Email this topic to a friend Printer-friendly version of this topic		Previous Topic | Next Topic
Conferences Current Daily Commentary (2005) (Public)
Messages in this topic

Duncan	03-Mar-06, 03:52 PM (GMT)
"sustain"
March 03, 2006 Losing the Stimulus of Equity Extractions by Michael Pento To no one's surprise, the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve is continuing his predecessor's role of economic cheerleader. Recently, the market was comforted by Mr. Bernanke's first Congressional testimony that inflation was tame and the economy was strong. This type of perfunctory mantra, however, merely serves to gloss over the massive imbalances in today's economy. Let's examine his assertion that the economy is strong and in no danger slowing even further or even dipping back into recession. The GDP increased by just 1.6% in Q4 of 2005, a measurable slowdown from it recent rate of growth and a disappointment which has been brushed aside by the mainstream media as an aberration. Moreover, the real GDP number might have been negative if inflation was measured accurately by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Further, the economy may continue to wane as the year progresses due to higher inflation, higher interest rates, growing twin deficits, negative consumer savings rates and negative real wage growth. And let's not forget the biggest reason to worry: the housing market. According to Investor's Business Daily, during the first 9 months of 2005 home equity extraction totaled 2.6 Trillion dollars -- twice the amount of withdrawals during all of 2000! And in the last 5 years alone, the average home price has increased 51%. Given the well-documented slowdown in home price appreciation lately as well as in new and existing home sales, it is difficult to imagine an economy that can sustain robust growth without that continued stimulus and it is hard to overestimate the ramifications of this deceleration. There are so many industries on the periphery of the housing market, from real estate and mortgage brokers to the construction industry and commodities, that the layoffs already being seen in the mortgage lending industry are likely to increase throughout the housing-related sector, possibly boosting total unemployment and further lowering GDP rates. So, Ben Bernanke will most likely raise short term rates once or twice in first half of this year to prove his mettle as an inflation fighter, but many suspect that he will be forced to move from the brake to the accelerator in whiplash fashion. Indeed, in his own words and studies the new Fed Chairman has shown himself to be a deflation, not inflation, hawk. Reading his essays on the Great Depression gives clear insight to his tenet that slow economic growth must be combated with increased money supply. In his speeches he has alluded to Milton Friedman's quote about dropping money from helicopters and by now the world is well aware of his own assertion that the U.S. has a technology called the printing press to combat deflation. Well, Mr. Bernanke may need to fire up that helicopter in the second half of '06; with consumers perhaps losing their go-to stimulus of home equity extractions due to higher short-term interest rates, the economy could be headed for further slowing. Anachronistic and specious doctrines adopted by Bernanke will be proved false no matter how esteemed they are held by academia. For example, why does the Fed continue to concentrate on staid Phillips curve theories such as to what constitutes full employment? A productive workforce with low unemployment is a positive, not a negative, as it increases the amount of goods with which to absorb any excess money supply. What the Fed should be concerned with is keeping the monetary base stable and letting the free market dictate interest rates. The United States is running short of time in which to prepare for the next decade's demographic and entitlement challenges and we simply cannot afford another Fed Chairman's tenure like that of Alan Greenspan, who spoke plainly about such challenges only during his final weeks in office. If Ben Bernanke continues to target employment and GDP rates by increasing the cost of money without curbing its supply, he will add to inflationary pressures and put our economy at risk of a stagflationary cycle. And it may be his unfortunate and ironic fate to not just have studied the Great Depression, but to be fighting a meaningful economic decline early in his own tenure as Chairman of the Federal Reserve. In diversifying some of their assets into global markets in light of the concerns above, investors are increasingly turning to Canada for non-U.S. Dollar exposure. To learn more, get "Go North!" our exclusive, free report on Canadian royalty trusts. And to buy physical gold bullion for only .4%, contact us to gain our exclusive discount code on BullionVault.com. Talk Back Michael Pento Senior Market Strategist Delta Global Advisors, Inc. 866-772-1198 A 15-year industry veteran whose career began as a trader on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Michael Pento recently served as a Vice President of Investments for GunnAllen Financial. Previously, he managed individual portfolios as a Vice President for First Montauk Securities, where he focused on options management and advanced yield-enhancing strategies to increase portfolio returns. He is also a published economic theorist and an expert in the Austrian school of economic theory. Copyright © 2006 Delta Global Advisors, Inc.
Alert	Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Duncan	03-Mar-06, 04:03 PM (GMT)
1. "briefed in advance; cute"
d interesting angle AP Fortis Posts Earnings Early After Theft Friday March 3, 5:35 am ET Fortis Publishes Earnings Early After Briefcase Containing Results Was Stolen AMSTERDAM, Netherlands (AP) -- Belgian-Dutch bank Fortis NV/SA, which had planned to release its full year earnings on March 9, published an abbreviated version of the report on Friday after a briefcase containing information about the results was stolen, the company said. The company said full year net profit rose 32 percent to euro3.9 billion ($4.66 billion). The company's banking profits rose 53 percent to euro2.4 billion ($2.87 billion) and insurance profits rose 9 percent to euro1.2 billion ($1.44 billion). Quarterly and other data were not released. Shares fell 1.1 percent to euro29.29 ($35.01) in early Amsterdam trading. Fortis said the figures had not yet been reviewed by its supervisory board, but it felt compelled to release them to prevent insider trading in its shares. The company said it will release complete version of its results as planned on March 9, and said it would not comment further on Friday's statement. /////
Remove | Alert	Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Duncan	03-Mar-06, 04:29 PM (GMT)
2. "due up"
dj pins out into day 55 (in black box) mid day 34 green boxed in left its snowing more here again
Remove | Alert	Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Duncan	03-Mar-06, 06:58 PM (GMT)
3. "talk is dead cheap with no back up to support the case"
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/ Fundamentally Speaking . . . in Earnings | Economy | Federal Reserve | Inflation | Psychology/Sentiment | Real Estate On Wednesday morn, Doug Kass opined: Fundamentally Speaking The fundamental problems with the market run deep. We live in a world in which the consumer is spent-up, not pent-up. If you don't believe me, the Federal Reserve expanded on this subject last week. It is inevitable that the American consumer will cease its consumption binge of the last decade and begin to retrench and save as the one-time benefit of refinancing cash-outs slows to a trickle. A parabolic boom in housing prices in certain "hot" regions of the U.S. -- and abroad -- has stretched the relationship between household incomes to housing prices to levels never, ever seen in the last century. Spring 2006 will mark a substantive resetting of rates on adjustable-rate and teaser mortgage loans, pressing the consumer ever more. Our economy's foundation is based on an asset-appreciation dependency, compared to past cycles which relied on income and wage growth. I continue to reject the government's notion that inflation is in retreat. Inflation statistics delivered by the BLS are works of fiction, as stubbornly high energy prices, tuition, food, housing, commodities, insurance and other costs are serving to pressure the consumers' real disposable incomes. The 28-year high in corporate profit margins is unsustainable and likely to revert closer to the mean as (1) the benefits of four years of cost cutting subside, and (2) cost pressures overcome pricing power. A more hawkish Federal Reserve will raise federal funds to higher levels than the consensus expected. (Notwithstanding the results from various investor surveys) the body of investors to be overly complacent (with a high measure of bullish conceit) as fear and doubt had been driven from Wall Street. > Source: A Second Shot Across the Bow? Doug Kass Street Insight,3/1/2006 8:39 AM EST http://www.thestreet.com/i/dps/te/theedge1.html#entryId10271033 Friday, March 03, 2006 | 11:30 AM | ////// m watching the racing on tv when the trainer came on and said his horse was flying. the horse was favourite but after the interview it drifted badly. this is because usually the trainer talks on tv to talk his horse up when he is actually betting it gets beat. but this interview was different because he was saying this horse was in a class of his own and will go next to a very big race. well put a bit on it and went against the market because i thought the trainer was telling the truth. well the horse won but he absolutely demolished the field by about 30 lengths. this must be the first time i have seen a trainer speak the truth. m ///// Weekly Column - 03.03.2006 DESPERATELY SEEKING PEACE by J. R. Nyquist Guilt over America’s past sins (of racism and Eurocentrism) informs the curriculum with which we have taught our youth. Therefore, the “best and brightest” in government are now filled with feelings of guilt about American power. They are ashamed of their forefathers and tentative in their defense of the Republic. They have been indoctrinated to combat their country’s sinfulness, setting all other considerations aside. America’s new law doesn’t come from the Founding Fathers or the Bible, but from America’s critics and enemies; from those who are hostile to America’s founding ideals. Today’s generation has been raised to believe in a “political correctness” that cripples the defense and intelligence capabilities of the government. To prove the extent of the damage, one only has to turn to Paul Sperry’s book, Infiltration: How Muslim Spies and Subversives Have Penetrated Washington. Commenting on the hopelessness of America’s position, Sperry quotes terrorism expert Thor E. Ronay, president of the International Assessment and Strategy Center in Washington: “Political correctness is too broad and deep institutionally to be overridden. It arises from years of inculcation in the agencies, and more generally in the culture that we all operate in.” Consequently, the president and the FBI director will not use the words “Islamic” and “terrorist” in the same sentence. They dare not criticize Islam or suggest any restrictions on Muslim immigration to the United States. You see, Islam is “a religion of peace” and the government opposes anti-Muslim bigotry. We welcome all religions and creeds to our shores – even religions that preach destruction and death to unbelievers. And that, says Sperry, is exactly what the holy book of Islam teaches. Long before America ever existed, the Koran denounced liberalism as wickedness and tolerance as an abomination. It is ironic indeed that political correctness shields the Koran from official criticism in the United States, since the Koran is anything but politically correct. Sperry discusses ten myths about Islam, held sacred by the cult of political correctness in Washington. These are as follows: 1) Islam is a religion of peace; 2) Jihad means inner struggle against sin; 3) Terrorism does not come from Islam; 4) Allah is the same God of the Bible; 5) The Koran teaches tolerance of other religions; 6) Osama bin Laden hijacked Islam and distorts its teachings; 7) Islam is compatible with Western-style democracy; 8) Virgins promised to Islamic suicide bombers are actually raisins; 9) Poverty and oppression motivate the terrorists; 10) The Koran does not encourage self-immolation. According to Sperry, the Koran teaches the faithful to fight non-Muslims “in the cause of Allah.” In fact, the term “Jihad” signifies the believers’ obligation to wage war. Nowhere in the Koran does Jihad refer to inner struggle. “Not equal are those Believers who sit (at home) and receive no hurt, and those who strive and fight in the cause of Allah with their goods and persons.” (Surah 45.) The Koran instructs Muslims to “instill terror into the hearts of the unbelievers” and to “smite above their necks.” Also, taking unbelievers captive or slaying them is authorized. According to Sperry, Allah is not the God of Christians and Jews. Assertions of Christ’s divinity are considered blasphemous by Muslims and the concept of the Trinity is denigrated as mere polytheism. “Muslims are taught to hate Jews – as well as Christians,” writes Sperry. “Oh ye who believe!” says the Koran. “Take not the Jews and Christians for your friends.” In fact, “They are more likely to combine against you than help you.” As for bin Laden’s “hijacking” a beautiful religion, Sperry writes: “Bin Laden has not betrayed his faith. Quite the contrary, he has honored it like few other Muslims have over the past fourteen hundred years of Islam. He is driven by a purist vision of Islam, not a corrupted or perverted one. To try to minimize him as an oddball, while absolving his violent faith of all complicity, is to minimize the threat America faces. He is a deeply religious man and a mass murderer.” President Bush says that the Muslim world wants freedom and democracy. But Western-style democracy means individualism and secularism. For Muslims the Koran is their constitution. The Koran does not recognize a separation of church and state or tolerance for other faiths. According to a leading Muslim scholar, “The goal of Islam is to produce a theocracy with Allah as the ruler of society, a society with no separation between religion and state. This society would have no democracy, no free will, and no freedom of expression.” Anything opposing Allah is illicit. There is one God and Mohammed is his prophet. The Koran’s prescription is total submission to Allah. Those who fail to submit are disobedient. As such they deserve punishment. The Koran says that Muslim warriors killed in the fight against non-Muslims will be rewarded with “virgins” in paradise. Some Western scholars have alleged that these virgins, in fact, are sweet raisins. But the Koran clearly refers to “companions with beautiful, big, lustrous eyes.” President Bush and his advisors think that democracy and free markets will bring an end to the terrorist impulse. Why not embrace virgins in this world instead of detonating oneself to attain virgins in the next? The Westerner imagines that the terrorist is angry because he is poor, that he is enraged because of material inequality. Not so, says Sperry. Terrorism is not a function of the terrorists’ economic condition. “It is a function of their faith. In fact, studies show most of the suicide bombers over the past several years were educated and came from middle-class families.” But surely, the Koran doesn’t teach self-immolation and suicide. Martyrdom in the cause of Allah, however, is not mere suicide. It is not personal or selfish. Battling the unbeliever is a test of faith and fidelity. Dying in the battle against unbelief, the martyr’s sins are forgiven. As Abdullah Yusuf Ali (Muslim scholar and translator of the Koran into English) has written: “Martyrdom is the sacrifice of life in the service of Allah. Its reward is therefore even greater than that of an ordinarily good life. The martyrs sins are forgiven by the very act of martyrdom.” Suicide is killing oneself without God’s blessing. Martyrdom is sacrificing oneself while spilling the blood of infidels. According to Sperry, “Palestinian suicide bombers … do not refer to their deeds as ‘suicide’ but as ‘sacred explosions.’” What Sperry writes is dangerous to present policy, and politically incorrect. Official U.S. policy denies any link between authentic Muslim teachings and terrorism. According to America’s top leaders, Sperry’s characterization of Islam is bigotry and lies. Islam is not the inspiration of the terrorists. Islam is America’s ally in the “War on Terror.” The politicians in Washington have retreated into a curious formulation. They retreat because they are afraid. One must recall the Cold War. The teachings of Marx weren’t inherently violent or criminal. The evil Stalinists and neo-Stalinists hijacked a politically progressive faith. They hijacked the revolution of Lenin, turning it into a totalitarian enterprise. And so it is with Islam. To describe Islam or communism realistically is to commit a crime. You will not rise in the bureaucracy or in politics if you espouse the politically incorrect line. The FBI encourages Muslims to join its ranks. President Bush welcomes terror-supporters into the White House because he refuses to associate the cause of Osama bin Laden with the religion of Mohammed. America’s leadership refuses to call things by their proper names. Fiction has been set up in place of reality, and it is closely guarded. The U.S. government, says Sperry, is more worried about protecting Muslim feelings