pierced into her heart. She took to her heels as her colleagues battled to save the life of her friend. Unfortunately, she died at the spot. After stages of court sessions, the court held, and found her guilty of murder and consequently sentenced her to 14 years imprisonment. By my calculation, at the time she comes out of prison, she will be 32. Even though she still has the hope of becoming the woman of her dream at 32, 14 years of her life would be spent behind bars, where 70 per cent of her freedom is lost, which is the greatest conquest of a living soul. For a youngster of her age, I think regret is inevitable. Anger is a deadly poison if left without boundaries. I know that there are many people whose lives have been wrecked and battered as a result of uncontrolled tempers. It has ruined multitudes of youngsters with high prospect and ambition, rare ability and great education. Many a man has lost a good position, has sacrificed the opportunity of a lifetime in a fit of rage. Some throw away in the anger of a moment, perhaps, the work of years in climbing to their position. Everywhere, we see victims of uncontrolled temper tripling themselves up, losing in a few moments all they have gained in months, or maybe a lifetime. They are continually climbing and dropping backward. The teenage boy and the girl regretted their actions and had intense remorse for what they did. The young guy became an orphan, the only child of his parents. The damsel was stripped of her liberty and became a convict. They both will live the rest of their lives with a deep sore in their heart, for slaying precious lives because of anger. A notable woman, Mrs Oliphant said; “Prove to me that you can control yourself, and I will say you are an educated man. And without this, all other education is good for next to nothing.” Think of how much a violent temper takes out of one’s entire system, mentally and physically! Much more than many weeks of hard work when in a normal condition: And then, picture, if you can, the terrible aftermath, the humiliation of it all, the remorse and disappointment. The loss of self-respect, the shock to one’s finer sensibilities when one comes to himself and realises what has happened. Every living human being by nature, have the tendency of anger, which in its dormant state is not a vice, but a virtue when subjected to the forces of discipline. The ability to reign over feeling of rage and tantrums is a full manifestation of one’s moral strength and maturity. A bad temper is largely the result of false pride, selfishness and cheap vanity. And no man who is worthy of the name will continue to be governed by it. There is nothing manly or noble in the quality which lets loose the ‘dogs of war’ which in an instant may make enemies of our best friends. How fatal it is to become slave to temper. It not only ruins the disposition and cripples efficiency; it is also very humiliating and allows much hurts and stings. It makes you throw the javelin of sarcasm into the mind of an innocent person. If you are inclined to storm and rage, or if you ‘fly all to pieces’ over the least annoyance, do not waste your time regretting this weakness, and telling everybody that you can not help it. Just assume the calm, deliberate, and quiet balanced composure, which characterises your ideal person in that respect. Convince yourself that you do not fly off at a tangent at every little annoyance. No matter how annoying or exasperating things may be, or how excited or disturbed other people around you may be, decide you will not be thrown off your centre. Discipline your emotions, and make them your slaves. Don’t let the beast in you loose and run riot in your mental kingdom and does what it wills until you can get control of yourself again. Be king over your emotional kingdom and reign supreme, with discipline as your sceptre. Zopyrus, the physiognomist, said; “Socrates, (the great thinker) characteristic features showed that he was stupid, brutal, sensual and addicted to drunkenness.” Socrates upheld the analysis by saying; “By nature, I am addicted to all these vices, but they were only restrained and vanquished by the continual practice of discipline.” It is so amusing to end with this statement from Sidney N Bremer. He said; “Anger is temporary insanity” Striking! Isn’t it? ////
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Duncan	26-Mar-06, 11:11 AM (GMT)
4. "Take a break frequently and exercise (i do)"