than U.S. lives. As the 9/11 hijackers were training for their “martyrdom operation,” an FBI memo flew up from Phoenix, Arizona. It said there was something suspicious about Middle Eastern men enrolled in airline flight schools. FBI headquarters shelved the memo because it would have violated racial profiling guidelines. Officially, our enemy is not Arab. Why should we find Arabs suspicious? Why should believers in Allah be subject to special attention? Since 9/11, nothing has changed. The followers of bin Laden are heartened. The doom of the American Republic is foreordained. The U.S. political system has become, in itself, a corruption of words and ideas. As such, it cannot think or talk or act realistically. With all its strength and wealth, the United States is governed by a highly organized pedantry that has utterly demolished native common sense. It afflicts the country in areas touching on conflict – ideological and religious. Since the country is no longer a nation state but a multicultural confederation of peoples and faiths under the banner of “anything goes,” disintegration and dismemberment follows. © 2006 Jeffrey R. Nyquist Email l Website l FSO Archives /////// http://www.safehaven.com/article-4704.htm /////// d the obnoxious, good for nothing, ego-tripping trader a, mailed me but he stressed, i should not post what he mailed weird again the purpose of his obnoxious mail, was to tell me, he had another great day he has the capacity and a strong inclination and desire, to destabilise people he pontificates, he does well at day trading; cant say how tho his plea, is as stupid as a prosecutor saying, the accused is guilty, however being unable to say why, with indicative back up of a rationale acceptable kind a sheriff would throw such a charge out of court trader a says for the umpteenth time, that we will not be hearing again, from him but then he said something like that last week; then this week we get a mail from him why cant people, do what they say why is it so hard for people to do, what they say they will do we do not need nor want, the likes of a around he has been a complete leech and obnoxious into the bargain and unappreciative of the help he has received at no cost you help a certain sort of people; then they come and kick you in the head thats gratitude for you this leech a is constantly perusing this site for clues as to how to get better and has been doing such for years he has failed to see the positives he has taken from his time on this site he fronts out and does not recognise the positive contribution this site has made meanwhile he has the audacity to claim stupidly that this site has not helped him a total negative component from beginning to end that is what those people are typical a can explain 0 absolutely nothing i have no time for people, who makes claims without an explanation there claims of success, have to be discounted i have no time for the likes of a none whatsoever i have absolutely no time for people who make claims without full disclosure and explanation this nonsense of his is nothing more than that; nonsense he has dug a huge hole; that is the key issue we are absolutely sure about ///// March 03, 2006 Be Bullish On China/India Because of Their Supply, Not Demand by Paul Kasriel In the March 1 FT, Todd Thompson argues that one reason to be optimistic about the economic growth prospects for China and India is the potential demand for goods and services emanating from these two populous regions ("Asia's dance of the twin elephants," http://news.ft.com/cms/s/597191ce-a8c8-11da-aeeb-0000779e2340.html). The principal sources of demand are increased consumption of a rising middle class and infrastructure needs. Mr. Thompson was either dozing during the first Econ 101 lecture or did not take the course. As anyone who was awake during that lecture knows, supply is the economic challenge, not demand. Anyone who has children or is acquainted with U.S. baby boomers knows that the demand for goods and services is unlimited. It is the supply of those goods and services that is scarce. India has "needed" an improved infrastructure for decades. And it has a teeming mass of citizens that "need" more food, clothing and shelter. So, India's economic challenge has not been demand. Rather, India's economic challenge has been to produce the quantity of goods and services to accommodate this demand either directly or through trade. The reason to be bullish on the Chinese and Indian economies today is that through deregulation the inherent talents of their populations have been allowed and encouraged to be employed in productive ways. The reason to be bullish on the Chinese and Indian economies is because of their potential to supply more goods and services, not their potential to demand more. Talk Back Paul L. Kasriel, Director of Economic Research The Northern Trust Company Economic Research Department Positive Economic Commentary "The economics of what is, rather than what you might like it to be." 50 South LaSalle Street, Chicago, Illinois 60675 The information herein is based on sources which The Northern Trust Company believes to be reliable, but we cannot warrant its accuracy or completeness. Such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Copyright © 2005-2006 The Northern Trust Company /////// March 04, 2006 Hi-Ho Silver; Gold and Mining Shares to Follow by Peter Schiff So far, 2006 has been a very volatile year for gold stocks. After soaring 20% in January, the XAU declined by 15% in February, despite the fact that gold only declined 1% during the month. Many analysts have interpreted this "weakness" as being bearish for the metal itself. No doubt if gold makes a new high, unconfirmed by the XAU, those same analysts will claim the divergence signifies yet another top. However, those of us who have been long mining shares for the entire move realize that this leg up has been characterized by the metal leading the shares. While it is widely believed that mining shares are a leading indicator for the metal, these shares are more commonly owned by speculators than is the physical metal. Thus, the restraint shown by speculators reflects a healthy degree of skepticism with respect to gold prices. As a result, the market climbs a classic "wall of worry" as speculators, nervous about gold prices falling, are reluctant to bid mining shares too high. Then, the subsequent divergence is seen as further evidence of a potential top in the gold market, making the "wall of worry" that much more difficult to climb. This current market in gold reminds me of the course taken by oil and oil shares during the three year period between June of 2001 and June of 2004. During that time, despite oil prices having doubled, the Philadelphia Oil Services Index (OSX) barely budged. The high degree of skepticism that existed regarding the legitimacy of oil's new bull market was able to keep share prices in check. (In fact, the wide-spread belief that oil prices were about to collapse allowed the Government and Wall Street to convince a gullible public to exclude energy prices from the CPI.) It wasn't until skeptics accepted that higher oil prices were permanent that oil stock prices finally began to rise. Similarly, it took a while for the oil company executives themselves to come to the same conclusion, resulting in an increased willingness to plow higher profits into increased exploration and development. The result was increased earnings in the oil services sector and higher share prices. In retrospect, the sluggish move in oil stocks proved to be a false indicator. Rather, the divergence merely demonstrated just how wrong stock investors had been with respect to their forecasts on commodity prices. I am convinced that the same will hold true with respect to gold. The recent weakness in the shares despite the underlying strength in the metals themselves merely indicates just how few investors actually understand the dynamics driving the gold market or just how high gold prices are likely to rise. Rather than looking to what mining share speculators think might happen to metals prices in the future, look at what is actually happening today. With gold prices once again approaching $570 and silver prices above $10 per ounce for the first time in twenty-two years, it is clear that real money is moving into precious metals, and that it will be there for the duration. With central bankers around the world printing a lot faster than producers are mining, the flows will only intensify. Got gold? In case you do not, visit www.goldyoucanfold.com to discover the best way to buy it. While you're at it, download my free research report on protecting your wealth through foreign equities available at www.researchreportone.com and subscribe to my free, on-line investment newsletter at http://www.europac.net/newsletter/newsletter.asp Talk Back Peter Schiff C.E.O. and Chief Global Strategist Euro Pacific Capital, Inc. Mr. Schiff is one of the few non-biased investment advisors (not committed solely to the short side of the market) to have correctly called the current bear market before it began and to have positioned his clients accordingly. As a result of his accurate forecasts on the U.S. stock market, commodities, gold and the dollar, he is becoming increasingly more renowned. He has been quoted in many of the nations leading newspapers, including The Wall Street Journal, Barron's, Investor's Business Daily, The Financial Times, The New York Times, The Los Angeles Times, The Washington Post, The Chicago Tribune, The Dallas Morning News, The Miami Herald, The San Francisco Chronicle, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, The Arizona Republic, The Philadelphia Inquirer, and the Christian Science Monitor, and has appeared on CNBC, CNNfn., and Bloomberg. In addition, his views are frequently quoted locally in the Orange County Register. Mr. Schiff began his investment career as a financial consultant with Shearson Lehman Brothers, after having earned a degree in finance and accounting from U.C. Berkley in 1987. A financial professional for seventeen years he joined Euro Pacific in 1996 and has served as its President since January 2000. An expert on money, economic theory, and international investing, he is a highly recommended broker by many of the nation's financial newsletters and advisory services. Copyright © 2005-2006 Euro Pacific Capital, Inc. /////// http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/ Why the Short Term Upside Bias? in Investing | Technical Analysis | Trading I mentioned yesterday why I was short term bullish. Nothing has changed long term, as the macroeconomic analysis continues to suggest that an eventual slowing of the economy is more than likely. Housing sales are softening, the yield curve is inverted, and the consumer is slowly tiring. Inflation, at both the retail and wholesale level -- core and non-core alike, -- is still rearing its ugly head. Resolving the dispute is a relatively simple matter of carefully considering timelines and expectations. Technicians tend to respond to shorter term market moves (like this week’s!), while Economists ply their trade over much longer time frames. I find that combining these two dissimilar disciplines allows me to develop a view towards both the immediate and distant futures. Why the Short Term is Bullish Despite the up/down action this week, the Technicals favor an upside bias over the next month or so. There are numerous reasons for this. Most of the major indices -- the Russell 2000, DJIA, the Dow Transports, the NYSE, The S&P400 midcaps -- are above their upwards sloping 50 and 200 day moving averages. The notable omission is the NDX, which remains just below its downward sloping 50 day. This is the most basic of trend indications. We also see a continually expanding margin debt -- which is a net positive for equities short term. When this measure gets to extremes, it’s a warning sign. In March 2000, for example, the margin debit actually exceeded the Free and other credit balances, $21.4 billion to $17.4B. That told you that individual investors were rather extended. As of the end of 2005, the positive credit balances were nearly $55B, while the margin debt was $22.4, so that ratio is not at an extreme. Studies have shown that as margin debt expands, it helps to fuel bull markets. Once the market turns south, however, it rapidly dries up, adding to the downside momentum. This remains a bullish factor, at least for now. Sentiment is also on the side of the Bulls. Ignore the anecdotal evidence and stick with the actual data. Nearly 30% of Market advisers now read Bearish, and that tends to be the level where in bull markets, we get rallies (it’s different in confirmed cyclical bears). Further, noted technician Stan Weinstein observed this week that Public short selling is at a very high 8.3%, while NYSE Member Short Selling measures “an unbelievably low at a reading of 40.3% (which is the lowest reading since mid-September 2001, which was registered in the immediately after the 9/11 tragedy).” That combination of the public shorting while the smart money chooses not to have historically led to market advances. And, we are still in the seasonally best period for equities. Long Term: Watch the Signals So despite the negative economic future, with all these positives and the Indices near new highs, why have any concerns beyond the near term? The answer lies between the long and short term. Over an intermediate term, there are numerous technical warning signs. I use these signals to help alert me to a possible change in trend or character of the markets. Investors ignore these at their own peril. As mentioned in the Paul Desmond interview, the advances have become increasingly narrow. An increasingly narrow advance, with less issues participating in the gains, and a small number of 52 week high list – despite the indices being at or near multi year highs – all suggest a Bull market that is in the process of tiring. Note that the most active NYSE issues have a negative bias; I prefer to see that measure be moving smartly ahead on rallies. This implies a major sector rotation, and not a new rush of money into equities. Then there’s the volume issue. Of the major ETFs, only Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) managed to show a gain in volume from Tuesday’s sell off to Wednesday’s snapback rally. Even the QQQQs were softer on Wednesday. The broader Nasdaq Comp and the NDX did show volume gains, while the NYSE, S&P and Dow did not. Low volume on up days vs. heavier volume on down days is also a signal that a high degree of caution is warranted for equity investors. Friday, March 03, 2006 | 01:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) Fundamentally Speaking . . . in Earnings | Economy | Federal Reserve | Inflation | Psychology/Sentiment | Real Estate On Wednesday morn, Doug Kass opined: Fundamentally Speaking The fundamental problems with the market run deep. We live in a world in which the consumer is spent-up, not pent-up. If you don't believe me, the Federal Reserve expanded on this subject last week. It is inevitable that the American consumer will cease its consumption binge of the last decade and begin to retrench and save as the one-time benefit of refinancing cash-outs slows to a trickle. A parabolic boom in housing prices in certain "hot" regions of the U.S. -- and abroad -- has stretched the relationship between household incomes to housing prices to levels never, ever seen in the last century. Spring 2006 will mark a substantive resetting of rates on adjustable-rate and teaser mortgage loans, pressing the consumer ever more. Our economy's foundation is based on an asset-appreciation dependency, compared to past cycles which relied on income and wage growth. I continue to reject the government's notion that inflation is in retreat. Inflation statistics delivered by the BLS are works of fiction, as stubbornly high energy prices, tuition, food, housing, commodities, insurance and other costs are serving to pressure the consumers' real disposable incomes. The 28-year high in corporate profit margins is unsustainable and likely to revert closer to the mean as (1) the benefits of four years of cost cutting subside, and (2) cost pressures overcome pricing power. A more hawkish Federal Reserve will raise federal funds to higher levels than the consensus expected. (Notwithstanding the results from various investor surveys) the body of investors to be overly complacent (with a high measure of bullish conceit) as fear and doubt had been driven from Wall Street. > Source: A Second Shot Across the Bow? Doug Kass Street Insight,3/1/2006 8:39 AM EST http://www.thestreet.com/i/dps/te/theedge1.html#entryId10271033 Friday, March 03, 2006 | 11:30 AM | ///////
Remove | Alert	Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Duncan	03-Mar-06, 07:11 PM (GMT)
4. "i can only believe an explanation"
a So be it ... Your loss not mine ... this will be last you hear of me. d think we can rely on the above statement? how can we, since we have heard it numerously in the past so..... what can we learn from this? never say, you will do something unless you are sure, you will //////// d today bottomed out on day 34 lo the top of the big bear trap make no mistake these bears will get squeezed on a north ride today is a turnaround day an engulfer meaning the pullback off the hi has turned back from south to north ////// d i am not having people say they have had a great day meanwhile not saying, when they have had a bad day i am simply not standing for self gratification unless you can explain something; its not worth a light ///////
Remove | Alert	Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Duncan	03-Mar-06, 08:30 PM (GMT)
5. "make them feel good."
d what can make a person very angry is...... knowing you are right but being too light and knowing you are right but losing your position wild..... anyhow things can only get better if you do the right things with size ////// m A needs the site, more than us, because of his ego. now that he has left the dc, he can concentrate on himself, in his tiny little mind. these type of people, need others, so that they can belittle them, to make them feel good. the one thing, they cant stand, is being by themselves. d indeed /////// http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/delta/2006/0303b.html ///// http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/gue/2006/0303.html //// http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/swenlin/2006/0303.html //// http://www.safehaven.com/article-4707.htm //// The Resource Market’s Transformation By: Dr. Richard S. Appel http://www.financialinsights.org February 26, 2006 – The stocks within the junior exploration sector have recently become influenced by a new mind-set. Earlier in their Bull Market these companies were affected by two primary factors. The first was the price of gold. The yellow metal struck its Bear Market $252.50 low in August,1999. After displaying an initial burst of strength it again declined and posted a double bottom at $255 in early 2001. It has since doubled in price and, until now, the junior stocks have tended to mirror gold’s price action. Each yellow metal up-wave saw a delayed overflow of excitement enter the juniors moving them higher in price, while each gold set-back made their stocks whither. The second heretofore major influence driving the junior shares was a spill-over of emotion and capital from the major gold stocks. As a group, the gold producers tended to move in lock-step fashion with gold, with the exploration companies carried by their tailwinds. For newcomers to this sector I believe that it is important to recognize that the gold and gold producer Bull Markets have influenced virtually all stocks within the mineral exploration universe. It hasn’t greatly mattered whether these small enterprises explored for gold, silver, copper, nickel, uranium or any other precious or base metal. One should view this sector as a world unto itself. Investors and speculators that enter this arena tend to commit a certain portion of their speculative capital to it. They may initially be seeking exposure to gold explorers, but once their money enters it influences the entire group. An analogy would be a small town or country, where one or more sectors for one reason or another attract a large influx of new capital. Most of the shops, factories or other enterprises will experience an increase in business. This will encourage a further rise in spending which benefits the financial state of the entire community. Salaries and incomes will improve, and the citizens will become more prosperous as money flows from one hand to another. So it is with the junior exploration sector. Once exposed to the market, investors witness copper, uranium or other exploration companies generate substantial profits for their stockholders. This moves many to invest in non-gold explorers in their desire to similarly profit. Further, given the numerous Bull Markets in which various precious and base metals find themselves, most stocks within this group attract further capital from other investors for the specific metals for which they search. I believe that a bit of history from my experience is warranted at this juncture. The early stages of a gold Bull Market, which can last for a few years or more, sees little money entering junior companies from the general public. Those who first purchase gold stocks either recognize the birth of a new Bull Market, are resource funds, or are speculators. They are all familiar with the market. The early major money enters from generalist funds. They will take positions in the major companies such as Barrick Gold and Newmont Mining and move their prices higher. They acquire shares of the best known companies as they do in all market areas that they trade. The secondary producers will also do well because some money will flow into them in anticipation that escalating gold prices will drive their profits higher. The pending producers will also attract some capital because profits from their future production now seems assured. The junior companies will float higher in price primarily based upon the “hope” that they will “strike it rich”. Of utmost importance is that all gold stock advances historically follow a similar pattern. They tend to begin with the major companies first leaving their lows behind. This is followed by the secondary producers moving higher, and later by the pending producers. After these sectors are trending higher the junior companies join them, and the entire group rises together. LATER IN THE GOLD CYCLE As gold’s Bull Market progresses, the producing companies continue to strike new highs. Their price appreciations are surpassed by the expected producers whose investors hope will one day generate income. During this period the market capitalizations of the producers and future producers sharply escalate in value. At some point one or more experts announce that “the large caps are too expensive”, and that profits should be taken. They recommend that the money should be reinvested in lower quality gold related companies. For the first time, significant outside money begins to flow into the various levels of exploration and developmental companies. Its main target is companies with large, advanced projects that higher gold prices are expected to make economically viable. Investors by this time witnessed major profits accrue to those who bought junior companies that rose from pennies to dollars, on the back of their impending production. Throughout gold’s Bull Market most investors watched from the sidelines while the large known but earlier uneconomic deposits approached or were brought into production. Their hearts sank while they observed the stock prices and market capitalizations of these companies soar without their participation. Finally, a company or two announce impressive drill results. Earlier, their share prices would have attracted attention, but little excitement. However, now, more and more investors become frightened that they will miss yet another huge score. They compare the new exploration results to those of the “pending producers” that they failed to invest in and fantasize. They dream that their new stock will rise in price and generate huge market capitalizations such as their comparisons. This marks the birth of a “drill hole market”. The metamorphosis that exploration stocks have just undergone is of great importance to investors. It appears that the last few months of 2005 marked the birth of a “drill hole market”. These are rare and are characterized by the great excitement and soaring stock prices that accompany impressive drill results. Investors now compare single drill assays with those that companies with substantial projects and market capitalizations have reported to the market. Investor’s imaginations take control and they believe that their company will become a producer, and rocket to a market capitalization of an advanced successful “look alike company”. Their fear of lower metal prices evaporates. These are times when “the luck of a single drill hole into a mountain of geological uncertainty” will stun the market and multiply a tiny company’s share price. These markets can last for years, and I believe we have just entered such a market. The above was excerpted from the March 2006 issue of Financial Insights © February 26, 2006. I publish Financial Insights. It is a monthly newsletter in which I discuss gold, the financial markets, as well as various junior resource stocks that I believe offer great price appreciation potential. Please visit my website www.financialinsights.org where you will be able to view previous issues of Financial Insights, as well as the companies that I am presently following. You will also be able to learn about me and about a special subscription offer. CAVEAT I expect to have positions in many of the stocks that I discuss in these letters, and I will always disclose them to you. In essence, I will be putting my money where my mouth is! If this troubles you please avoid those companies that I own! I will attempt wherever possible, to offer stocks that I believe will allow my subscribers to participate without unduly affecting the stock price. It is my desire for my subscribers to purchase their stock as cheaply as possible. I would also suggest to beginning purchasers of these stocks, the following: always place limit orders when making purchases. If you don't, you run the risk of paying too much because you may inadvertently and unnecessarily raise the price. It may take a little patience, but in the long run you will save yourself a significant sum of money. In order to have a chance for success in this market, you must spread your risk among several companies. To that end, you should divide your available risk money into equal increments. These are all specula tions! Never invest any money in these stocks that you could not afford to lose all of. Please call the companies regularly. They are controlling your investments. FINANCIAL INSIGHTS is written and published by Dr. Richard Appel and is made available for informational purposes only. Dr. Appel pledges to disclose if he directly or indirectly has a position in any of the securities mentioned. He will make every effort to obtain information from sources believed to be reliable and to present correct ideas and beliefs to the reader, but the accuracy and completeness of his work cannot be guaranteed. Dr. Appel encourages your letters and emails, but cannot respond personally. Be assured that all letters will be read and considered for response in future letters. It is in your best interest to contact any company in which you consider investing, regarding their financial statements and corporate information. Further, you should thoroughly research and consult with a professional investment advisor before making any equity investments. Use of any information contained herein is at the risk of the reader without responsibility on our part. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Dr. Appel does not purport to offer personalized investment advice and is not a registered investment advisor. The information herein may contain forward-looking information within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. In accordance with the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, the statements contained herein that look forward in time, which include everything other than historical information, involve risks and uncertainties that may affect the company’s actual results of operations. © 2006 by Dr. Richard S. Appel. All rights are reserved. Parts of the above may be reproduced in context for inclusion in other publications if the publisher's name and address are also included for credit. -- Posted Friday, 3 March 2006 ////// Frank Timis back to head Regal By Thomas Catan Friday, March 03, 2006 Posted: 03:05 PM EST (20:05 London) Frank Timis seized control of Regal Petroleum in a boardroom coup on Friday, nine months after being ousted as chairman of the oil exploration company. Rex Gaisford, chairman, and Sir Peter Heap, chief executive – brought in last June to turn round the troubled business – resigned after pressure from Mr Timis, the company said. Mr Timis, the colourful founder of the company and still its largest shareholder, said that he had acted to "protect his investment", claiming that the new management had been enjoying inflated salaries and spending the company's money lavishly. "In the nine months since I was removed as chairman of Regal Petroleum, I have seen an inexorable decline in the fortunes of the company I founded, built up and invested in heavily since 1996," Mr Timis said in a statement. "As a substantial shareholder I decided to ask my advisers to requisition an extraordinary general meeting with the intention of proposing that Sir Peter Heap and Rex Gaisford be removed." Mr Timis said that the management had agreed to resign after taking soundings from significant shareholders. He has re-appointed Paul Morgan as chief executive. Mr Morgan worked for Regal between 1998 and 2000 as president and chief executive. "I am delighted to be given the opportunity to head up Regal once again," Mr Morgan said. "My first duty is to … reduce, as a matter of urgency, the heavy cost base. I am absolutely confident that we can restore the fortunes of Regal." Aim-listed Regal has been besieged by problems during the past year. The share price collapsed last May after its main Greek exploration project failed to find oil, leading to worries that a speculative bubble had built up around small Aim-listed oil exploration companies. Mr Timis, a well-known and controversial natural resources entrepreneur, quit as chief executive and then chairman. Before leaving the board, however, he struck a secret deal to sell Regal's Ukrainian gas assets – the only profitable part of the group – though the deal was never completed. It emerged on Friday that Evolution had resigned as the company's broker. Mr Timis, who had also attracted adverse publicity because of drug convictions, said he had boosted his stake from 8.9 to 19 per cent in the space of three weeks. He said he had "acted with speed because I knew there was not a moment to lose if we were to safeguard the company's assets in Ukraine". /////
Remove | Alert	Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Duncan	03-Mar-06, 09:58 PM (GMT)
6. "its a long way to tipperary"