Bomber owns flat behind Harrods The IRA chief behind the London store attack added a nearby property to his £30m portfolio Henry McDonald, Ireland editor Sunday March 26, 2006 The Observer The IRA commander who organised the 1983 bomb attack on Harrods that left six people dead now owns a flat behind the Knightsbridge department store. Thomas 'Slab' Murphy bought the apartment for a knockdown price as part of his multi-million-pound investment empire in Britain. Investigators probing his assets in Ireland and the UK found that the South Armagh farmer and smuggler bought a small apartment in Basil Street, Knightsbridge, for £80,000 in 2002. The attack on Harrods was carried out by members of Murphy's South Armagh Brigade, which spearheaded most of the major bomb attacks on Britain during the Troubles. Some of the survivors of the Harrods bomb are suing the Libyan government through courts in the United States over its role in arming and supplying the IRA. The inquiry team investigating Murphy is linking the flat to a network of properties in the Irish Republic and Manchester. The Observer can also reveal that the Assets Recovery Agency (ARA) - set up to seize the wealth and property of criminals and terrorists - took 330,000 documents from five Manchester commercial and domestic properties last October as part of its operations against the former IRA chief of staff. Following the raids, the documents were photocopied and shipped to the Criminal Assets Bureau (CAB) in Dublin - which is ARA's Irish equivalent. A senior Garda Siochana detective confirmed this weekend that the Irish police and the CAB are now working their way through the huge mountain of paperwork. ARA and CAB officers have also established that, apart from the flat in West London, Murphy owns 300 properties in northwest England. The majority are ordinary homes but a few are commercial premises in Manchester, sources said this weekend. 'There was enough paperwork from the Manchester raid to fill an office from its floor to its ceiling,' one source told The Observer He said that the flat in Basil Street is in an Edwardian block with a penthouse. 'The price was only £80,000 in 2002 because the flat came with an elderly sitting tenant who could not be moved,' he said. 'The 84-year-old doesn't have a clue who the owner is and his rent is paid for by social security. It's ironic to think that it's the UK taxpayer that's paying rent to the man whose activists caused chaos in England for decades,' the source added. Just months after Murphy purchased it, a similar apartment in the same block changed hands for twice the price. It was part of a £1.6m portfolio allegedly managed by the Craven Group. As part of a three-year investigation into IRA money-laundering, given the title of Operation Front Line, officers raided premises belonging to Manchester businessman Dermot Craven. Craven has strongly denied any involvement with Murphy. At the same time a number of offices were raided in Dundalk to discover where Murphy's property empire - worth between £30m and £45m - is hidden. Two weeks ago the operation against Murphy widened when the Police Service of Northern Ireland and Garda Siochana raided his home on the South Armagh-Louth border. Around 400 police officers backed up by troops were involved in dawn raids on 74 Larkins Road, the Murphy family farm that straddles the Irish border. But Murphy escaped the net by three minutes - his half-eaten breakfast was still on the kitchen table when police arrived. Officers recovered £600,000 in cash and cheques, two laptop computers, 10,000 litres of fuel, 30,000 smuggled cigarettes and a highly toxic chemical mix to 'wash' 7.5 million litres of fuel. On Thursday the CAB went to the Dublin High Court to have the cash and cheques frozen. ///// Trouble begins when the clocks go forward Robin McKie Sunday March 26, 2006 The Observer Expect a stock market slump tomorrow, a rise in traffic accidents throughout the week and some wild swings in mood both in yourself and your friends. No, it's not the start of the World Cup. This is what experts forecast for the week after the clocks went forward earlier this morning. Statistics show a surprising pattern in the wake of this annual 'loss' of an hour. Some of the impact is positive. For example, lower energy bills: one calculation shows that, in the US, 300,000 barrels of oil were saved every year after Daylight Saving Time was brought forward by a month. Crime also drops for a few days. However, most side-effects are unwelcome. Adult sleep patterns will take about a week to adjust and stress will be more keenly felt. Moreover, the symptoms are stronger in the spring than when the clocks go back in the autumn. The solution is to get physical, according Sam Scott, author of The Mind Gym. Take a break every hour and exercise, even if only by walking round the block. In addition, plan projects that raise your spirits - and be tolerant with those in a bad mood.
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Duncan	26-Mar-06, 12:28 PM (GMT)
5. "The worst of times, like the best, are always passing away' and that 'Mutability is our tragedy, but it's also our hope"
With a run of bets like these, you have to take it philosophically The finishing post is in sight. Greg Gordon updates us on a year of subscription gambling Sunday March 26, 2006 The Observer From his medieval vantage point, it's unlikely that Rome-born philosopher Boethius could have envisaged a world of internet betting exchanges, tipping lines and everyday citizens supplementing their investment portfolios with the paid-for selections of professional gamblers. Nevertheless, I've had cause to ponder his wise words during the interminable twists and turns of my year-long investigation into the subscription betting services of Steve Lewis Hamilton, Sport 4 Profit and The Mathematician. Boethius pithily observed that: 'The worst of times, like the best, are always passing away' and that 'Mutability is our tragedy, but it's also our hope', and these sentiments have certainly chimed with me during 10 rollercoaster months of betting on horses and sports. In that time I've seen my initial pot of £200 (invested in the tipsters' selections and my own football bets) swell to an impressive £1,210.06, with the aid of a little initiative and the pro-active pursuit of good betting value. I've also seen the kind of unequivocal results that belie the homespun philosophy that 'there's just no way to beat the bookies'. Since the turn of year, it's been very much a tale of dramatic peaks and troughs, with losing blips being followed by spectacular peaks. As my confidence wavered, with a rash of more than 20 losers across the services in February, I certainly did not envisage that within the next month I'd be recording my highest personal profits so far but, as I've learnt already, betting at these value prices, it only takes a couple of winners to erase a long losing run. Steve Lewis Hamilton highlights such as Royal Emperor 12/1, Dorney's Well 16/1 and Silver Sedge 7/1 have helped to all but double my pot since mid-December, giving him 10-month profits of £11,522.05. As he did in summer, The Mathematician has also hit a purple patch, miraculously transforming his fortunes with a cluster of high-priced winners - including Overstrand 8/1, Billyandi 8/1 and Hedgehunter 22/1 each way - that have grown his meagre December bottom line of £105 to an impressive £5,466.25. While spring has sprung early for the racing experts, Sport 4 Profit's Trevor Oakland, however, will be clutching Boethius' words to his bosom and hoping for a similar transformation come May. Oakland's rugby service is currently £932.61 up after an attritional winter period of handicap backing. With winning returns from 28/1 David Toms in Hawaii among others, Oakland's under par golf service is exhibiting the green shoots of recovery. However, he's still recording a deficit of £2,010.83 - which is £11 worse than my former bar boss, Eamonn The Amateur McCloskey, who's been shadowing the tipsters' efforts picking horses from his morning paper. With two months to go, both Oakland and McCloskey will be hoping that the consolations of philosophy will be augmented with a welcome change of fortune. · For more information, contact greg@ProGambler.co.uk ///// Comment Sportsman jumps, but can it last the course? Peter Preston Sunday March 26, 2006 The Observer The Sportsman, the first new quasi-national daily for two decades, is a riveting answer to a question we haven't quite formulated yet. Is there a future for smudgy words on newsprint distributed around Britain by heavy lorries in a pother of diesel fumes? Who (as David Cameron might add) needs analogue anachronisms in a digital media age? Plonk your pound on the counter and find out fast. They make an unlikely founding pair, Charlie Methven and Jeremy Deedes, twin refugees from Telegraph Towers. Charlie used to be father of the union chapel and godfather of the awkward squad when Jeremy, son of Bill, was MD. But then Methven had the bright idea of putting out a specialist tabloid to challenge the Racing Post and riding to wider glory atop Britain's online betting boom. So this Sportsman is for football flutterers and poker players, too; this Sportsman goes to the dogs and the golf course as well as the snooker table. Now place your bets on success or disaster. The amount of advertising from friendly bookies throughout week one clearly chalks up good odds in the success column. There's revenue here. Find a steady sale (of 40,000 a day, they say, rather too buoyantly) and the Sportsman could be in profit a damned sight faster than our last-but-one newest daily, the Indie, still losing £10 million and bailing. But pause before vaulting too far: the future of news on paper and the triumph of this particular version are by no means synonymous. What the Sportsman does - and will surely do rather more convincingly when it gets its full-monty