bz Duncan, I think that support at 10650 is critical. Bruce Zaro Managing Director Granite Wealth Management Delta Global Advisors 508-746-4228 508-746-3165 fax ORDERS CANNOT BE TAKEN VIA E-MAIL. PLEASE CONSULT YOUR BROKER OR DELTA’S HOME OFFICE TRADING DESK AT (800)649-4554. Delta Equity Services Corporation e-mail system is for business purposes only. Messages are not confidential. All e-mail may be reviewed by authorized supervisors, compliance or internal audit personnel. E-mail may be archived for at least three years and may be produced to regulatory agencies or others with a legal right to access such information. Delta Equity Services Corporation does not represent or endorse the accuracy, timeliness or reliability of any of the information and/or opinions provided by registered representatives and third-parties. It is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any public or private securities of any kind. PAST INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SECURITIES OFFERED THROUGH DELTA ----- Original Message ----- From: duncan robertson To: bzaro@deltaga.com Sent: Friday, March 03, 2006 3:14 PM where you think safe to short dow 10600 http://www.shortorlong.com/ From: Duncan Robertson ///// http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/odonnell/2006/0303.html //// http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/laird/2006/0303.html http://www.safehaven.com/article-4709.htm //// Heroes of the Revolution, Part II By: Bill Bonner & Eric Fry, The Daily Reckoning Ouzilly, France Friday, March 03, 2006 --------------------- *** Why should we save for a rainy day? Asians save enough for all of us! They'll always be happy to lend us some... *** Oh, the wonders of capitalism never cease!...apparently, all we need is just a bit more central planning... *** The end of the Age of Oil - don't worry, Friedman has a solution...and more! --- Advertisement --- 100% Accuracy... With Average Gains of 100%! Your Chance to turn $5,000 Into $1 Million With the Hot Streak of the Decade If you were one of this hotshot analyst’s loyal readers in 2005, you would have had a chance to make money on every single one of his recommendations. And not just small gains, either - the average gain was 100%. Catch this streak while it’s still hot - and learn how quickly you could turn $5,000 into $1 million. http://www1.youreletters.com/t/340718/4459110/785076/0/ --------------------- "How long can households sustain negative savings?" USA Today posed the same question yesterday that we did, but the USA Today hacks had an answer: a long, long time. Americans own about $62 trillion worth of assets, they tell us. Even if they were to sell them off, mortgage them, and squander them at the rate of $1 trillion per year, that would still give them 62 years. Then, the Chinese might own every light bulb, trailer, and Elvis painting in the entire country. But it would have been a fun 62 years, right? If it only worked that way! The trouble with wealth is that it is not distributed as neatly and equally as the hacks tell us. Some people are flush with assets; others have none. Most people have too few assets. There are millions and millions of people who are already only a step from being paupers. They already count on credit cards, mortgage refinancing, Christmas bonuses and extra hours of work just to keep going. As the national savings rate dips, these people do not calmly lower their own savings rate from, say 10% to 8%. They had no money to start with and now they will be forced to borrow just to keep up with bills. But why should they have to save for a rainy day, they asked themselves distant years ago, when there is so much ready credit just lying around begging to be given away? Hey, if they get themselves in a jam there'll always be another shiny plastic card in the mail to bail them out. The fine print can wait. They'll just borrow and borrow. And why shouldn't they? They are urged by economists to do so. Americans don't really need to save...because Asians save enough for themselves and everyone else in the world. And these poor Asians desperately need someone to take all that money off their hands. What could be nicer than doing them a favor? It's as if we blasted a hole in the back wall of some Asian bank and can take their money whenever we want. "Suffering from the greatest domestic saving shortfall in modern history," explains Stephen Roach, " the United States is increasingly dependent on surplus foreign saving to fill the void. The net national saving rate - the combined saving of individuals, businesses, and the government sector after adjusting for depreciation - fell into negative territory to the tune of 1.3% of national income in late 2005. That means America doesn't save enough even to cover the replacement of its worn-out capital stock. This is a first for the US in the modern post-World War II era - and I believe a first for any hegemonic power over a much longer sweep of world history." Well, there's a first time for everything. This is also the first time any people have ever had such ready access to so much credit. But is a credit card really as good as money in the bank? Are Asian savers really prepared to lend us as much money as we want whenever we need it? On those two questions dangles the empire's financial future. But who bothers to ask? We do, dear reader. We will even bother to answer them. If a rainy day were to come, the difference between savings and credit is the difference between owning a snug pair of galoshes of your very own and having to borrow a pair from that strange lady next door. Will she have a pair that will fit you? Will she be home when you ring the bell? What will she ask in return? Does she even have any galoshes? You just don't know... Which brings us to the second part of the question: can America count on Asians for its savings needs? That question answers itself readily, too. The Chinese, of course, are such dear and trusted neighbors. Helping rich capitalists finance their extravagant lifestyles is what they live for; we all know that. It just warms the heart of the Chinese laborer - a selfless soul, working 12 hours a day in an unheated factory - to know that it is his savings that help Americans pay for their air-conditioned garages and for cable TV in every room. And the Japanese...have they not been reliable allies and helpmates ever since Admiral Perry discovered them? Yes, dear reader, you can stop worrying on that score. Asians have too much money. They will always be only too happy to lend it to us at less than 5% interest. But wait, you say. At 5%, the poor fellows are losing money. Domestic inflation in America is said to be 3%, but who believes it? And on the world market, prices for the things Asians need - oil, copper, wheat, gas, beef, tungsten, silver - are exploding. Gold rose 30% in the last 12 months. The U.S. balance of trade is $700 billion in deficit. The U.S. federal budget is $500 billion in deficit. Why would he continue to lend money to the world's biggest debtor at 5%...when his own hard costs are rising at 10% to 20% per year and when he can get 30% just by holding safe, sure gold? Well, say the economists, because the U.S. dollar is the world's reserve currency and because he needs it to buy oil and those other things. But does he? This month, Iran has promised to start selling its oil for euros. And even if oil were still sold for dollars, there's no guarantee that the price won't change. The foreigner may be better off holding his money in euros, yen, yuan or better yet, in gold. He can always exchange for dollars at the last moment and at, perhaps, a better rate. How long can Americans sustain negative savings? We don't know, but when Asian savers figure out that that they are better off in gold than dollars, U.S. householders are bound to start wondering about it. Click here for all the details: 5-Year MarketSafe Gold Bullion CD http://www.everbank.com/main.asp?idpage=pro_mscd&affid=eb&referID=11639 More news from Aussie Joel and The Rude Awakening... -------------- Eric Fry, reporting from New York City: "So it's time once again for another "Rude Awakening Group Research Project." Between today and next Friday, we would ask you to share with us your favorite "alternative energy" stocks." For the rest of this story, and for more market insights, see today's issue of The Rude Awakening: Sell Stocks, Buy Gas http://www.the-rude-awakening.com/RAissues/2006/march/RA030306.html -------------- Bill Bonner, with more thoughts from France... *** This has been quite the year thus far for precious metals...the price of silver broke through 22-year highs this week, anticipating the launch of the silver ETF. Although the SEC has not yet approved the ETF, Barclays Global Investors' spokeswoman Christine Hudacko confirmed the SEC had begun the standard procedure for financial products in registration, but it does still need to be approved. According to Barclays, "the silver ETF appears structured similarly to the pair of existing gold ETFs - the precious metal is held in a vault and investors trade shares that represent ownership of a fraction of an ounce." The silver ETF will be good news for investors who have not gotten involved in the market before this, due to storage costs and shipping fees. We'll keep you updated... *** The chains grow heavier...the lies grow more absurd...and the delusions more preposterous. At first, the chains are so light they can't be felt and then, they're so heavy they can't be broken. A great empire degenerates into deceit and delusion, imagining that its government is the same modest republic of 1776, with the same simple virtues of the founding fathers. The empire imagines that its businesses are still the energetic, freewheeling enterprises of Gould, Rockefeller and Vanderbilt. We note, for example, that the CEO of Citigroup earned $23 million last year. What were the shareholders thinking? They must have been thinking about what a great thing capitalism is because it permits people to earn far more than they are worth. And this little note from correspondent Byron King: "The bureaucrats forbid even the taking of photos of the flag-draped caskets at Dover. It is, in its own way, the same sleight of hand that is now doing away with the reporting of M-3 by the Federal Reserve. "For a mundane example of the foregoing, I was talking with a young graduate student last weekend. He is studying architecture and urban design. I asked him if he had visions of one day becoming another master builder or planner in the likes of Palladio or Christopher Wren. He said no, much of what they learn in school deals with how to fill out forms at the building code office, and write zoning approval applications. He barely even understood my question." And here cometh our favorite columnist, Thomas L. Friedman, praising the Land of the Free, and imagining that a little more central planning is just what it needs. "The Energy Question is the big strategic issue of our time," he writes, "overtaking 9/11 and the war on terrorism. If a leader from either party would correctly frame the issue - that a gas tax is the single more important geostrategic move we could make today - a solid majority would support it." *** At least we both agree that energy is a big thing. >From the New York Times: "The Age of Oil - 100-plus years of astonishing economic growth made possible by cheap, abundant oil - could be ending without our really being aware of it. Oil is a finite commodity. At some point even the vast reservoirs of Saudi Arabia will run dry. But before that happens there will come a day when oil production 'peaks,' when demand overtakes supply (and never looks back), resulting in large and possibly catastrophic price increases that could make today's $60-a-barrel oil look like chump change. Unless, of course, we begin to develop substitutes for oil. Or begin to live more abstemiously. Or both. The concept of peak oil has not been widely written about. But people are talking about it now. It deserves a careful look - largely because it is almost certainly correct." The days of cheap energy may be over. The world will have to adapt. But how could you make a bigger mess of it than by allowing Thomas L. Friedman come up with a solution - not just for himself, but also for the entire empire? --- Advertisement --- During these 3 Shocking Events of 2006...Join The World's Most Elite Investors This year millions of average American investors will be wiped out... but not this elite circle of potential investors. Introducing TWO very simple investments that will protect you, creating a fortress of "wealth insurance" around your portfolio... Become part of the world's most intelligent and elite investment circle today! http://www1.youreletters.com/t/340718/4459110/785077/0/ --------------------- The Daily Reckoning PRESENTS: World improvers always have their reasons, convinced that they're making the world a better place - when usually, the exact opposite occurs. Bill Bonner examines Che Guevara's road to ruin... HEROES OF THE REVOLUTION, PART II by Bill Bonner During the 1950s, Cuba was no paradise, but it must have come close. American tourists - especially the rich - came by the boatloads. There, they could gamble, drink, swim in the warm sea, take drugs, smoke fine cigars, fish, and relax. Everything was cheap, sweet and warm: the hotels, the liquor...the women. The island was growing rich off of tourism and exports to the United States. By 1957, Cuba had the lowest infant mortality rate in Latin America (the 13th lowest in the world), and the third-highest number of physicians and dentists per capita - more than Britain. In terms of literacy, daily nutrition, and access to mass media, Cuba was a leader in Latin America and crowding the heels of many developed, Western nations. Of course, Cuba's politicians were corrupt. Fulgencio Batista ruled without elections. Whether he ruled well or ill, we don't know, but when, in the last century, the world improvers grabbed many countries by the throat; Cuba didn't get away. In today's essay, we look again at one of the people who transformed Cuba from a playground to a penal colony. Again, we wonder: what was he thinking? Or was he thinking at all? The logic that leads to modest changes for the better in a man's private life, leads to monumental bamboozles in public life. We see it again today. America wants peace and prosperity in the Mideast, observes President Bush. Here in the West we have peace and prosperity, he notices acutely. Our governments are democracies, he muses. In democracies, people vote. Ergo, let us force people to vote in the Mideast and they will be peaceful and prosperous. Or, he casts his eye on the country's finances: America needs a stable currency, he thinks, but also one that is flexible enough to respond to financial crises. So, we will create a central bank whose job it is to make sure we have one. Both propositions sound logical on the surface, but both are laced with ambiguities and adulterated by fat layers of uncertainty and wishful thinking. Ernesto 'Che' Guevara played many different roles in his 39 years - a poseur and a clown in most of them. Last week, we pointed out that as an intellectual, Che made George W. Bush look like Heisenberg. And as a military strategist, he made Donald Rumsfeld look like von Clausewitz. But what intrigues us most is Che's role as head of the Central Bank of Cuba. Of course, we know little about his actual performance as a central banker. We can merely guess from the results that no one ever did the job worse. This is the man of whom no less a thinker than Jean Paul Sartre - and there is no other thinker we think less of - said was "the world's most perfect human being." Well, at least we can vouch that he was certainly a perfect failure. Of all his many roles, it was as central banker that might have been his most comical. At least he didn't shoot anyone. Of course, we never met the man. We should probably be glad we didn't. That magnetic personality of his might have turned us into a piece of dumb iron, too. We might have clamped onto the glamorous guerilla like a calendar magnet to a refrigerator door, and followed him to Bolivia, where he was going to show the world how to run a revolution. We might have abandoned our family the way he did - leaving a wife and five children to the tender mercies of the Castro regime. We might have ended up in a dry Bolivian grave with holes in our chest, too. We can only hope for the good fortune to have a gifted photographer take photos of us laid out on the table before we get dumped in our hole. Then, at least our family might get royalty payments from all the T-shirts and book sales. Che's childhood friend, Alberto Granado, lives in Madrid and earns money by selling memories. Che owes the Bolivian Guardia Civil a big thank you. He was on the way to becoming a pathetic fool. Actually, those who knew him well already thought he was a pathetic fool. But he still had those curls. He would still have made a fairly decent-looking corpse, if you ignored the flabby chest and paunchy stomach. But his career as revolutionary jester and gonzo-guerrilla jefe was clearly in decline, and if they hadn't gunned him down when they did, people would have soon begun to laugh at him. Ho Chi Minh would have made a perfectly good pastry chef, we recall. Robespierre was a decent lawyer. Stalin might have comforted souls as an Eastern Orthodox priest and Adolf Hitler could have sold his watercolors of Vienna. In every case, the world would have been better off. And was the world not impoverished once more when, in the mid-'50s, Ernesto 'Che' Guevara, a young man from a good Argentine family, abandoned the practice of saving people through medicine and took up the technique of destroying them through revolutionary politics? Wouldn't the world clearly be a better place if Che had made a career treating skin disorders of the people who came to him rather than botching the good health of the whole planet? Of course, the man had his own reasons. The world improvers always do. But here we pause to admire the addled grandeur of Che's ambition. The world was not good enough for him. He wanted to make a new one. To Che, communism was not a fixed design for a new world, but merely an invitation to boss people around. He saw the world as an empty page of drafting paper and he wanted the only magic marker in his own fingers. In 1960, Che took a trip around the world visiting crackpot communist regimes. It was a kind of Hellhole Tour for Revolutionaries. The country that impressed him "the most," it is reported, was North Korea, a country where even 40 years later, people are struggling to get enough to eat. According to a UN study, "crop failures" have caused such a drastic cut in daily rations in 2003 that North Korean "households have to rely on alternative ways of getting food including rearing livestock, growing kitchen gardens and collecting wild foods like edible grasses, acorns, tree bark and sea algae." Of course, if Che liked North Korea so much, he might have considered staying on there and munching on the tree bark. But if you think that that was ever a possibility, you are missing the malignant imbecility that defines the world improver's mind. It is not enough for him to live in a stifling prison; he insists that you live in one, too. This is why Che chose Bolivia for his last campaign; the country lies in the heart of South America, bordering Peru, Chile, Paraguay, Brazil and Argentina. He figured that if he could undermine the legitimate government of Bolivia, he could then export revolution to the entire continent and then, the world. He considered it the final showdown between capitalism and communism. But his absurd hallucinations did not stop there. Che did not merely want a new world; he also insisted on a whole new race of human beings to put in it. During the course of the guerilla war against the Batista government, Che took over the town of Sancti Spiritus and immediately issued a series of edicts that sounded like Oliver Cromwell bossing the Irish around. He imposed regulations covering everything: sex, drinking, gambling. You have to marvel at the swelling vanity of it all. What made Guevara think he knew better? Why were his drinking rules superior to the rules people imposed on themselves? But that is the world improver's way: a road to ruin, paved with bad intentions. But as soon as his back was turned, what did the ungrateful, fun-loving Cubans do? They went right back to pitching woo and getting drunk - just as they always had. Thus, Che learned that edicts alone were not enough. Later, he would try to correct his heaving masses in a more familiar way - by sending them to concentration camps. As he explained, " only send to Guanahacabibes those doubtful cases where we are not sure people should go to jail...people who have committed crimes against revolutionary morals." Guanahacabibes was the model for a whole gulag of labor camps set up to punish, confine, and eliminate people thought to be uncooperative. Dissidents, homosexuals, AIDS victims, Catholics, Jehovah's Witnesses, Afro-Cuban priests - the victims changed with the revolutionary fashions - were forced at gunpoint to go to special Unidades Militares de Ayuda a la Producción, or Military Units to Help Production, camps. Some were tortured. Some were worked to death. Some eventually returned. Some didn't. The Soviets had been Che's backers and his inspiration for his work camps, his kangaroo courts, and much of his appalling rhetoric. But no matter how much support they gave, it wasn't enough. Besides, by the 1960s, the Russian revolution was already 40 years old. The old revolutionaries were dead and the new ones were party hacks - bureaucrats who looked forward to retirement. When the Cuban missile crisis exploded, Moscow backed down. Poor Che was dreadfully disappointed. He'd wanted to fire the missiles himself and go out in a blaze of ersatz glory: "This country is willing to risk everything in an atomic war of unimaginable destructiveness to defend a principle," said Che. Then, he told the British communist newspaper, "If the rockets had remained, we would have used them all and directed them against the very heart of the United States, including New York, in our defense against aggression." Poor Che. Even the Russians let him down. The whole race had let him down. No, this sorry species was not good enough for him. He began to call for a "New Socialist man" to populate his new world. In his famous article, "Notes on Man and Socialism," he argued, "to build communism, you must build new men as well as the new economic base." The basis of revolutionary struggle is "the happiness of people," he explained, helpfully. This required the creation of more complete and more fully developed human beings. But as far as we can tell, the New Socialist man was new only in his willingness to go along happily with any goofball idea Che came up with. Readers will recognize the New Man; he is not that much different in essentials, actually, from the old one: ready to believe almost anything and ready to go along with almost anything. He is a good revolutionary, Che explained, because he hates the bourgeoisie, "which pushes a human being beyond his natural limitations, making him into an effective, violent, selective, and cold-blooded killing machine." That is to say, Che saw the new world order as nothing more than the society he wanted to run himself. And the New Socialist Man? He saw him every time he looked in the mirror. One of his friends asked how he could reconcile this line of thinking with his oath as a doctor. "Look," he replied, sounding more like an unreconstructed hit man than a New Socialist man, " in this thing you have to kill before they kill you." For Che also had the old-fashioned habit of killing people who got in his way, no matter what class they were part of. Like his Bolshevik role models, he did not hesitate to kill peasants as well as factory owners when they became inconvenient or recalcitrant. He also had an old-world way of lying, cheating and stealing to get what he wanted. He murdered people on trumped up charges, stole their property, redistributed choice property to communist party cronies, and set up forced labor camps on the Soviet model. After Batista fled the country, Che seized an immigrant's mansion for himself. Opponents were hauled in front of the military court, which, like Stalinist courts, set about cleansing Cuba of counterrevolutionary elements. Javier Arzuaga, a Basque chaplain who succored the condemned men, gives this recollection of life in the old stone fortress of La Cubana with Che in command: "There were about eight hundred prisoners in a space fit for no more than three hundred: former Batista military and police personnel, some journalists, a few businessmen and merchants. The revolutionary tribunal was made of militiamen... I remember especially the case of Ariel Lima, a young boy. Che did not budge. Nor did Fidel, whom I visited. I became so traumatized that at the end of May 1959 I was ordered to leave the parish of Casa Blanca, where La Cabaña was located and where I had held Mass for three years." Che-as-central-banker was just as bad as Che-as-judge-and-jury " was ignorant of the most elementary economic principles," said his deputy, Ernesto Betancourt. Whether that was a good or a bad thing, we don't know. If he had understood economics, he wouldn't have been a communist in the first place. Had he understood anything about economics, he wouldn't have been in Fidel's little band of sweaty revolutionaries and would never have gotten the job running the Central Bank of Cuba. In his case, not knowing anything about economics was a job requirement. So, what does a man who doesn't know a thing about economics do when he gets to be head of a central bank? Alvaro Vargas explains what happened: "Guevara's powers of perception regarding the world economy were famously expressed in 1961, at a hemispheric conference in Uruguay, where he predicted a 10 percent rate of growth for Cuba 'without the slightest fear,' and, by 1980, a per capita income greater than that of 'the U.S. today.' In fact, by 1997, the thirtieth anniversary of his death, Cubans were dieting on a ration of five pounds of rice and one pound of beans per month; four ounces of meat twice a year; four ounces of soybean paste per week; and four eggs per month." Of course, all world improvers depend on central planning; they know their plans are absolutely central to improving you. As Guevara explained in 1961: "Another function of the ministry is planning...We already control the means of production, but is this enough? No! We must know all the statistics, all the economic factors. As we know, the capitalist system left no statistics, so the government is working on them now." Planning was easy enough. It was getting a result that was difficult, as Che began to realize: "We made a laboratory plan. We estimated the production, and this was our working plan. Today we can see clearly that the masses did not participate in the plan, and a plan that lacks the participation of the masses is a plan that is always threatened with defeat." Those masses! What a pain in the neck they were. You had to boss them around, but you had to get them on your side, too! Che's thinking develops: "After a year of painful experience, we came to the conclusion that it was most essential to change our whole style of operating and to reorganize the state apparatus in the most rational way, following the planning methods known in our sister socialist countries. " After a few more months, Che gave up. The economy was a wreck and Che longed for the good old days when "it was all a lot of fun, what with the bombs, speeches, and other distractions to break the monotony I was living in." So, in 1965, the now-famous revolutionary went to Africa, where he backed Pierre Mulele in the Congo. Nobel prize winning novelist V.S. Naipaul told how Mulele spiffed up things in the heart of darkness: by killing everyone who could read and everyone who wore a tie. Che's intervention may have helped Mulele lose to Mobutu, who crushed the insurgents and ruled like a brutal oaf for decades. When the Africans had failed him, Che decided to try his own people again...or, at least people who spoke his language. He went off to Bolivia and mounted another slapstick revolutionary movement. It ended when he was shot by a Bolivian firing squad. That was when Che-the-pathetic-blundering-world improver died. It was not long after that he was resurrected as Che-the-romantic-revolutionary and T-shirt symbol. Bill Bonner The Daily Reckoning Editor's Note: Bill Bonner is the founder and editor of The Daily Reckoning. He is also the author, with Addison Wiggin, of The Wall Street Journal best seller Financial Reckoning Day: Surviving the Soft Depression of the 21st Century (John Wiley & Sons). In Bonner and Wiggin's follow-up book, Empire of Debt: The Rise of an Epic Financial Crisis, they wield their sardonic brand of humor to expose the nation for what it really is - an empire built on delusions. Daily Reckoning readers can buy their copy of Empire of Debt at a discount - just click on the link below: "Now Perhaps Someone Will Listen!" http://dailyreckoning.com/EmpireDebt.html -- Posted Friday, 3 March 2006 ////// Dear Friend of Silver, While we try to stay with silver in our work, we felt that this report by Peter Spina may be of interest to you. http://www.molyseek.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=21&Itemid=2 Salute to $10 silver! http://www.SilverStrategies.com Team ////
Remove | Alert	Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Duncan	04-Mar-06, 08:50 AM (GMT)
7. "day traders dont have enough time to really act effectively..."