website going in May - is close the digital gap. You need the screens and the mobile phones, of course, because that's where so much of the betting action is. But you also need browsing and perusing time, the ability to flit through and sift huge amounts of information that may or may not be relevant; and, practically, that means turning 88 pages over a cup of coffee or a beer. The Sportsman rides the train with you, wanders across to the Tote window, fills in half-hours at the pub, even stays in bed. It is an infinitely flexible purveyor of facts, valued or discarded, as well as opinion. It packs a lot in - and you can't, to be frank, find any modern website which works so efficiently in so many environments. The newsprint isn't an anachronism here. It is, for the moment, the best we can do anywhere between Caxton and Bill Gates. If the Sportsman catches on, you'll need it in both shapes and forms, because they depend on each other, interlocking absolutely. There are broader themes here, of course, themes touching on every aspect of newspaper production. Too much printed information, too many forests dying in vain? The New York Times has just scrapped voluminous pages of City prices and put them online, where they are handier and more up-to-date. UK papers will surely be following that lead soon enough - just as, for the general reader, race cards could go electronic, too. Integration is the cost-effective, commonsense name of this game. But observe how, in a more specialist way, the Sportsman turns a different trick. A City investor will want to see, first off, how his shares performed yesterday: a sportsman will want to see who's running at Wincanton. Neither the impulses, nor the techniques involved, are the same. Separate horses, separate courses. Does this mean that Deedes and Methven are on to a winner? It's much too early to say - for smudgy, essentially human reasons. Maybe the standard of the tips won't hack it. Maybe the 'star' columnists, from Alan Brazil to Mick Skinner, aren't starry enough, more the kind of ubiquitous panellists who turn up yacking in dodgy blazers after Sky TV matches. Maybe the relentless concentration on betting odds is so formulaic that it offers only irritation. (Who wants to know that Leeds 'drifted to 17-10 to win promotion last night' before you're told Crystal Palace won 1-0)? Maybe some sports, like cricket in India, can't work on overnight newsprint because the clock simply destroys them. ('It will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow' in India's second innings, said the spreadbetting analysis on Wednesday morning, when anyone with a radio handy knew the game was over.) But behind so many niggling doubts lurks one big one. Sports-only newspapers prosper across Europe because general-interest dailies on the continent give sport vestigial attention. If you want to find out what happened yesterday at Roland Garros, buy L'Equipe and forget Le Figaro. British papers, by contrast, have never allowed that gap in the market to grow. They already publish weekend tabloids that cover every football fixture worth putting on a coat for. No area of newspaper existence - because it's where young male readers cluster most profusely - has seen greater investment through the past 10 years. Is there, in fact, a gap left to fill? Won't we see a sudden explosion in punter-friendly pagination designed to kill off the newcomer at the first fence? That, along with price squeezing, will surely be Fleet Street's standard response if the Sportsman shows signs of progress. (The Sun is already taking double page ads touting its 35p wares.) Yet there's a deeper ditch it must jump. Readers - as opposed to sports editors - aren't interested in 'sport' as a concept; they're interested in football or cricket or badminton or poker. They pick and choose; they do not devour whole. Perhaps a big match football report from last night's TV will attract 30 per cent of all readers - but yesterday's badminton will barely register 2 per cent. It's an obvious point, but it also means that many, many sports pages through any week's publication are wasted on people who are not specifically interested. They want snooker not soccer, say, or darts not rugby league. If betting man is the same as reading man, the Sportsman may struggle to give its readers enough of what they want in enough fine detail - even at 88 pages or beyond. But we'll see soon enough. Full marks on the future, I think: just bite your pencil when it comes to the human nature bit. ///// http://progambler.co.uk/
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Duncan	26-Mar-06, 12:49 PM (GMT)
6. "wot is real deal"