g You sill have not answered my question, how much money have you made since doing bubu.. The figures you post on bubu past performance are hypothetical,. you have not been trading it since 1996. so a simple question how much have you made personally from bubu. //// mp I'm not as negative on the dow as I am on the economy. The dow should continue in a range bound trade for few years before beginning its huge decline. The way in which I would look to profit from the current scenario is to own certain high yielding intl. stocks. Michael Pento Senior Market Strategist Delta Global Advisors, Inc. PO Box 801 Osprey, FL 34229 Toll Free: 866-772-1198 Direct: 732-213-1295 www.deltaga.com ORDERS CANNOT BE TAKEN VIA E-MAIL. PLEASE CONSULT YOUR BROKER OR DELTA’S HOME OFFICE TRADING DESK AT (800)649-4554. Delta Equity Services Corporation e-mail system is for business purposes only. Messages are not confidential. All e-mail may be reviewed by authorized supervisors, compliance or internal audit personnel. E-mail may be archived for at least three years and may be produced to regulatory agencies or others with a legal right to access such information. Delta Equity Services Corporation does not represent or endorse the accuracy, timeliness or reliability of any of the information and/or opinions provided by registered representatives and third-parties. It is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any public or private securities of any kind. PAST INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SECURITIES OFFERED THROUGH DELTA EQUITY SERVICES CORPORATION, 579 MAIN STREET, BOLTON, MA 01740, (800) 649-3883. MEMBER NASD, SIPC, AND MSRB. ----- Original Message ----- From: duncan robertson To: mp Sent: Friday, March 03, 2006 3:12 PM where is it safe to short dow 10600 http://www.shortorlong.com/ From: Duncan Robertson ////// http://www.paulfredrick.com good for clothes ///// Soccer star's wife dies of cancer McAllister stepped down as Coventry boss to look after his wife The wife of former Scotland football captain Gary McAllister has died after losing her battle against cancer, a family spokesman said on Friday. Denise McAllister's condition had been thought to be improving, but took a turn for the worse over recent months. The ex Motherwell, Leicester, Leeds United, Liverpool and Coventry City player quit as manager of the latter club to look after his wife in 2003. Mrs McAllister was diagnosed with breast cancer around six years ago. In May 2005 McAllister said her progress was "pretty good", although the battle was "still ongoing". The couple married at Gretna Green in 1993, and they had a son Jake, now aged 10. She was first treated for breast cancer after finding a lump while seven months pregnant with the couple's second child. Denise was very generous in telling her personal story in order to help others Stephanie Jacobs, Breast Cancer Care Mrs McAllister refused treatment until Oliver was born, then had an operation to remove her breast and lymph glands. She was an ambassador for Breast Cancer Care and took part as a model in a star-studded charity fashion show attended by Cherie Blair in 2002. Stephanie Jacobs, chair of the charity, said: "Denise was very generous in telling her personal story in order to help others at that time, and she continued to raise awareness of our charity and what we do in subsequent years. "Everyone at Breast Cancer Care, especially those of us who met her, would like to extend our deepest sympathies to Denise's family and friends at this very sad time." McAllister, 41, has said of his choice to quit Coventry City to care for Denise "As far as I was concerned it wasn't a decision. "It was just the natural thing to do; I didn't want to be at a football club." ///// pru Thanks duncan well yes I think literal day traders dont have enough time to really act effectively... Best Chris ----- Original Message ----- From: duncan robertson To: pru Sent: Friday, March 03, 2006 1:34 PM good stuff you write btw; what is you view on intraday constant traders? scalping; day trading and such like my own view is it dont work well enough its too near the edge i have to understand the chart in the bigger picture cordially http://www.shortorlong.com/ From: Duncan Robertson ///// Hi This is Dave from deltaneutraltrading.com. Please only use these examples for educational purposes. Paper trade them. I was doing my search for option inconsistencies and here is what I found. I am looking at how much an option costs per day compared to an option from a different month in the same futures market. June T-Bond futures contract closed at 111-12 (April options follow the June Futures) April T-Bond options have 21 days left until expiration. June T-Bond options have 84 days left until expiration. April T-Bond 114 Call options settled at -04 (4 ticks). June T-Bond 114 Call options settled at -32 (32 ticks). The June 114 Call is 8 times more expensive than The April 114 Call, but it ONLY has 4 times more time left. April T-Bond 108 Put options settled at -03 (3 ticks). June T-Bond 108 Put options settled at -27(27 ticks). . The June 108 Put is 9 times more expensive than The April 108 Put, but it ONLY has 4 times more time left. When putting on any calendar spread, buy the cheaper cost per day options and sell the more expensive. Even if you are not putting on a spread, this is a great way to choose which option to buy or sell. For more information on these non-directional option techniques, click below: http://www.deltaneutraltrading.com/book.html If you are looking for directional trading techniques, click below: http://www.deltaneutraltrading.com/MarketClub.html take care dave Rivera Publishing Inc. 3511 Riverdale Avenue Riverdale, NY 10463 ////// http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary/trading_diary.htm The Big Picture: The US dollar is strengthening against major trading partners. ///// d to g you are not able to operate in a properly constituted honest open transparent non aliased arena you practice and dick about with money at risk you wont do size On 3 Mar 2006, at 22:33, g wrote: You sill have not answered my question, how much money have you made since doing bubu.. The figures you post on bubu past performance are hypothetical,. d thats the wrong word they are historical g you have not been trading bubu since 1996. so a simple question how much have you made personally from bubu. d you are like trader a somehow me making money by teaching and bubu chews you up why are you asking me this question do you know what is going on in your psyche do you realise what you are really fighting psyche ///// mb I rarely take more than one position in a week and rarely hold it for more than 2 days. Mike Burk d Sent: Sunday, February 12, 2006 1:09 PM To: Mike Burk Subject: many round turns? does constant intraday trading work effectively and sustainably for you kind regards http://www.shortorlong.com/ From: Duncan Robertson //// d have you a plan on how you are going to make your million? http://www.shortorlong.com/ From: Duncan Robertson ///// to d Nice site you have ////
Remove | Alert	Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Duncan	04-Mar-06, 09:48 AM (GMT)
8. "DJIA - The very good news"
As promised, tonight I show the chart that I called "The very good news chart." This is a long term chart that primarily should be of interest to investors with a longer time horizon than, say swing traders. It is somewhat unassuming in appearance, and only time will tell if I am correct on either forecast. Today was too weird to try to cast blame. We still have the appearance of being held at a constant level, like a fly stuck on fly paper. I would point out that the markets have seen an increase in volume through this week. With the COMPX trend up, and the Dow appearing to pivot, as called for by the Lockstep chart (not shown tonight), we may be setting up for some rise next week. T336a. T337a. THE "VERY GOOD NEWS" CHART The "good news" you'll remember is that we actually have been in the red R-S uptrend channel for almost a year now. Even my most avid long time readers probably cannot see how I arrived at the Y support line in chart T339, or how numerous puzzle pieces that I've discussed since 2003, suddenly have for me snapped together. It is my intention to NOT explain how I determined the Y line (until it's in the book), but please just accept that there are reasons for its slope and level. I also have arbitrarily added the X resistance line to the chart, since my gut tells me that we will go up a channel, but we don't know how wide that channel will prove to be. There's even a reason, short of a major 9/11, or "Crisis of Confidence" event, for expecting us to be in a channel. WHAT MAKES THIS VERY GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE X-Y CHANNEL IS STEEPER THAN THE R-S CHANNEL! T339. TRADING IN THE CHANNELS Here again, when we look ahead, we are faced with the question, "where are we going?" Most beginners, or disbelievers are just not able to see the validity of the answer, "Up, down, or sideways." If I say that I believe the Dow is going to go up the X-Y channel, and it falls from today's level to the Y line, I typically will get a post "See, you're always wrong, I do the opposite of what you say to make money." Well, it's little different from the up and down we've experienced for the last year withinin the R-S channel. It's the long time, and the short time view thingy, and the practical inability to articulate all of the expected gyrations of a wiggly line, in a single statement, at any given point in time. Let me say here that the fact that the S and the Y support lines both intersect the ceiling of Alan's Alley about July 1st of this year is, I currently believe, truly a coincidence. BERNANKE'S FREE FIRE ZONE So, here's where we're at today. We are sitting exactly on the ceiling line of Alan's Alley. We're also sitting well within both of our uptrending channels. Like Ben is sitting in a bunker, and he has a 180 degree field of fire. "Up, down, or sideways." Any direction he moves the Dow, and also the COMPX, he still moves them within those two uptrending channels. That can include a lot of joy, or grief, if he moves us above or below that ceiling level. As time goes on, however, and those support lines move upward, he will be more and more limited how low he can go. There are, of course, numerous possible movement scenarios that he might consider, and we can figure most of those out right now. But, only he knows which one, or some other, that he will elect to play, until his playing leaves some visible tracks. ASSUMING THAT BEN SEES THE SAME LINES THAT I'VE PLACED ON CHART T339, they are like lines in the road that we could lurch drunkenly within. We could even stagger forward a lot without even touching the lines. We could stagger for months without leaving Alan's Alley. Or, we could take off Monday for a test of the Y ceiling line. Chart T339 is definitely not a "tomorrow chart." As time passes, the down options decrease. But, interestingly, so do the up options. "Think about that!" (That's a powerful line, stolen from the end of a lecture in the movie "Kinsey") More on this later. - Charlie Miller 2006-03-03 _____________________________________________________________________ This nightly analysis and the accompanying charts are copyright 1999-2006 by C. E. Miller. Their distribution is free from cemcemcem@aol.com, and they may be freely distributed and/or published with proper attribution to the author, with the limitation that neither the text nor the charts shall be altered or edited in any way without the express permission of the author. Write to the above address to be added or to be removed from this mailing list.
Remove | Alert	Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Duncan	04-Mar-06, 11:06 AM (GMT)
9. "the more n conclusion, I think day traders are at a real disadvantage -- people that know about something; the less it tends to work out"
d to kk have you a plan on how you are going to make your million? http://www.shortorlong.com/ From: Duncan Robertson d still waiting for a reply from this guy that tells us something and it should tell kk something anyhow //// Scotland seizes up as blizzards move south FRANK URQUHART, JOHN ROSS AND JONATHAN LESSWARE RECORD-BREAKING snowfalls brought parts of Scotland to a standstill yesterday as the Arctic weather spread south across the country. Heavy blizzards hit the central belt with Fife, the Lothians and parts of Dumfries and Galloway suffering heavy snow showers throughout the morning, forcing 48 schools to shut. In Stranraer, 15 schools closed as a severe snowstorm swept along the coast causing drifting and risky road conditions. Parts of Midlothian were also under several inches of snow, while Edinburgh was also blanketed. The north remained under a carpet of white with the Met Office confirming that the accumulation of snow at Aberdeen airport so far this month had reached 26cm (ten inches) by midday - beating the previous March record of 25cm set in 1958, the year its records began. Traffic on almost every major route in the north-east was trapped in a major gridlock during the morning rush hour after heavy overnight falls left snow-clearing crews fighting a losing battle. Between 10-15cm of fresh snow fell in the Highlands, adding to the chaos and disruption of the previous few days. More than 300 schools across the north remained shut, while all the schools in Shetland and all but three in Orkney remained closed for the third day in succession. The overnight snowfalls also caused traffic gridlock in the centre of Inverness as morning commuters fought their way to work. One driver said that the main A96 Inverness-to-Aberdeen road resembled a car park because of the number of abandoned vehicles. A spokesman for Grampian police urged motorists to be particularly cautious and only travel if the journey was essential. The snowfall also affected the weekend sporting fixtures, with six Scottish League games cancelled and heated discussions over whether two Scottish Premier League matches should go ahead. Some areas saw spectacular thunder and lightning storms and accompanying hail. A Met Office spokesman said: "There are probably parts of Aberdeenshire and Moray with over a foot of snow and there is no sign of conditions easing. "A new cold front is coming down from the north this weekend. The winds will also pick up again and we could see some drifting problems returning over the weekend for Aberdeenshire. "A good part of Scotland will have seen snow today, and there will be further snow showers over the weekend." The spokesman added: "Winter thunderstorms are not unusual in themselves, but what is very unusual is to have deep snow cover and thunderstorms at the same time." Aberdeen-based Northsound Radio went off air for about 15 minutes after its mast was struck by lightning. Meanwhile, ice on the River Dee has forced the postponement of today's annual boat race between crews from Aberdeen University and Robert Gordon University. Air services in the Highlands and Islands were disrupted for the fourth consecutive day. Airports at Campbeltown, Islay, Inverness, Kirkwall, Stornoway and Tiree were all closed first thing yesterday morning as heavy showers continued to fall. Related topic • Weather Last updated: 04-Mar-06 01:49 GMT ///// Good Morning, Please find here the link to the latest issue of the Investment Commentary. Please download the pdf file by clicking on the following link: http://www.samariumgroup.com/downloads/Investment-Commentary.pdf (The link has been checked for viruses and worms, and does not contain any mailicious software according to the latest scan) Sincerely, Dr. Volkmar G. Hable //// Friday, 3 March 2006, 09:50 GMT 'Bubble builds' in Russian market The Russian stock market's meteoric rise over the last year may have reached a ceiling and fears are growing that a financial bubble is forming. With Moscow's benchmark RTS having risen 83% over the last year, the government now believes that prices are at dangerously unsustainable levels. An huge influx of foreign pension funds and surging Russian oil revenues have driven the stock market's record rise. Growth in shares of energy firms has been a particular source of concern. "We are very afraid that a so-called bubble is being created," said Russia's economy minister, German Gref. "We need to keep our finger on the pulse of key companies to be sure that investor optimism does not lead to a collapse." Cooling the market Last month, Russia's stock market regulator secured backing from the Kremlin for a series of reforms designed to cool down the current boom in share prices. "When a market is rising because the supply of funds is greater than the supply of assets, it is difficult to say when the ride will end" Roland Nash, analyst This followed a warning from the head of Russia's Federal Financial Markets Service, Oleg Vyugin, who said that the current level of share prices was unsustainable. His reform strategy includes more pension fund investments and extra safeguards against insider trading. Analysts said Moscow wanted more stable markets ahead of future privatisations. A wave of market flotations are expected this year, including the keenly-awaited float of Russia's Rosneft oil group. But some analysts warn that the level of enthusiasm for the Russian stock market is not justified by economic fundamentals. "When a market is rising because the supply of funds is greater than the supply of assets, it is difficult to say when the ride will end," said Roland Nash, head of research at the Renaissance Capital investment bank. ///// Lifestyle costs Britons a staggering £65bn JENNIFER HILL BRITONS collectively shell out £65 billion per year on daily lifestyle purchases - cigarettes, soft drinks and chocolate bars - more than on big-ticket items, such as holidays. Yet, 51 per cent of the population admit they rarely keep track of day-to-day spending, but always shop around for expensive items. That comes despite a 3.1 per cent rise in the cost of day-to-day purchases last year, outstripping the rate of inflation over the 12-month period. As measured by the Retail Price Index, it averaged 2.8 per cent over the year. At the same time, the cost of big-ticket items fell by 6.7 per cent, according to Egg's latest Retail Therapy Index (RTI), which measures a basket of goods and services reflecting the nation's lifestyle purchases. "It's fascinating that, as consumers, we spend more on soft drinks, cigarettes and snacks than we do on going away on holiday, yet keeping track of this spending is not a priority for most people," said Mark Nancarrow, chief executive of Egg. "While we carefully shop around when choosing our holidays, we rarely monitor how and where we spend our daily cash which, ironically, is where the bulk of our spending money goes and where prices appear to be rising." The average Briton spends £1,134 per person on holidays per year, less than the £1,380 forked out on cigarettes, soft drinks, snacks and magazines. Cigarettes saw the biggest price rise during 2005, up 4.7 per cent, meaning the average smoker paid almost £50 a year more for lighting up. Chocolate lovers, meanwhile, should be slimmer in the wallet due to another inflation-busting price increase - this time of 3.6 per cent. The average Briton was found to spent an average £18 per month on confectionery and soft drinks, or £216 per year. And, a well-read nation we might be, but our daily reading material has lifted 2.1 per cent in price year-on-year. However, the cost of technological big-ticket items, cars and holiday abroad tumbled during the year. Audio-visual equipment - i-Pods, plasma screen televisions, DVD players and the like - saw a double-digit decrease of 15.4 per cent. Other electrical appliances, such as white goods, also saw significant falls in prices - down an average of 6.5 per cent - with the cost of buying a car down 3 per cent. And, the price of holidaying abroad dropped too, as the popularity and availability of low cost no-frills airline flights continued to grow. Nancarrow urged consumers to keep a check on spending, regardless of how small and incidental it might seem: "When it comes to daily money management, most admit to having a poor grasp of how much and how regularly they spend on such purchases." He added: "'I don't know where my money goes' is something you often hear people claim: our research suggests that a big percentage of our disposable income often 'goes' on inexpensive, but frequently bought items." Related topic • Consumer spending Last updated: 04-Mar-06 01:49 GMT ///// Your Money The Times March 04, 2006 PERSONAL INVESTOR Careless talk and oversized egos can cost dear By Graham Searjeant TRADERS in Google shares are nervous. Since the top internet search engine floated in America 18 months ago, its shares have multiplied 3.5 times in value although its virtues were well known at the time of the launch and the company was already valued at nearly £20 billion. The price took a nasty turn in January when quarterly earnings disappointed, largely because of tax issues. But they were recovering until Tuesday morning, when George Reyes, the chief financial officer, made off-the-cuff remarks at a Merrill Lynch internet conference. Mr Reyes stated the obvious. The law of numbers is catching up with Google, so growth rates of 90 per cent or 100 per cent cannot continue indefinitely. And the company’s efforts to turn the billions of visits to its site into income, to “monetise” its internet traffic, had covered most of the easy ways. From now on, it would rely more on the organic growth of the market. The rationale for investing in Google is to back the market leader in a growth industry. But these seemingly sensible remarks were enough to knock 14 per cent off Google’s share price. It took a reassuring statement from the company, before Thursday’s scheduled investor presentation, to halve the loss. The sober finance man unwittingly challenged the hope value in Google’s share price. When a big company’s shares trade at more than 70 times reported earnings, investors are counting on exciting things happening in the future that no one yet knows about. At least Mr Reyes was glowing about Google and its great future. John Pluthero will have more difficulty selling Cable & Wireless as a quality company. The new chief executive of C&W’s UK business sent staff a now highly publicised e-mail: “Congratulations, we work for an underperforming company in a crappy industry and it’s going to be hell for the next 12 months” and invited staff who did not like the idea to leave. The message accidentally echoes Gerald Ratner, who publicly dismissed one of the sets sold in his jewellery chain as “total crap”. The family brand name died in 48 hours. Insulting customers is taboo. Mr Pluthero actually wants to lose 90 per cent of his business telecoms customers, plus half his UK employees, so that a slimmed merger of C&W UK and Energis, which it bought for £700 million last year, can build on a base of 3,000 profit-earning, well-serviced clients. Some things are better left unsaid. Those attractive customers may prefer service from a company not in the throes of radical upheaval. Richard Lapthorne, C&W’s chairman, then claimed that Energis had not been bought to expand the business, as first claimed, but as an expensive way to acquire its management, chiefly Mr Pluthero. Over his three years in charge, Mr Lapthorne hired the previous chief executive, fired him and in between backed a strategy that has now been torn up. Why is he still there? Looking back, the Cable & Wireless UK being developed under the late Lord Sharpe of Grimsdyke would now be the envy of all. It brought together broadband, cable and mobile telecoms, the ideal for targeting today’s consumer market. C&W still has such parts of its far-flung network of national businesses that have not been flogged to finance new schemes. But they have been neglected and this division has been managerially separated, probably to await a takeover. Since Lord Sharpe retired 15 years ago, C&W has been an adventure playground for oversized egos, including five chief executives, one of whom pursued a different strategy from his executive chairman. As at Marconi, ICI et al, one lesson is that investors choose businesses to back. Companies should not keep transforming themselves to follow the latest fashion. Dixons, which started Freeserve, where Mr Pluthero cut his teeth, wisely spun off the internet business and remained a retailer. Cable & Wireless shares sagged under the weight of this week’s gaudy publicity. Poor Mr Ratner’s desire to sound smart in public cost investors a packet. A gaffe like Mr Reyes’s, if it has no impact on the business, can offer a share-buying or at least a trading opportunity. C&W investors must hope that the Lapthorne and Pluthero embarrassments will fall into the Reyes rather than the Ratner category. Like naughty footballers, both should at least be fined two weeks’ wages. //////// http://www.europe2020.org/en/section_global/150206.htm http://jessel.100megsfree3.com/arms021206.png http://jessel.100megsfree3.com/deflator.png http://jessel.100megsfree3.com/ProgramTrading.png http://jessel.100megsfree3.com/DollarLT.png http://jessel.100megsfree3.com/Dow.png http://jessel.100megsfree3.com/Compx.png http://jessel.100megsfree3.com/SPX.png http://jessel.100megsfree3.com/DX.png http://jessel.100megsfree3.com/DowLT.png ///// ***************************************************************************** * FIEND'S SUPERBEAR MARKET REPORT * * March 3, 2006 * * * * e-mail: fiendbear@fiendbear.com * * web address: http://www.fiendbear.com * ***************************************************************************** Fiend Commentary ================ Bouncing Around The major averages fell back again on Thursday with volume that was higher than on Wednesday's rally. The Dow remained above 11,000 but its momentum continues to wane. Not a lot of exciting for stocks but commodities were lively. The big news which was scarcely reported was silver's big move to close above $10 an ounce for the first time in more than twenty years. The move was decisive as the metal jumped over 4% or 42 cents to close at $10.21. In recent months, silver has had a tremendous move higher without much recognition. Gold moved higher as well and closed back above $570 an ounce. Gold stocks were also stronger as the whole metal sector pressed forward. Oil has also been making a comeback. Black gold closed back above $63 a barrel and has jumped about $5 a barrel in just the past few weeks. Despite all the calls to the contrary, commodity prices continue to show all the signs of a strong secular bull market. The fact that silver could close above $10 an ounce with little note is a sign that skepticism still exists. Metal prices were likely helped by weakness in the U.S. dollar which has faltered in recent sessions. Bonds also had another rough day as economic reports have been generally strong recently. /////// Stolen Matisse up for sale on website Tom Phillips in Rio de Janeiro Saturday March 4, 2006 The Guardian Agents from Interpol launched an international investigation yesterday after one of four works of art stolen during an audacious, multimillion pound raid on a museum in Rio was put up for sale on a Russian website. Federal police said Henri Matisse's Luxembourg Gardens had been placed on the auction site Mastak for around four hours and that they suspected collaboration between foreign buyers and drug traffickers. Reports in the Brazilian press suggested that a French man, who used to live in a beachside apartment in upmarket Ipanema, may have been the brains behind the robbery. The paintings, valued at around $50m, were snatched on the first day of carnival from the Chacara do Ceu museum in the Santa Teresa district. Armed thieves stormed the museum during asamba procession before supposedly making their escape through the crowds. Also among the stolen paintings were Claude Monet's Marine; Picasso's The Dance and Salvador Dali's Two Balconies. As a reconstruction of the crime entered its second day yesterday, police said that burnt fragments of three of the frames had been found in a favela close to the museum. The fragments were located near a bar in the Morro dos Prazeres, a hilltop shanty town well known for the elaborate graffiti that adorns its entrance. Isabelle Vasconcellos, the police chief heading the investigation, told the Guardian they suspected that drug traffickers were to sell the paintings, which she believes are still in Rio de Janeiro. She said: "We have a videotape of the procession but we haven't been able to identify them from it." During a visit to the museum on Thursday one politician called for a parliamentary investigation into the trafficking of Brazil's cultural heritage. "This is trafficking; this is organized crime," state deputy Alice Portugal told reporters. Since the 1990s Brazil has gained a reputation for online crime. In 2004 a federal police report said the country was home to 80% of the world's hackers, while community groups such as the Google-run Orkut are, police say, frequently used to hawk drugs and stolen goods. Marcelo Marques, of the Sao Paulo organisation HackerTeen which trains young people in internet security, says many Brazilian criminals now view the internet as a "land without law". "Lots of people describe Brazil as a paradise for online evil-doers," he said. As details of the theft emerged this week bewildered revellers, who may have unwittingly given cover to the fleeing criminals, were left scratching their heads. "The people from the bloco started shouting, 'Get out the way, the police are coming through' and then two big police cars came past. I thought it was strange that the federal police were there," said Rafael Kalil, 25, one of several thousand carnival revellers following the parade. "Even if I had seen someone running off with the canvas, I'd probably have just thought it was part of carnival," he added. ////// http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/wright030306.html ///// http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/orlandini030306.html day traders are at a real disadvantage and this has a lot to do with technology, the very thing that gave them access to the markets in the first place. /////
Remove | Alert	Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Duncan	04-Mar-06, 11:19 AM (GMT)
10. " the more people that know about something; the less it tends to work out"
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/chapmand030306.html http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/appel030306.html ///// AMERICA'S GLORIOUS EMPIRE OF DEBT Bill Bonner Let us take a moment to stand back and gaze at America's great Empire of Debt. It is the largest edifice of debt ever put up. It sustains the most magnificent world economy ever assembled. It brings more wealth to more people than any system ever before devised. Not only is it incomparably effective, it is also immeasurably entertaining. For it has its burnished helmets and flying banners; its intellectuals and its gladiators; its Caesars, Antonys, Neros, and Caligulas. It has its temples, its forum, its Capitol, its senators; its praetorian guards; its via Appia; its proconsuls, centurions, and legions all over the world as well as its bread and its circuses in the homeland and its costly wars in periphery areas. The Roman Empire rested on a classical model of imperial finance. Beneath a complex and nuanced pyramid of relationships was a foundation of tribute formed with the hard rock of brute force. America's empire of debt, on the other hand, stands not as a solid pyramid of trust, authority, and power relationships, but as a rickety slum of delusion, fraud, and misapprehension. "My tax guy has been bugging me...You know, real estate is where it is at." In June 2005, NBC quoted a young woman who had bought a second home at a Colorado resort. According to the report, more than a third of the houses sold in the previous 12 months were not primary residences, but second homes or investments. Down at the bottom of the pyramid are petty agents spreading deceit and misinformation - such as the aforementioned "tax guy." You would think a young woman could trust her certified tax advisor to give her sound counsel. Instead, he urges her to get into the most bubbly property market in American history. Naturally, she went for it, aided no doubt by a whole industry of professional dissemblers. Press reports tell us that appraisers routinely stretch valuations to help close a deal. Mortgage lenders know perfectly well the appraisals are lies, but they wink at them with one eye while winking at the borrower's phony income declaration with the other. Again, according to the press reports, lenders no longer verify income claims. They have gone blind! In California, house prices have raced so far ahead of incomes that barely one in ten buyers can afford the median house. Yet thanks to "creative finance," more houses are being sold than ever before. Thus the foundation of the debt pyramid is laid down in a bed of mutual deceit and cupidity, and covered with another level of fabrications. Lenders do not stick around to see how the loans work out. Instead, they pretend the credits are good, and package the mortgages into convenient units so that investors can buy them. The financiers know damned well that many buyers can't really afford to pay for the houses they buy, but they see no point in mentioning it. Nor do the investors want to know. They're in on the scam, too. The smartest of them even have figured out how it works: The Fed holds down short-term