d work on the real deal and know how you are going to get paid dont gamble //// Reuters IKEA billionaire founder proud to be frugal at 80 Sunday March 26, 6:15 am ET By Stephanie Nebehay GENEVA (Reuters) - IKEA founder Ingvar Kamprad, ranked 4th richest man in the world, drives a 15-year-old car and always flies economy class, in part to inspire his 90,000 employees worldwide to see the virtue of frugality. ADVERTISEMENT The billionaire Swede, who turns 80 on March 30, explained his legendary habits during a rare television interview in Switzerland, his adoptive home for nearly 30 years. His fortune was recently estimated at $28 billion by Forbes magazine -- trailing only Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, U.S. investor Warren Buffett and Mexican industrialist Carlos Slim. "People say I am cheap and I don't mind if they do. But I am very proud to follow the rules of our company," Kamprad told French-language Swiss Broadcasting Corporation. Asked to confirm he drove an old Volvo, he said: "She is nearly new, just 15 years old, or something like that." Interviewer Darius Rochebin teased that Ikea employees were always told to write on both sides of the paper. "Why not? If there is such a thing as good leadership, it is to give a good example. I have to do so for all the Ikea employees," Kamprad retorted. "Everything we earn we need as a reserve. We have to still develop the IKEA group. We need many billions of Swiss francs (dollars) to take on China or Russia," he added. Ikea is the world's biggest furniture retailer, with 202 stores in 32 countries. Known for its inexpensive self-assembly furniture, the family-owned business claims its hefty catalog is the most widely read publication after the Bible. SMALL-TOWN SWEDE After flirting with neo-Nazism after World War Two -- for which he has apologized -- the small-town Swede set up shop in his garden shed, selling watches, pens and Christmas cards. "I bought seeds for the garden and had great success with it, going around to all the houses in my village. After that year I could buy myself my first bicycle," Kamprad recalled. When Sweden's Social Democrat government launched the "Million Homes Project" in the 1950s, he saw an opportunity and got into the furniture business. He stumbled upon the "flat-pack" idea in 1956 when an employee took the legs off a table to fit it into a customer's car. It saves a fortune in transport, storage and sales space. "Our idea is to serve everybody, including people with little money. We have to keep costs down," he said. His home in the Swiss village of Epalinges near Lausanne above scenic Lake Geneva is mainly decorated with Ikea furniture, apart from a few family pieces. In keeping with Swedish tradition, Kamprad said he prepares and brings glogg, or hot wine, to "good neighbors" at Christmas along with his three sons. Last week he made a donation of 500,000 swiss francs ($379,900) to the Lausanne cantonal art school, where his son studied. "I'm not afraid of turning 80 and I have lots of things to do. I don't have time for dying," Kamprad said. ($1=1.316 Swiss Franc) ///// AP Fund Manager: China Heading to Bull Market Saturday March 25, 9:29 pm ET By Jon Ogden Fund Manager Says China in Early Stage of a New Bull Market HONG KONG (AP) -- China stocks listed in Hong Kong have been soaring this year, sparking worries they are overheating. But investors are only witnessing the opening stages of a new bull market, said Yang Liu, managing director of boutique fund house Atlantis Investment Management (Hong Kong) Ltd. ADVERTISEMENT "I strongly believe that if you invest today, in two or three years' time your money will be doubled," said Liu, who manages the approximately US$250 million (euro208 million) that Atlantis invests in Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong and the mainland. "Short term it will be a bumpy road, but every dip will be a buying opportunity," Liu said in a recent interview with Dow Jones Newswires. She cites as reasons for optimism a strengthening yuan, falling interest rates, strong economic growth, a rising middle class and rapid urbanization in the world's most populous country. By the time Beijing hosts the Olympics in 2008, the benchmark MSCI China Free Index could be as high as 7,000 points, she said. Even at 7,000 points it would still be below highs of 13,691.85 points in 1993 and 10,535 points in 1997, the last time there was significant enthusiasm for China shares. Back in 1997, when investors fled the sector after deciding Chinese companies weren't going to deliver the earnings growth their high valuations implied, the MSCI China Free Index collapsed. It fell to as low as 2,000 points in mid-1998. Year to date it has gained 17.6 percent, while the H-share index, another popular benchmark of China stocks, has risen 23.1 percent, leading some market commentators to suggest investors start booking profits as valuations started looking too expensive again. Atlantis' own flagship China Fund managed by Liu was up 47.7 percent in the three months to the end of January, according to the company's data. But Liu said China stocks are only just starting to emerge from an eight-year bear market, which has continued despite China's economy growing at rates of up to 9.9 percent annually and the big strides made in improving corporate governanc