rates below the inflation rate so that investors in long-term mortgage financing and buyers of U.S. Treasury obligations can make an easy profit. Further up the steps of imperial debt are whole legions of analysts, economists, and full-time obfuscators whose role is to make us all believe six impossible things before breakfast and a dozen more before dinner. Quack economists at the Bureau of Labor Statistics do to numbers what guards at Guantanamo did to prisoners. They rough them up so badly, they are ready to say anything. This abuse of statistics is what allows Americans to deceive themselves about their own economy. It is healthy, they say. It is growing. It is stable. All these so-called facts are little more than elaborate prevarications. Economists, commentators, and policymakers take up these distortions and add their own twists. It is obvious to anyone who bothers to think about it that an economy that spends more than it earns is in decline. But try to find an economist willing to say so! They've all become like rich notables in the time of Trajan, doing the emperor's work whether they are on his payroll or not. They will tell you the economy is expanding, but it is an expansion similar to what happens when a compulsive eater escapes from a fat farm. The longer he is on the loose, the worse off he becomes. On the issue of the trade deficit, they will say what the senators and consuls want to hear, as Levey and Brown did in Foreign Affairs magazine: "The United States' current account deficit and foreign debt are not dire threats to its global position, as would-be Cassandras warn. U.S. power is firmly grounded on economic superiority and financial stability that will not end soon." In fact, the story of international trade, circa 2005, is the most preposterous tale economists have ever heard. One nation buys things that it cannot afford and doesn't need with money it doesn't have. Another sells on credit to people who already cannot pay and builds more factories to increase output. Every level colludes with every other level to keep the flimflam going. On the banks of the Potomac, people of all classes, rank, and station are pleased to believe that all is well. And there, at the Federal Reserve headquarters, is another caste of loyal liars. Alan Greenspan and his fellow connivers not only urge citizens to mortgage their houses, buy SUVs, and commit other acts of wanton recklessness, they also control the nation's money and make sure that it plays along with the fraud. They do not even have to clip the precious metal out of the imperial coins; there is none in it. From the center to the furthest garrisons on the periphery, from the lowest rank to the highest - everyone, everywhere willingly, happily, and proudly participates in one of the greatest deceits of all time. At the bottom of the empire are wage slaves squandering borrowed money on imported doodads. The plebes gamble on adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs). The patricians gamble on hedge funds that speculate on huge swaths of mortgage debt. Near the top are Fed economists urging them to do it! And at the very pinnacle is a chief executive, modeled after Augustus, who cuts taxes while increasing spending on bread, circuses, and peripheral wars. The spectacle is breathtaking. And endlessly entertaining. We are humbled by the majesty of it. Everywhere we look, we see an exquisite but precarious balance between things that are equally and oppositely absurd. On the one side of the globe - in the Anglo-Saxon countries in general, but the United States in particular - are the consumers. On the other side - principally in Asia - are the producers. One side makes, the other takes. One saves, the other borrows. One produces, the other consumes. This is not the way it was meant to be. When America first stooped to Empire, she was a rising, robust, energetic, innovative young economy. And for the first six decades of her imperium - roughly from 1913 until 1977 - she profited from her competitive position. Every country to which she was able to extend her pax dollarum became a customer. Her businesses made a profit. But gradually, her commercial advantage faded and her industries aged. The very process of spreading the soft, warmth of her protection over the earth seemed to make it more fertile. Tough, weedy competitors sprouted all over the periphery of the empire - first in Europe, then in Japan, and later, throughout Asia, even are as she had never been able to dominate. By the early 21st century, the costs of maintaining her role as the world's only superpower, and its only imperial power, had risen in excess of five percent of her GDP, or $558 billion per year. Not only had she never figured out a good way to charge for providing the world with order, now order was working against her. The periphery economies grew faster. They had newer and better industries. They had higher savings levels and much lower labor rates. They had few of the costs of bread or circuses and none of the costs of policing the empire. They were freer, lighter, faster. Every day, the competitors took more of America's business, assets, and money. If the empire were an operating business, accountants would say it was losing money. The empire no longer pays because the entire Western world - including Japan - has lost its competitive edge. Globalization of the pax dollarum era served the United States well after World War II. The global economic system in the pax dollarium era was perfectly balanced. For every credit in Asia, there was an equal and opposite debit in the United States. And for every dollar's worth of demand from the United States, there was a dollar's worth of supply already waiting in a container in Hong Kong. But while the imperial finance system was flawless, its perfections were devastating. For the moment, Americans salute their imperial standards. They gratefully paste the flag to their car windows, their jackets, their hats, their beer mugs, their shirts and even their underwear. Americans are proud of their empire - and should be. Without it, they could never have gotten so far in debt. What central banker would fill his vault with Argentine pesos or Zimbabwe dollars? What drug dealer or arms seller would want Polish zlotys in payment? What insurance company would want to buy Bolivian or Kyrgzstan bonds to cover its long-dated liabilities? The dollar has not been convertible into gold for 34 years. Yet, people still take it as though it were as good as the yellow metal - only better. Ultimately, lending money to a foreign government is a bet that the government will put the squeeze on its own citizens to make sure you get paid. The United States doesn't even have to squeeze. When one foreign loan comes due, other foreigners practically line up to refinance it; it is as if they were bringing pastries to an extremely fat man, just to gawk and wonder when he might explode. Bill Bonner The Daily Reckoning www.dailyreckoning.com 3 March 2006 Editor's Note: Bill Bonner is the founder and editor of The Daily Reckoning. He is also the author, with Addison Wiggin, of The Wall Street Journal best seller Financial Reckoning Day: Surviving the Soft Depression of the 21st Century (John Wiley & Sons). In Bonner and Wiggin's follow-up book, Empire of Debt: The Rise of an Epic Financial Crisis, they wield their sardonic brand of humor to expose the nation for what it really is - an empire built on delusions. Daily Reckoning readers can buy their copy of Empire of Debt at a discount - just click on the link below: "Now Perhaps Someone Will Listen!" www.isecureonline.com/Reports/RCKN/EOD9 ///// The Gong Show Don Stott You all remember the Gong Show, don't you? These hideous, untalented goofs, would perform until they were 'gonged,' and taken off the stage. In Vaudeville days, the so-called 'stage hook' supposedly came out from the wings and hooked the performer off the stage, if he was untalented enough, much to the mirth of the audience. In the Gong Show, the audience also laughed heartily if a boob was gonged, and their performance cut short. Isn't it about time to gong the D.C.Gang? There are various reasons, and for that matter, the entire D.C. Gang's performance and totally messing up everything, is ample reason enough. Take statistics, as an example. The old GNP was replaced by the GDP, which has fewer measurements in it, so it nicely fits the requirement of under-reporting everything bad, and exaggerating everything, to make things look rosy. This includes the CPI, employment numbers, and actual inflation rate. The real CPI, is actually increasing at about 8% per year. During the Great Depression, the unemployment figures were actually of those out of work. During the Kennedy administration, a category of the unemployed was created, called the "discouraged workers," who were not counted as unemployed…even though they were. Then, during the Clinton Administration, those who had looked for work, couldn't find any, and had given up, were removed from the list also. The actual unemployment rate, is probably about 12%. Also during the Clinton Administration, month after month, the "jobs created" figure was exactly 250,000. The Clinton Gang did all sorts of gimmicking with the employment figures, by switching who was surveyed, which race, which age, etc. Had to keep Bill's voters happy, you know. After Kennedy, came LBJ, perhaps on of the most corrupt Presidents of modern times. When the GNP was given to him, if he didn't like it, he'd send it back to the Commerce Dept, and instruct them to "make it right." If it still wasn't the way he wanted it, he'd send it back again and again, till they made it what he thought was appropriate. Nixon didn't like the Dept of Labor, and rumor has it that he tried to get them to change the census figures…without success. After the stock market crash in 1987, the trade data was manipulated to help strengthen the falling dollar. THE CPI The Consumer Price Index can be traced back to 1888, when an index was created to measure the effects of a tariff act. In WW I, it was used to set the wages of ship builders, but was not widely used until after WW II. During the Great Depression, people knew it was bad, and they judged how bad it was by looking at the Dow. If stocks were down, it must be bad. After the war, the CPI was used to adjust auto-worker's contracts, and the cities surveyed were where autos were manufactured. The politicos eventually found out that if they could make the CPI look good, they could win an election. "Hey, our economy is booming, look at the CPI and employment figures." The fact that both were frauds, made no difference. The CPI is supposed to be the prices of a FIXED BASKET OF GOODS OVER TIME. You'd take steak, bread, milk, gasoline, home prices, etc and enter them. Next year, if the thing was to be accurate, you'd take the same items in the 'basket,' see what their prices were, and you'd have an accurate basis for statistics. But that doesn't get political hacks re-elected, so 'substitutions' have been made every year. No more house prices, but rent prices. That alone causes a huge amount of bad figures. Then if prices on an item go up, one can compare other items, or items from a different source or quality, and presto! One can manipulate the CPI as it seems necessary to make it look good,, and Joe Sixpack will believe them. The CPI used to measure by adding subtracting and dividing, the way most people figure things. This was called 'arithmetic weightings.' That wasn't keeping the figures down enough, so the method was changed by BLS (Bureau of labor Statistics) to 'geometric weighting.' If something goes up in price, it automatically gets a lower weight, and if it goes down in price, it automatically gets a higher price. Make sense? Not to me. In the 1990's, air pollution regulations were put in place, which forced adding a chemical to gasoline, which didn't work. It added ten cents per gallon to the price of gas, but it wasn't added to the CPI, because it was supposed to increase the 'value' of the gas. Guess what? When the stuff was taken out of the gas, the ten-cent increase, no longer added, had no effect on the CPI. When Dubya get elected, they came out with a C-CPI-U figure, which further makes the CPI figure absurd. The Social Security checks and payments are made on the basis of the CPI. They've got to keep it down, so they can screw the seniors, who worked and worked and worked to retire, and then get only a fraction of what they are supposed to get. According to one economist, if the CPI were figured as it was during the Jimmy Carter era, Social Security checks would be 70% higher! Obviously, there is no such thing as a "Social Security Trust Fund." The dough collected, goes straight into the general fund, whatever that is, but it certainly isn't in any "trust account." They've got to keep the CPI low, so they don't have to pay what they owe to us seniors. Then we come to the "trade deficit," which is grossly under-exaggerated also. In 2004, the 'official' deficit was $412 billion. However if GAAP (generally accepted accounting procedures) were used, it was a whopping $616 billion. Is that it? Absolutely not! When we get into un-funded liabilities, we must count the Social Security and Medicaid deficits, and for that year alone, it was $11 trillion, according to the D.C. Gang. However, if GAAP is used, the total deficit is about $51 trillion. Know how much that is? I don't, because it is inconceivable…literally. $1 million is more than 98% of Americans will ever see, and a trillion is a thousand billion, which is a thousand million, which is a thousand thousand, etc. Is it ever possible to be repaid? No, unless it is printed endlessly, as was done in Germany till the Reichsmark collapsed. Actually, the U.S. debt is larger than the reparations that Germany was made to pay…with tons of printed bills. Lots of Americans have a lot of debts. Hundreds of millions of dollars in debts. Mortgages have been increased, and the balances spent for stuff they didn't need. That's bad. But the D.C. Gang has no concept of what it is doing. They should have been gonged off the stage decades ago. In other words, these buffoons spend, spend, spend, and then spend some more. Why not? It isn't their money, and the more they spend, the more likely they are to get re-elected. Irresponsible? Of course! They lie through their teeth, smile to the boob tube cameras, and tell them how much legislation they passed, and how much 'bacon' they brought home to those good folks back home. Isn't old Senator Snort a great guy? Look what he got us yokels back home. What he 'got,' was ever decreasing value paper dollars, which buy ever less. The D.C. Gang have robbed the Social Security set by hundreds of billions of d0ollars with their screwy statistics, bookkeeping, and pronouncements. Is there even one honest politician in D.C. Actually there is but one, and that is Ron Paul. ARMAGEDDON Will it ever come? Armageddon for the U.S. anyway? Yes, it will come. The D.C. Gang, under the direction of Bush II, has spent more than any other President in history. Even the Iraq-Afghanistan books are being cooked, so we don't know the real cost. When Iraq was invaded, the soldiers found several 53 foot trailers chock full of hundred dollar bills. Were they counterfeit? It depends on how you look at it. Since the dollar was, for over 150 years anyway, a twentieth ounce of gold, it is obvious that no matter who printed them, they are counterfeit. Unless gold is once again $20.67 per ounce. But gold now approaches $600 per ounce, and then $1200, $1800, $1244, $3,000 etc. It's the same gold. Only what you buy it with has been debauched, and the debauching continues. Better get out of dollars, because those idiots who are performing on the D.C. stage, will eventually gong the entire U.S. economic system, and then we will have an economic dollar Armageddon. The D.C. Gang won't be gonged. They'll be there when the whole shebang goes down…whimpering about how good they did, and how much they tried. Get out of dollars, and protect yourself. March 3, 2006 Don Stott has been a precious metals dealer since 1977, has written five books, hundreds of columns, and his web site is www.coloradogold.com /////
Remove | Alert	Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Lock | Archive | Remove

Lobby | Topics | Previous Topic | Next Topic

Select another forum Lobby Futures Indices (Public/Moderated) (Conference)   |--Current Daily Commentary (2005) (Public)   |--Daily Commentary 2004 (Protected)   |--Daily Commentary 2003 (Protected)   |--Daily Commentary 2002 (Protected)   |--Daily Commentary 2001 (Protected)   |--Daily Commentary 2000 (Protected) Members (Private/Moderated) (Conference)   |--Recommended Reading List (Private)

Powered by DCF2000 ©1997-2000 by DCScripts. All rights reserved.